December 31, 2018

December 31, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning but quickly lost steam. The Dow is currently up 150 pts and the SPX is up .33%. Healthcare is the best performing group in early trading, up about 1%. Retailers and tech stocks are also in the green. On the other hand, utilities & real estate sectors are in the red. The VIX Index fell to 27 this morning; the fear index spiked to 36 on Christmas Eve. Foreign markets were mostly higher in today’s session. Even China’s Shanghai Composite Index picked itself up off the floor. It climbed .4% overnight but is still down something like 28% for the year. It’s no secret that the emerging trade war has dented China’s economic momentum. Commodities are mixed today: copper -1.8%; oil flat; gold flat; iron ore +.2%. But the overall trend has been lower; during 2018 the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell nearly 13%. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.54% and 2.70%, respectively. Bond traders are saying the 2.70% mark is a key psychological support level and if the 10-year falls below that it will likely continue falling toward 2.6%. By the way, for all the massive volatility in the bond market this year, the 10-year yield will have gained a mere 27 basis points (.27%) during 2018.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 27, 2018

December 27, 2018

The major stock market averages lurched lower in early trading. The Dow is currently down 359 pts and the SPX is about 1.7% lower. The energy sector—down 2%--is the worst-performing. Most sectors are down more than 1% in early trading. The VIX Index—a common gauge of fear among traders—is back up around 33. European stock markets fell between 1.5% and 3% today. Asian markets were mixed overnight. The dollar is weaker today (and so far this month). WTI crude is trading back down around $45/barrel.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 26, 2018

The major stock market averages are attempting to recover from the worst Christmas Eve trading session since the Great Depression. At the moment, the Dow is up 400 pts and the SPX is up 2%. The consumer discretionary sector is up 3.4%, the energy sector is up 3%, healthcare & tech are up over 2%. Utilities are now losing steam after recently hitting all-time highs. The VIX Index, which spiked to 36 on Monday, is back down around 34.7. These levels, indicating heightened fear among traders, were last seen during the February stock market correction. Traders, by the way, tend to invest cash after spikes in the VIX. Most commodities are trading higher today. WTI crude oil is back up to $45.30/barrel. Gold is up .7 % at the moment, but is still down year-to-date. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Junk bonds are rallying today, but are still down around 10% year-to-date. Treasury bonds are selling off after a massive 6-week rally. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.58% and 2.75%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 20, 2018

December 20, 2018

Stocks sagged at the open again today following another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (see below). The Dow is currently down 367 pts and the SPX is down 1.5%. This looks like another risk-off day, with cyclical sectors like tech, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors down the most. The utilities sector is up 1% as retail investors look for safety. European markets are down more than 1% and Asian markets were down at least that much overnight. The dollar is weaker today after the Federal Reserve downgraded its outlook for US economic growth (see below). Copper and gold are trading higher, but WTI crude oil fell back to $46.20/barrel. Believe it or not, most of the bond market is trading lower as well. High-grade corporates and junk bonds resumed their slide. Long-term Treasury bonds, however, are moving higher in response to the Fed meeting. The 10-year Treasury note yield is hovering around 2.77%, the lowest level since April.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 19, 2018

Stocks surged at the open this morning, but who knows how the session with end? The Dow is currently up 175 pts and the SPX is up .68%. A few market sectors are up about 1%: energy, financials, materials. Most everything is trading higher, save gold miners and semiconductors. European markets are up about .3% to .9%, although Asia was mixed overnight. WTI crude oil, which has fallen out of bed since early October, is up 3% to about $47.65/barrel. OPEC says it will reduce production by about 1.2 million barrels per day but those cuts won’t go into effect until next month. At the moment, production in the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia is near record levels. Bonds are trading modestly higher in front of the Fed meeting today (see below). Since early November, bonds have done very well and that of course means interest rates have fallen. The 2-year Treasury note tends to move along with expectations for Fed rate hikes, and since November 8th the 2-year yield has declined to 2.66% from 3.1%. That probably means bond traders are predicting a pause in monetary tightening.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 18, 2018

December 18, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow 243 pts; SPX .5%) in an attempt to recover from yesterday’s rout. A number of market sectors are up about 1%: industrials, real estate, materials, communications services and consumer discretionary. Energy stocks are down following oil prices. WTI crude oil fell to a 15-month low after a report that global oil production is rising. European stock markets closed down about .7% and Asian markets were down overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is down 22% so far this year in local currency terms (or about 26% in dollar terms). Commodities are mixed in early trading. As mentioned, WTI crude oil is down around $47/barrel (down 36% since early October. Consensus Wall Street opinion is that global oil demand is just fine, but supply is temporarily too high. As I’ve mentioned before, there is a lot of room for traders and governments to manipulate oil prices. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Treasury bonds are rising but junk bonds are falling in price. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are back down to 2.67% and 2.83%. Remember last summer when traders were freaking out over rising interest rates? They feared higher mortgage & auto loan rates and worried incessantly that the Federal Reserve would have to keep hiking rates to keep pace. Well, those concerns seem in the distant past now. We’re all wondering what the bond market’s massive volatility is trying to tell us.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 17, 2018

December 17, 2018

The major stock market averages fell at the open but quickly pared losses. At the moment, the Dow and SPX are down 104 pts and .5%, respectively. Utilities and real estate sectors are down over 1% in early trading, whereas the financial sector is finally catching a bid. Semiconductors are up 1% as well. The VIX Index is up around 22.5 and VIX January futures are up around 21. That tells us traders are still nervous and expect continued volatility. The dollar is a bit weaker today, but commodities aren’t uniformly higher. WTI crude oil fell back to $50/barrel. Copper is down again—now -20% on the year. That ought to tell you China’s economy is slowing. Bonds are catching a bid as interest rates tick lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 2.71% and 2.86%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 13, 2018

December 13, 2018

Stocks opened modestly higher again today, but soon faded. The Dow is now up 10 pts on the day and the SPX is down .28%. Transports, retailers and banks are down. REITs and utilities are trading higher along with bonds. Commodities are broadly higher, trying to recover from a rough year. WTI crude is trading over $52/barrel. Year-to-date, copper is still down 19%, gold is down 5%, and oil is down about 10%. The iShares Global Agriculture Producers ETF (VEGI) is down nearly 7%. Despite strong economic growth and corporate earnings, cyclical risk-on sectors like energy, materials and industrials have not fared well in 2018.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 12, 2018

December 12, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +350 pts; SPX +1.57%). A number of sectors are up more than 1.5% in early trading: tech, communications services, energy, healthcare, industrials and consumer discretionary. Semiconductor stocks are rallying sharply for the second consecutive session. The SOX Index is trying to recover from a pretty deep 21% correction this year. The VIX Index is down around 20.6 and VIX January futures are trading down around 20, suggesting traders are less fearful than they were a week ago. The dollar is weaker on a benign inflation report (see below). That—along with OPEC’s decision to cut output—is helping oil prices recover. WTI crude is back up around $52.30/barrel. Bonds are mixed in early trading. For the second straight session, junk bonds are rallying; trying to recover from a 7% correction this year. Remember, junk bonds are seen as leading indicator of economic growth. In addition, we’re seeing Treasury bonds sell off for the third consecutive session. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up around 2.76% and 2.90%. For what it’s worth, the bond market seems to suggest that the worst of the stock market correction is past.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 11, 2018

December 11, 2018

Stocks rose at the open after a report suggesting progress in negotiating some sort of de-escalation of the trade war. The Dow is currently up 37 pts and the SPX is up .45%. The best performing groups in early trading are semiconductors, biotechs and retailers. The European markets closed up about 1.6% and most of Asia was up overnight. The dollar is stronger yet again, but WTI crude oil is up around $51.60/barrel. Bonds are trading modestly higher again. For the first time in a while we’re seeing a little rally in junk bonds. In Treasuries, we’re seeing short and long yields continue to converge. That is, you’re not picking up much additional yield for investing in longer-dated notes. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are sitting at 2.71% and 2.85%, respectively. So yield curve concerns are front and center.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 10, 2018

December 10, 2018

Stocks sank at the open again this morning. The Dow is currently off 367 pts and the SPX is down 1.25%. Energy and financials are worst-performing, down over 2.5%. Even the more defensive utilities sector is down nearly 1%. The VIX Index, a gauge of fear among traders, is up around 25, matching late October levels. WTI crude oil is down 2% to trade around $51.50/barrel. Most other commodities are down on the day and the dollar is stronger. Bonds are trading flat to slightly higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 7, 2018

December 7, 2018

Stocks headed lower again today (Dow -550 pts; SPX -2%). Ten of 11 major market sectors are down, led by tech (-3.1%). Utilities is the only bright spot +.6%). The VIX Index is back up to 24. WTI crude oil shot up toward $52.60/barrel after OPEC agreed to cut back oil production targets. Globally, oil is temporary over-supplied due to geopolitical events and government manipulation. Crude tumbled from roughly $76/barrel to $50/barrel in just 2 ½ months. Bears are taking this as a sign of an economic slowdown.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

SPECIAL MARKET UPDATE 12/6/18 14:50

After a hideous open that took the Dow down by 770 points and dropped the S&P 500 Index nearly 3%, the financial news media could be forgiven a little panic. But after a rapid flush, stocks began to turn around at about 8:30am PST. And by the end of the trading session, they’d nearly clawed their way back to even. The Dow ended down 79 points and the SPX fell .15% for the day. Real estate, communications services, technology and consumer discretionary sectors ended in the green. The VIX Index—a common measure of fear among traders—spiked to 26 before tumbling back to 21. Gold, typically a safe-haven in tough times, initially rose but fell flat by the end of the day. And the 10-year Treasury yield, which dipped to 2.85% early in the session, ended at 2.90%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 6, 2018

December 6, 2018

Stocks sank at the open despite better than expected economic data. For the first couple of hours, most major market sectors were down more than 3% before bouncing off the lows. This could be the correction’s capitulation flush. While the Dow was down about 770 points, it is now down 436 pts. The SPX is currently down 1.7%. The more defensive sectors (consumer staples, utilities) also dumped at the open but are trying to claw their way back. Foreign markets aren’t serving as a safe haven. European markets closed down more than 3%. Asian markets were down roughly 2% overnight. The dollar is weaker, but that’s not helping commodities, most of which are trading lower. WTI crude oil fell back to $50.60/barrel, but quickly bounced back over $51. Bonds are catching a bid as you might expect. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is up .6%. High-grade corporate bonds, which have lagged lately, are up as well today. Junk bonds continue to struggle. The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields are down around 2.71% and 2.85%, respectively. The difference between those two yields, 14 basis points, is very small and that’s spooking equity markets. Looking back at the last two months, any volatility in rates has been greeted with fear. The market doesn’t like it when rates rise, and neither does it approve when rates fall. Both are somehow begin viewed as bad news.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 4, 2018

Stocks fell at the open, giving up yesterday’s post-G20 meeting rally. The Dow is currently down 587 pts and the SPX is down 2.3%. A number of sectors are down more than 2% in early trading: consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, tech, materials. Only utilities are catching a bid. This is clearly a risk-off trade. Foreign markets closed mostly lower last night and early this morning. The VIX Index is back up to 19., but it should be higher if traders were really frightened. Today’s selloff is mostly due to program trading (i.e. “the machines”). The dollar is flat and commodities are trading higher. WTI crude oil, which was crushed in October & November, is edging back up toward $53/barrel. Bonds are faring well today as yields tick lower. In fact, over the last few days, Treasury bond prices have skyrocketed. And remember, bond prices run inverse to yields. So the 10-year Treasury yield is all the way back down to 2.92% for the first time in 2 ½ months. And all of the sudden, investors are again concerned about the yield curve. The difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is down to just 10 basis points, or .10%. At the same time, junk bond prices continue to glide lower. The SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is now off 6.4% from its January peak. So we’re seeing a risk-off trade in the bond market today as well.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 3, 2018

December 3, 2018

Stocks surged at the open following a positive outcome at the G-20 meeting in Argentina over the weekend. The Dow is currently up 228 pts and the SPX is up .87%. Cyclical sectors (consumer discretionary, energy, industrials, tech, materials) are up over 1% in early trading. On the other hand, consumer staples and real estate sectors are in the red. European stock markets closed up about 1% and Asian markets were up 1-3% overnight. The dollar is weaker after the G-20 on reduced trade war tensions, and that’s giving some breathing room to commodities. WTI crude oil is up 3% to trade around $52.50/barrel. Despite the lower dollar, bonds are roughly flat on the day. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.83% and 2.99%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 29, 2018

November 29, 2018

The major stock market indices opened lower this morning following yesterday’s relief rally. At the moment, the Dow is down 62 points, and the SPX is down .2%. Energy, healthcare and materials are up about .5%, but most other sectors are falling back, led by the cyclicals (tech, financials, consumer discretionary). WTI crude oil is bouncing a bit; now trading up around $52/barrel. Gold is up slightly today, but most other commodities are trading lower. Treasury bonds are trading up as yields tick lower. But corporates are falling, perhaps due to the Federal Reserve’s financial stability report (see yesterday’s market update). Remember how spiking rates and the threat of inflation was the talk of the town in August and September? Well, since then inflation has moderated and rates have fallen. The five-year Treasury note yield is all the way back down to 2.83%, and the 10-year Treasury yield collapsed back to 3.02%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 28, 2018

November 28, 2018

Stocks opened higher again this morning (Dow +433 pts; SPX +1.46%), soothing the frayed nerves of panicky traders. All eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by tech (+2.2%) and consumer discretionary (+1.9%) sectors. The VIX Index is nearly unmoved at about 19. We’re seeing a relief rally, especially in riskier assets. The dollar fell on Fed comments (see below) and commodities are getting some relief. WTI crude oil bounced back to nearly $52/barrel. Bonds are up in price, down in yield, also responding to the Fed. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields ticked down to 2.86% and 3.04%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 26, 2018

November 26, 2018

The major stock market averages jumped at the open (Dow +300 pts; SPX +1.25%). In an 180-degree turn from last week’s action, the market’s tenor is clearly risk-on today. Utilities, real estate and consumer staples are in the red, whereas financials and consumer discretionary sectors are all up over 2%. The VIX Index fell back under 20. European stock markets are poised to close about 1% higher. And China is one of the only markets to have declined overnight. WTI crude oil is trading up 2.5% to $51.70/barrel. Bonds are mixed in today’s session. Treasury yields ticked up, causing modest price declines. But junk bonds are moving slightly higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 23, 2018

Stocks sank at the open in today’s holiday-shortened trading session. The Dow and SPX are currently down 140 pts and .4%, respectively. The energy sector is down 3.5% on falling oil prices. Energy is now the second-worst performing sector in 2018, behind communications services. On the other hand, transports, biotech & pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and retailers are trading higher today. The dollar is a bit stronger on the day (and up 5% so far this year), which is helping push commodity prices down. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 1.6% today. Bonds are trading slightly higher as yields tick downward. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are now trading at 2.87% and 3.05%, respectively. And while junk bonds did very well earlier in the year, the SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is down 4.5% since the stock market correction began in early October. All investors will be watching high-yield for signs of an economic slowdown.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.