December 14, 2017

Stocks gapped up again today, but quickly fell flat (Dow +1 pt; SPX flat). The tech sector is trading higher, but telecoms, materials and healthcare are in the red. The VIX Index is trading down to 9.8. European markets are poised to close .3% lower. The dollar is a bit stronger against the Euro after the European Central Bank (ECB) said Eurozone inflation will remain low for the foreseeable future. In other words, there is no reason to rush toward reducing monetary stimulus. Commodities are trading mixed. WTI crude oil is holding steady at $57.75/barrel. Bonds prices are slightly lower today. The 5-year Treasury note yield is up toward 2.15%. The 10-year yield is back up to 2.37%. In fact, the 10-year has been trading in a very tight range of 2.32% to 2.40% for the past month. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee raised its short-term policy interest rate by .25% to a target range of 1.25% to 1.50%. The move was widely expected. And by the way, the Fed lowered its forecast for unemployment in 2018 to just 3.9%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 12, 2017

Stocks surged at the open (Dow +129 pts; SPX +.28%). Believe it or not, telecoms are leading the way (+1.8%). Banks and pharmaceuticals are also up over .8%. On the other hand, the utilities sectors is down 1% in early trading. European markets are poised to close modestly higher. The VIX Index is back up to 9.5. WTI crude oil is down .8% to $57.48/barrel (still right around 2+year highs). Bonds are selling off this morning and yields are moving up after some higher than expected inflation data. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 2.18%, the highest since April 2011. The 10-year yield is also picking up to trade around 2.42%. The next resistance level is 2.57%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 8, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +76 pts; SPX +.4%). Most market sectors are in the green, led by healthcare and energy. The only sectors retreating are utilities and consumer staples. The VIX Index is down to 9.7 and VIX January futures are trading down around 12.4. The dollar is stronger on the day due to some strong economic data. Commodities are also higher. WTI crude oil is back up to $57.45/barrel. Bonds are little changed but the yield curve steepened just a bit. The 5-year Treasury yield is fat at 2.14% and the 10-year is up around 2.37%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 7, 2017

Stocks opened modestly higher today (Dow +74 pts; SPX +.3%). Cyclicals are leading the way; semiconductors, biotechs and transports are up about 1%. Utilities and consumer staples are losing ground. European markets will close about .2% higher and Asia was mostly higher overnight. The VIX Index is back down around 10.5 and VIX January futures are back down to 12.8. Commodities are mostly lower again today. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has lost 2.2% so far this month. WTI crude oil is bouncing back toward $56.40/barrel. Bonds prices are slightly higher today, lower in yield. The 5-year Treasury yield is at 2.12% and the 10-year is at 2.33%. The yield curve is flattening again. Over the course of 2017 the difference between the 2-year and 10-year yields has shrunk to .52% from 1.25%. Most institutional investors believe that the yield curve will probably invert—that is, short-term yields will exceed long-term yields—in the second half of 2018.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 6, 2017

Stocks opened mixed today—the Dow and SPX are currently flat. Utilities opened lower but quickly about-faced and are up about .3%. Tech is rebounding roughly .7%. Telecoms and energy, however, are down 1% in early trading. European markets are poised to close lower and Asia was down overnight. UBS says it expects China’s economic growth to decelerate to around 6.5% next year. Not surprisingly, most commodities are in the red today. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down about 1%. WTI crude oil is down 2% to about $56.30/barrel despite a draw-down in US oil inventories. Bonds are trading higher today after a two-week selloff. The 5-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.12% and the 10-year is down to 2.32%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.