May 21, 2018

Stocks are surging after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin put a positive spin on trade negotiations with the Chinese. So don’t expect it to last. The Dow is currently up 280 pts and the SPX is up .65%. All eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by industrials (+1.5%) and financials (+.8%). Commodities are  mostly higher as well. WTI crude oil is up 1% to trade around $72/barrel. The march higher continues, and investors are starting to think about commodity inflation’s eventual impact on consumer spending the corporate earnings. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.90% and 3.01%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 18, 2018

Stocks opened mixed this morning as investors await results of trade talks with China. The Dow is flat and the SPX is down .14%. Industrials and biotechs are up modestly, but most everything else is trading down. European markets are poised to close a bit lower. The VIX Index is back up around 13.6. The dollar continues to slowly strengthen and yet commodities are also rising. The dollar is now up 1.7% for the year and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 2.6%. WTI crude is unchanged today at $71.40/barrel. Bonds are trading higher as yields dip. The 5-year Treasury yield is back down around 2.90% and 3.01%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 17, 2018

Stocks opened lower today but quickly turned around. The Dow is currently flat and the SPX is up .12%. Energy (+1.2%) is the big winner as oil prices rose to 3 ½ year highs. Industrials, consumer staples and materials are also rebounding after a tough March/April. Europe closed up about .8% and Asia was mixed overnight. Emerging markets stocks are down about 1% today and have underperformed over the last month. The VIX Index is down again, trading under 13. The dollar is up again (+1.5% on the year) and despite that oil prices have rallied over the last several months. WTI crude oil touched $71.90/barrel for the first time since November 2014. Recently, oil has responded to President Trump’s threats to reestablish trade sanctions with Iran. Oil demand is rising. Morgan Stanley analysts are predicting $90/barrel crude oil by 2020. Bonds are trading slightly lower today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.93% and 3.11%, respectively. The next resistance level for the 10-year is 3.18%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 16, 2018

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow flat; SPX +.17%). Cyclical sectors—consumer discretion, materials, tech, industrials—are leading the way. Utilities and real estate, however, are extending declines. Emerging markets are up 1% (now flat on the year). The VIX Index is trading back down under 14. Trade volume is light. The dollar is up again today and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is down .4% to trade around $71/barrel. And by the way, the DOE says total US oil production is up around 10.7 million barrels per day—a record high. Bonds are selling off again. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 2.92% and the 10-year yield is up around 3.08%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 15, 2018

Stocks opened lower this morning. The Dow is currently down 243 pts and the SPX is down .8%. The Nasdaq is off 1%. All eleven major market sectors are in the red, led by real estate (-1.6%), healthcare (-1.3%), tech (-1.2%), and utilities (-1.1%). The only bright spots today are banks and small-caps. The VIX Index jumped up to 14.2 in early trading and VIX June futures are trading around 15.2. So there’s no real fear out there. The dollar is higher on better than expected economic data and most commodities are lower—even gold. WTI crude oil is down around $70.60/barrel. OPEC just reported that the global oversupply in oil has been virtually eliminated. Bonds are selling off as interest rates rise. The 5-year Treasury note yield is up around 2.91% and the 10-year is  trading at 3.07% for the first time since 2011. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.