November 8, 2018

November 8, 2018

Stocks opened mixed today (Dow +65 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq -.3%). Banks (+.9%) and retailers (+.8%) are the clear leaders. On the other hand, utilities and energy stocks are down between .7% and 1%. It’s a bit surprising that anything is up after yesterday’s monster rally, which saw the SPX up 2%. The VIX Index dove to 16 yesterday and VIX December futures are down around 16.8. Traders are furiously debating whether October’s correction will resume, or whether the market is setting up for a holiday rally. Meanwhile, the SPX is now only 4.5% off of its all-time high. The US dollar is stronger today and not surprisingly, emerging markets stocks (i.e. iShares Emerging Markets ETF) are down over 1.5% today. Commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is down over 1% again this morning to trade around $60.75/barrel. Some market commentators are beginning to panic because oil has fallen 20% from its early October highs. Here again, a debate is emerging as to whether global oil demand is falling. The last time oil fell 20% was the first half of 2017. Bonds are mostly unchanged as yields hover in place awaiting the Fed announcement later today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are trading at 3.08% and 3.23%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 7, 2018

November 7, 2018

The stock market surged higher in the wake of mid-term elections that turned out exactly as Wall Street expected. Investors are embracing gridlock in Washington. The Dow and SPX are currently up 348 pts and 1.5%, respectively. All eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by tech, healthcare and consumer discretion. Breathing a sigh of relief that the Democrats didn’t take the US Senate, pharmaceutical and biotech stocks are up well over 1-2% in early trading. Banks are only modestly higher, sticking out like a sore thumb. European markets are poised to close up over 1% but most of Asia was down overnight. The US dollar is weaker on the day, but that’s not helping commodities much. WTI crude oil is down 1% to trade around $61.50/barrel (back to April lows). The slide in energy prices will certainly help keep inflation in check in the fourth quarter. Bonds are moving higher in price, lower in yield today. That’s probably because Democratic control of the House may limit President Trump’s ability to push for higher government spending (and deficits).


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 6, 2018

November 6, 2018

Stocks opened higher again today as voting gets underway. The Dow is currently up 114 pts and the SPX is up .4%. Most major market sectors are in the green, led by materials (+1%) and industrials (+1%). Those two groups are widely seen as the primary beneficiaries from a potentially split congress that may only be able to agree on higher infrastructure spending. In addition, the fact that stocks are rising seems to suggest that the “Blue Wave” won’t show up at the polls. Further, if investors sniffed a return of Democratic control in both the House and Senate, you’d at least see healthcare stocks falling today. The point is, market action is telling us what investors expect: gridlock. The VIX Index is still hovering around 20, but VIX December futures fell to 18.5 today. So the options market doesn’t seem to expect a continuation of the stock market correction. We’ll see. Commodities are trading mostly lower today. WTI crude oil fell 2.4% to $61.60/barrel after President Trump granted Iran a trade sanction waiver. Bonds are trading modestly lower as interest rates tick higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up around 3.04% (the 2018 high is 3.07%). The 10-year yield is trading at 3.21% vs. the 2018 high of 3.23%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 5, 2018

November 5, 2018

The major stock market averages are higher this morning in front of the mid-term elections. The Dow is currently up 158 pts and the SPX is up .3%. Several sectors are up more than 1%: real estate, utilities, financials, consumer staples and energy. On the other hand, communications services, tech and consumer discretionary sectors are all down .6% to 1%. The FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix & Google) are selling off and boring value stocks are catching a bid. The VIX Index is back up around 20, but VIX December futures are trading down around 19. So traders are perhaps expecting a little more volatility around the election. The US dollar is modestly weaker today and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up .4%. WTI crude is bouncing up toward $64/barrel after a massive month-long slide. Bonds are trading slightly higher today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 3.02% and 3.19%, respectively. We’re not hearing much chatter about the yield curve lately. That’s because the curve is steepening at the same time rates are rising. This is seen as a normal reaction to strong economic growth. The CEO of Federal Realty (FRT) says interest rates are only rising because the economy is doing well. “I gotta tell you, things look pretty good.”


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 1, 2018

November 1, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher this morning after a Tweet by President Trump saying he has re-engaged China’s president regarding trade tensions. The Dow is currently up 227 pts and the SPX is up .7%. Most sectors are rising, led by materials (+3%), and industrials (+1.5%). Those two groups are viewed as having the most sensitivity to trade tariffs.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 30, 2018

The major stock market averages opened sharply higher this morning (Dow +220 pts; SPX .8%). Ten of eleven sectors are in the green, led by real estate (+2%) and communications (+1.8%). In addition, semiconductors, transports, retailers, oil producers and biotechs are up nicely. Foreign stock markets are mixed today, with European indexes down about .3% but Japan’s Nikkei was up 1.4% and China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%. The US dollar continues to strengthen (up 2% this month and 5% on the year) and that is putting some pressure on commodities. WTI crude oil is down slightly to trade around $66.60/barrel. Copper is still down over 20% this year. Gold is down .4% today and about 6% on the year. Bonds are trading a bit lower as yields tick upward again. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up to 2.94% and the 10-year is up around 3.10%.

All the heavy hitters are weighing in on this stock market correction. Bob Doll, Nuveen’s Chief Equity Strategist, doesn’t see the correction leading to a bear market. “It would be unlikely to have a bear market while the economy is doing well. Corrections, they can happen anytime unannounced. Bear markets are usually associated with an economic problem, i.e. recession.” Rich Bernstein is “quite shocked” that investors are so worried about peak earnings. “Peak earnings leads one to believe that a profits recession is imminent, that within a quarter or two we’re going to have negative earnings growth.” That is not a realistic expectation. He does concede that we are seeing peak earnings growth of about 24%. That rate of growth is unsustainably high and will be decelerating to about 15% next year. But that is still very good earnings growth and can help sustain further upside in the stock market.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 29, 2018

October 29, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning. The Dow is currently up 105 pts and the SPX is up .7%. Utilities, consumer staples, materials, real estate, healthcare and financials are all up over 1% at the moment. Energy and consumer discretionary sectors are down slightly. The VIX Index, a measure of traders’ fear, fell back to 24 after spiking above 25 on Friday. European stock markets will close up over 1% and Asia was mixed overnight. China’s markets, however, are still under pressure. The Shanghai Composite Index is down over 28% this year in local currency terms. The dollar is a bit stronger today against a basket of foreign currencies, and up nearly 5% in 2018. Wall Streeters are increasingly concerned that a stronger dollar will hurt US businesses selling overseas. A few blue-chip companies have said so in recent days. Commodities are trading lower. WTI crude oil is down .6% to trade at $67.17/barrel. Bonds are selling off today after a pretty strong run over the last week or so. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields ticked up to 2.94% and 3.10%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 19, 2018

October 19, 2018

Stocks teeter-tottered up this morning after yesterday’s slide. The Dow and SPX are currently up 150 pts and .3%, respectively. Defensive sectors—consumer staples, utilities—are up nearly 2% in early trading. To a lesser degree, financials and technology are participating as well. European stock markets ended mostly lower. China’s stock markets began the session in the red but ended higher after state-owned investment funds were directed to buy stocks. Commodities are uniformly higher today, with oil beginning to recover from its two-week decline. WTI crude oil is back up around $69.50/barrel. Bonds are selling off a bit as yields head higher. The 5-year Treasury note yield is back up around 3.06% and the 1-year yield ticked up to 3.20%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 18, 2018

October 18, 2018

Stocks gapped down at the open today (Dow -280 pts; SPX -1.27%). Tech, telecom and consumer discretionary sectors are all down more than 1.5%. Utilities and real estate sectors are up slightly. So today’s risk-off trading session flips the switch from yesterday’s risk-on bent. Th VIX Index bounced back up to 18.7 today. European markets will close a bit lower and most of Asia was down overnight. The dollar is strengthening a bit on China concerns (see below). Commodities are mostly lower in early trading, with WTI crude oil pulling back under $70/barrel. Bonds are trading modestly higher as you would expect on a risk-off day. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields edged down to 3.03% and 3.17%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 17, 2018

October 17, 2018

Stocks fell at the open but quickly turned around. At the moment, the Dow is flat and the SPX is up .13%. The market continues to flip-flop from one day to the next. For the most part, cyclical sectors—energy, tech, discretionary, materials—are leading to the downside while defensives—telecom, healthcare and staples—are trading higher. And wonder of all wonders, the financial sectors is actually showing some signs of life (+1.3%). European stock markets closed down about .5% whereas Asia was mostly higher overnight. Japan’s Nikkei, by the way, has clawed back to flat for the year. Commodities are mixed in early trading. After climbing to $76/barrel early this month, WTI crude oil has fallen back to $70/barrel. Bonds are modestly lower in price, and less risky Treasury bonds are unchanged while corporate bonds are in the red. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 3.02% and 3.16%, respectively. Year-to-date, the entire bond market has been a loser because inflation and interest rates have trended gradually higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

Third Quarter 2018 Bond and Stock Market Overview

Third Quarter 2018 Bond and Stock Market Overview

After stocks dropped in the 1st quarter, the market treaded water during the 2nd quarter, only to come roaring back in the third quarter.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both returned 3% or more in July and August. A year-to-date return of 8.8% for the Dow and 10.6% for the S&P 500. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 16, 2018

October 16, 2018

The major stock market averages screamed higher in early trading, reversing the prior week’s trend. The Dow is currently up 374 pts and the SPX is up 1.5%. So far, this is the Dow’s best day in two months. All eleven market sectors are in the green, led by tech and healthcare (+2%). Even financials are participating to some extent. The VIX Index gapped down below 19 suggesting traders are increasingly less nervous about the near-term. European stock markets are poised to close up well over 1% and most of Asia was up overnight (except China). The dollar is flat against a basket of foreign currencies after having declined a bit over the last week. Commodities are mixed in early trading. WTI crude oil is unchanged at $71.70/barrel. Gold is up slightly today (& up about 4% over the last two weeks). Bonds are trading modestly lower as yields tick up. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury Note yields are back up around 3.03% and 3.17%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 15, 2018

October 15, 2018

Stocks are mixed without direction after last week’s declines. At the moment, the Dow is down 47 pts, the SPX is down .4% and the Nasdaq is down .8%. Cyclical sectors are leading to the downside. The tech sector is down 1.3%; energy is down .7%; consumer discretionary is down .5%. On the other hand, defensives like utilities and real estate are catching a bid. Gold miners are up nearly 2%. The VIX Index is still hovering north of 20, belying some lingering fear from last week. European markets will close about .5% higher although most of Asia was down overnight. The dollar is weaker today, continuing a 1-week trend. WTI crude oil is down a bit to trade around $71.17/barrel. Bonds are trading slightly lower on the day as yields tick higher. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields rebounded to 3.01% and 3.16%, respectively. Remember, when stocks were tanking last week, the 10-year jumped briefly to 3.23%. So rates have backed down.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 12, 2018

October 12, 2018

The major stock market averages rebounded today at the open, but don’t expect it to last in front of a weekend. The Dow is currently up 87 pts and the SPX is up .7%. The market is, in technical terms, temporarily oversold. As of yesterday’s close, two-thirds of the S&P 500 was in correction territory (i.e. down 10% or more). At the moment, technology and consumer discretionary sectors are up over 1.3%. They took the brunt of selling over the last week. Most sectors are joining in the relief rally, save financials, energy, industrials and utilities. Despite some decent earnings announcements today, traders aren’t buying the banks. The VIX Index drifted down to 22 from 25 yesterday. European markets also gapped up at the open but are now poised to close down slightly. The bond market is mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 3.0% and 3.15%, respectively. The yield curve steepened significantly over the past week but isn’t doing much today.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 11, 2018

October 11, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher but quickly gave way. The Dow is now down 230 pts and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is down 1% on the session. This is follow-through from yesterday’s rout, when the SPX gave up about 3%. Unlike yesterday, however, the tech sector is actually up slightly, whereas utilities and real estate sectors are down well over 1%. The energy sector is down 1.6% in early trading as oil prices retreat. The SPX is now about 6.6% off of its all-time high of about 2940. This morning, the index pulled back to a long-term support level of about 2,745. If today’s low holds, this will be viewed as a very orderly mini-correction.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 8, 2018

October 8, 2018

Stocks sank at the open today, following on Friday’s declines. The Dow is currently down 190 pts and the SPX is down .65%. Weirdly, utilities, real estate and consumer staples sectors are up sharply today while the rest of the market is down. I say that because the primary concern for most investors over the last week has been rapidly rising interest rates. And it is axiomatic that the sectors listed above don’t typically fare well when rates are rising. European markets will close down about 1% as the Italian banking sector looks weaker. Asian markets were also down overnight. The VIX Index—a gauge of fear among traders—jumped to 17.4 today, the highest in a little over a month. The dollar is stronger against a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is down around $74/barrel. Gold and copper are also lower on the day.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 4, 2018

October 4, 2018

Stocks sank at the open on Fed/interest rate fears. The Dow is currently down 255 pts and the SPX is down .9%. Bank—and strangely enough utilities—are just about the only groups posing gains in early trading. Consumer discretionary, healthcare, technology and telecommunications sectors are all down more than 1%. The VIX Index is back up around 13.3, as you might expect. European stock markets are down between .8% and 1.2% in today’s session. Most of Asia was down overnight with the notable exception of China, which saw gains of about 1%. The dollar is flat on the day and commodities are mostly lower. Bonds are also selling off as yields rise. The 10-year Treasury yield just climbed to 3.20% for the first time in seven years. And since short-term yields aren’t up as much, the yield curve is the steepest it has been in two months.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 2, 2018

October 2, 2018

Stocks opened higher again this morning (Dow +131 pts; SPX +.16%). There’s not much news for traders to chew on today. Utilities are bouncing back 1.3% after having corrected in September. At the same time, materials, tech and energy are trading higher. Biotechs, banks and transports are in the red. Small-caps are taking a hit (-2% in 2 days) after a new trade agreement was reached with Canada. Remember, small-caps were seen as a safe haven investment when trade tensions were at their worst. European stock markets were lower in today’s session on concerns about Italy’s budget deficits. The fact that the dollar is stronger and Treasury yields are lower has to do with Italy as well. Whenever European finances or economic growth look a bit uncertain, global investors tend to buy US Treasury bonds. So the 10-year Treasury yield dipped back down to 3.05%. And that, of course, is why utility stocks are rising today.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 1, 2018

October 1, 2018

Stocks surged at the open this morning (Dow +250 pts; SPX +.65%). Materials, industrial and energy sectors are all up over 1% in early trading. Only the most interest rate sensitive sectors—utilities and real estate—are in the red. The VIX Index fell below 12 and most global equities rallied. Even Chinese markets participated last night (Shanghai Composite +1%). The dollar is a little stronger today and commodities are mixed. Gold, copper and iron ore are falling in price, whereas WTI crude oil is up around $73.90/barrel. Despite trade war fears, global oil demand is healthy and the perceived constraint—what with trade sanctions in Iran & assorted problems in Venezuela—is supply. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Longer-term Treasuries are selling off a bit. The 10-year Treasury yield backed up to 3.06%. On the other hand, junk bonds are surging after a new trade deal with Canada was announced (see below).


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 27, 2018

September 27, 2018

Stocks surged at the open (Dow +159 pts; SPX +.66%) following yesterday’s Federal Reserve interest rate hike. I don’t see any good reason for the rally and wouldn’t be surprised to see it selloff this afternoon. At the moment, ten of eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by the newly renamed Communications Services sector (+1.2%). Utilities are also rebounding 1% and the tech sector is up .7%. European markets are also broadly higher by about .5% although Asia was down overnight. After the Fed meeting (see below), the dollar shot up .6% vs. a basket of foreign currencies. That is putting a lid on commodity gains. Copper, gold, and iron ore are lower on the day. WTI crude oil, however, is back up over $72/barrel. Bonds are, not surprisingly, selling off. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up around 2.96% and 3.07%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.