August 16, 2018

August 16, 2018

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning (Dow +365 pts; SPX +.94%). Consumer discretionary, financials, industrials and telecom sectors are all up over 1% in early trading. The VIX Index, which spiked to nearly 15 this week, sank back under 13 today. European markets will close up about .8%, whereas most of Asia was down overnight. The dollar is down slightly, giving a little room for commodities to rise. WTI crude oil is back up around $65.50/barrel. Copper is up nicely after taking a massive 20%+ beating this year. Bonds are trading roughly sideways. The 5-year Treasury yield at 2.76% hasn’t moved much in a week. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up slightly to 2.89%. The yield curve—difference between the 10-year and 2-year—is as flat as it has been this year.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 13, 2018

August 13, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning but quickly faded on Turkey fears. The Dow and SPX are currently down 100 pts & .23%, respectively. Retailers, semiconductors and some FAANG stocks are clinging to small gains, but most everything else is in the red. The VIX Index  is trading up around 14, the highest in two weeks but still considered very low. Exchange trade volume is 11% below normal levels for this time of year, according to Bloomberg. European markets are down .5% and most of Asia was down more than 1% last night. The dollar appreciated about 1.2% over the last week as emerging markets currencies are losing ground. Not surprisingly, commodities are falling in value. WTI crude oil is down 1% to trade around $66.60/barrel. Remember, oil was over $70/barrel a month ago. Bonds are slightly lower in today’s trade. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.74% and the 10-year is trading at 2.87%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 9, 2018

August 9, 2018

US stock markets gapped down at the open this morning (Dow -168 pts; SPX -.5%). All eleven major market sectors are in the red. The worst performing groups are semiconductors and banks. The VIX Index jumped up to 12.6 today. European stock markets are down over 1% and Asia was mostly lower overnight. Commodities are mixed even though the dollar is much stronger today. WTI crude oil is trading back up around $67.60/barrel. Bonds are higher in price, lower in yield today. This is likely due to two factors: Turkey’s growing crisis (see below) and the CPI report (see below). The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 2.88%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 9, 2018

August 9, 2018

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow -30 pts; SPX flat). It’s still a trader’s market with lots of back-and-forth but no trend. But now we’re in August and there’s no trade volume to speak of. So in some respects the day-to-day commentary doesn’t matter much. Today’s trade action—defensives leading; cyclicals mostly lagging; foreign markets lower—is exactly the opposite of what we saw earlier this week. The VIX Index—which attempts to measure investor fear—is down around 10.8. The dollar is appreciating in value against a basket of foreign currencies, and is now up 3.5% on the year. WTI crude oil is up modestly to trade around $67.10/barrel. Bonds are trading slightly higher today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back down around 2.81% and 2.94%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 8, 2018

August 8, 2018

Stocks opened lower today on escalating trade tensions with China. The Dow is currently down 38 pts and the SPX is flat.  Losses are led by energy as well as the defensive sectors. On the other hand, banks, semiconductors and retailers are higher in early trading. Most European markets are poised to close lower by .3% and China’s stock market gave up the prior session’s gains last night. WTI crude oil sank nearly 4% to trade at $65.50/barrel after Chinese import data revealed modestly lower oil demand over the last few months. Traders are eager to jump to the conclusion that trade tariffs are damaging commodity demand. The fact is that economists are expecting global oil demand to grow 1.5% this year vs. the historical average 1%. So don’t be surprised if oil prices continue the uneven march higher. Bonds are mixed in today’s trade. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is up .1% (but is still down 6% this year). Corporate bonds—represented by the iShares IBOXX Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) are down about .1% today. Yields aren’t moving much. The yield curve remains pretty flat; the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields is hovering around .30%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.