July 16, 2018

The major stock market averages are meandering aimlessly today (Dow & SPX flat). Financials are up 1.2% after some positive earnings announcements (see below). Telecoms are also higher in early trading, but most other sectors are in the red. The VIX Index jumped back up to 12.6, but that’s still considered very low. Most European markets will close down slightly today, and except for Japan, Asian markets were down overnight. Oil is taking a hit, down 3% after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said some US oil importers could get waivers to continue buying Iranian oil temporarily. “We want people to reduce oil purchases to zero, but in certain cases if people can’t do that overnight, we’ll consider exceptions.” Seems like a massive over-reaction by oil traders, but they’ve always been good at creating volatility where it’s not needed. Anyway, most other commodities are also in the red today. Year-to-date, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 5.7%. Bonds are trading modestly lower this morning as yields tick upward. But there is now only 10 basis points difference between the 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields. The yield curve continues to flatten.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 13, 2018

The major stock market averages fell at the open but quickly recovered. The Dow and SPX are now up 63 pts & .12%, respectively. The telecom sector is down over 1% (see below), but most sectors are modestly higher on the day. Retailers and transports are faring especially well. European markets are poised to close higher by about .25% and most of Asia was higher overnight. The US dollar rose almost 1% this week and is now up 3% on the year. WTI crude oil is trading back up to $70.80/barrel. Bonds are trading flat yet again.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 12, 2018

Stocks are rebounding from yesterday’s rout (Dow +209 pts; SPX .7%). The tech sector is up 1.5% in early trading; industrials and healthcare sectors are up 1%. Consumer staples and utilities are down slightly. The VIX Index crated back down to 12.8 and VIX August futures are trading around 14.5. So market volatility isn’t expected to spike in the near future. Bonds are mostly unchanged today and we’ve noticed that over the last month bond market volatility has tanked. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are at 2.76% and 2.85%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 11, 2018

Stocks sank at the open this morning as the Trump Administration proposed an additional 10% tariff on $200bil of imported Chinese goods. The Dow is currently down 157 pts and the SPX is down .6%. Semiconductors are down more than 2% in early trading. The worst performing sectors are energy, materials and industrials—all down over 1%. Only utilities are in the green. European stock markets are poised to close down over 1% and Asia was down over 1% last night. Most commodities are also trading lower. WTI crude oil is back down to $72.60/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are currently at 2.75% and 2.85%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 10, 2018

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning (Dow +150 pts; SPX +.33%). Ten of eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by utilities, energy and consumer staples. The VIX Index is trading at very low levels, around 12.7. European markets will close up about .5% today and most of Asia was up overnight. So overall this is a fairly positive session. WTI crude oil is down modestly to trade around $73.70/barrel. Recall that oil hasn’t been this high since the end of 2014. Most other commodities are lower on the day, including gold, copper, and iron ore. Bonds are trading roughly flat. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are currently at 2.76% and 2.86%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.