10-year Treasury note

ANOTHER TRADE SETBACK?

Stocks gapped down at the open today (Dow -232 pts; SPX -.9%) after President Trump threatened new trade tariffs on Mexico. Ten of eleven major market sectors are down, led by communications services (-1.3%) and consumer staples (-1.1%). A number of key industry groups are down more than 1%, such as biotechs, retailers and transports. Not surprisingly, gold and gold mining stocks are up on the day. The VIX Index—a common measure of fear among traders—climbed back to 18.3. European markets closed down about 1% and Asia was mostly lower overnight. Interestingly, in the wake of higher trade tensions, China’s Shanghai Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index are down about the same in May, -5%. So we’re certainly not seeing any panic in global stock markets. Commodities are mostly lower in early trading. Gold is up about .9% but oil, copper and iron ire are falling in price. WTI crude oil is down 1.3% to trade at $55.35/barrel. Bonds are mostly higher—especially safe-haven Treasuries. After the Mexico tariff threat, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.17%, the lowest since September 2017.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

FADING THE TRADE DEAL

FADING THE TRADE DEAL

Stocks gapped up at the open, only to quickly fade. The Dow is currently down 236 points, and the SPX is down 1.1%. All eleven major market sectors are lower, led by healthcare (-1.8%) and tech (-1.4%). As some type of US-China trade deal looks more likely—see below—traders are selling the news. European markets closed mixed but Asian markets rallied overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is up over 20% so far this year. The US dollar is a bit stronger today, and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil rallied back to $56.50/barrel, pretty close to the 2019 high. In fact, most commodity prices are higher this year after suffering declines late last year. Recently, President Trump has said he believes oil prices are too high and the dollar is too strong. I’m not sure why the market is reacting to these remarks, but it does feed day-to-day volatility. Bonds are trading a bit higher as yields tick lower this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.73%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TRADE DEAL CAUTION

TRADE DEAL CAUTION

The major stock market averages opened lower this morning, but quickly pared losses. At the moment, the Dow is down 92 pts and the SPX is down .17%. Banks and biotechs are up .6% to 1.4% in early trading. In addition, energy exploration stocks are up after EOG Resources (EOG) reported quarterly results. Oil prices are up at 3-month highs following a lower than expected crude inventory report. WTI crude oil is back up over $57/barrel. Most other commodities are up as well; the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 6.5% so far this year. Is it possible that this index is predicting a rebound in global economic growth later this year? Bonds are falling in price, rising in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.68% this morning. Nothing to see here.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

WAITING ON MAR-A-LAGO

WAITING ON MAR-A-LAGO

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning following the Trump Administration’s announcement that it will further delay a scheduled trade tariff hike on Chinese imports. The Dow is currently up 157 pts and the SPX is up .45%. Cyclicals are leading the way—financials, industrials, tech, materials. And yet, the VIX Index is trading back up around 13.8. That’s not a high level, but one would typically expect the VIX to fall as the stock market rises. Commodities are mostly lower in early trading. WTI crude oil is down 3% today to trade around $55.30/barrel after President Trump complained to OPEC that oil prices are too high. I’m shaking my head in disbelief. If this isn’t proof that oil prices are routinely manipulated by traders and politicians, I don’t know what is. Bonds are trading mostly lower. The 10-year Treasury yield is back up around 2.68%. It has been trading between 2.65% and 2.70% for the last three weeks. As I mentioned last week, interest rate volatility has collapsed. By the way, Warrant Buffett says stocks are incredibly cheap if you think interest rates won’t skyrocket upward. If rates are relatively stable around current levels, stocks are attractive relative to bonds.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 24, 2018

The major stock market averages surged at the open following a spate of better than expected earnings announcements. The Dow is up 185 pts and the SPX is up .6%. Energy and materials—i.e. commodity-based sectors—are up over 1% in early trading. Only the defensive interest-rate sensitive sectors—utilities, consumer staples, real estate—are down. The VIX Index is sagging back down to 12.2 as investors’ fortunes look slightly more secure this morning. WTI crude oil is up sharply to trade around $68.80/barrel. Copper, gold and iron ore are all up as well. Bonds are mixed this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.82% and the 10-year yield is flat around 2.96%. Short-term bonds are flat but everything else is up a bit. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 9, 2017

Stocks opened higher again this morning (Dow +99 pts; SPX +.3%). Healthcare stocks are on the rebound after yesterday’s rout. In fact, the Nasdaq Biotech Index is up 1.6% at the moment. Banks are also rallying over 1%. Bond replacement stocks, such as utilities, telecoms and real estate are down. The dollar is stronger against a basket of foreign currencies and bonds are selling off. The 5-year Treasury yield shot up to 2.31%, which is a long-term resistance level going back to April 2011. The 10-year yield is also moving higher, to 2.53% (highest since last March). The next level of resistance is 2.63%. If Friday’s CPI inflation report comes in high, the 10-year could possibly hit that resistance level in short order.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 1, 2017

The major stock market averages opened down after the Dow hit 24,000 for the first time yesterday. At the moment, the Dow is down 133 pts and the SPX is down .6%. The energy sector shot up over .8% in early trading. Pharmaceutical stocks are also up over .6%. On the other hand, most everything else is in the red. Semiconductors are down 2% and transports are down 1%. VIX Index futures, which attempt to guess at market volatility over the next couple of months, are up around 11.7. That’s still very low. The dollar is a bit stronger today but commodities are up a lot. Bloomberg’s Commodity Index is up over 1% today. WTI crude oil, which has been in an up-trend since June, is now at $58.70/barrel. Apparently, OPEC decided to extend is self-imposed production cuts through the end of 2018. On one hand, OPEC is not to be trusted. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia really needs to boost oil prices in front of its IPO of Aramco next year. Bonds are modestly higher in price today. The 5-year Treasury yield is at 2.11% and the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 2.40%.   


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 9, 2017

Stocks opened little changed this morning (Dow & SPX flat). Utilities, semiconductors and gold miners are all up about half of a percent. On the other hand, retailers are down over 1% and banks are down about .5%. The VIX Index continues to hover around 10, suggesting continued low volatility in the near term. Commodities are mixed. Copper is trading higher on the day and is up nearly 20% so far this year. WTI crude oil is up slightly to trade around $49.40/barrel. US fixed income markets are closed for the Columbus Day holiday. But I’d point out that the 5-year Treasury yield, 1.96%, is now at a 6-month high. And on Friday, the 10-year yield ticked up to 2.36%, a three-month high. After Friday’s job market report, it seems all but certain that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 14, 2017

The major stock market averages opened higher despite a weak retail sales report. The Dow and SPX are currently up 9 pts & .2%, respectively. The Nasdaq is up .3%. The defensive sectors are catching a bid for a change (real estate, utilities, consumer staples). Financials is the only sector in the red after some less than stellar earnings reports. WTI crude is trading up around $46.45/barrel. Bonds are sharply higher in price, lower in yield after a soft inflation report. The 5- and 10-year Treasury note yields dipped to 1.86% & 2.32%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 22, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning, led by healthcare. The Dow is up 29 pts and the SPX is up .2%. The Nasdaq Biotech Index is surging 1.9% at the moment. Remember, biotechs severely under-performed the overall stock market last year and until a week ago the group was about even with the S&P 500 for 2017. So over the last few trading sessions we’ve seen significant fund flows into this area. On the other hand, both financials and energy are lagging today. The VIX Index is down around 10.4, and has been trading around this level for the past two months. Most commodities are lower today (and year-to-date). WTI crude oil is trading a bit higher this morning, around $42.80/barrel. Stocks will continue to be very sensitive to oil prices, which have fallen back to levels not seen since last August. Just about every Wall Street trader is trying to guess at the bottom for crude. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.76% and the 10-year Treasury is languishing around 2.15%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 23, 2017

Stocks opened higher yet again this morning (Dow +48 pts; SPX +.27%). In fact, the Dow is back to within 230 points of its all-time high. Ten of eleven major market sectors are higher in early trading, led by defensives like healthcare, consumer staples and utilities. Semiconductors, retailers and gold miners are lower on the day. The VIX Index is back down to 10.6 and VIX futures are up around 12.2. The dollar is unchanged on the day and commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is trading up toward $51.30/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.80% and the 10-year Treasury is at 2.25%. At these yields, it’s hard to argue for a lot of opportunity in fixed income investing.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 25, 2017

Stocks opened higher again this morning as traders digested earnings announcements. The Dow is currently up 230 pts and the SPX is up .57%. The Nasdaq rose over the 6,000 mark for the first time ever as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook continue to make new highs. In terms of major market sectors, materials and financials are leading the way, up 1% in early trading. The VIX Index sank back down under 11. European markets are poised to close slightly higher. Commodities are mostly higher but WTI crude oil is fading to around $49/barrel. There is clear support at $47/barrel. Bonds are falling in price for the second consecutive day. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up to 1.84% and the 10-year yield is at 2.31%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 11, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -110 pts; SPX -.6%). We’re right in that weird pre-earnings season period with only geopolitics to keep us busy. Financials and tech are down almost 1% in early trading. It looks like some of the stocks that have surged over the past few months are getting hit harder (MU, SWKS, AAPL, AMAT). I think the market will likely recoup some of the these losses by the end of the session. The VIX Index is up 11% to trade over 15.5; that’s a big jump in expected volatility. The VIX hasn’t been above 15 since the election. But remember, typically the VIX isn’t considered elevated unless it reaches 20. The dollar is down today (and about 1.5% year-to-date). Gold is higher on the day but most other commodities are lower. WTI crude is trading modestly lower to $52.80/barrel. Bonds are higher on the day (lower in yield). The 5-year Treasury is down around 1.84% and will likely fall to technical support at 1.80%. The 10-year Treasury is now yielding 2.31% and the next support level is 2.29%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 10, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning but quickly turned around. The Dow and SPX are currently flat. Energy is the leading sector, up .9% in early trading. Transports and retailers are also up .5% to 1%. The VIX Index has risen from 11.4 to 13 over the last two weeks. However, VIX May futures aren’t much higher than that, around 13.9. With North Korea back in the headlines, I expected more of a volatility spike. European markets are poised to close down slightly today, but are up 5-6% so far this year. The dollar is flat and oil is headed higher again. WTI crude oil is back to $52.90/barrel, partly due to the US airstrike last week, and partly because the Russian oil minister mentioned the possibility of extending OPEC-led production cuts. Bonds aren’t moving much this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.90% and the 10-year Treasury is trading at 2.36%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 7, 2017

Stocks opened flat this morning, which is a wonder given the payroll report and last night’s missile strike in Syria. Unlike yesterday, the defensive sectors of the stock market are leading (utilities, telecom, consumer staples). Among the cyclicals, only semiconductors and defense contractors are in the green. The VIX Index is trading up to 13.2. Not surprisingly, gold is up on the day and WTI crude oil is up to $51.90/barrel. Bonds are trading up in price, down in yield as you would expect given the events listed above. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are down to 1.86% and 2.33%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 3, 2017

Stocks are down in early trading (Dow -90 pts; SPX -.5%). Financials are leading to the downside, with banks off 1.2% in early trading. Semiconductors, transports and chemicals producers are also lower. The healthcare sector is flat, and that’s about as good as it gets. The VIX Index is back up over 13. WTI crude oil is down slightly to trade around $50.20/barrel. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are down around 1.87% and 2.34%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 29, 2017

Stocks opened mixed today (Dow -48 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq +.2%). We’re in no-man’s-land until earnings season starts in a couple of weeks. Energy stocks are bouncing back (+1%) after taking a beating so far this year. Retailers, gold miners and biotechs are up nicely, but most everything else is lower in early trading. The VIX Index is back down under 12 and VIX April futures are down to 12.8. The dollar is up a bit and yet most commodities are higher. WTI crude oil is up over $49/barrel. Remember, early this year oil prices corrected 12% and are just now beginning to move back up toward $50. Bonds are mostly higher in price, lower in yield. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are down to 1.94% and 2.39%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 17, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow -11 pts; SPX flat). Some key groups are lower in early trading, including banks, transports, biotechs, and retailers. On the other hand, utilities, energy, telecom and materials sectors are in the green. The VIX Index is up around 11.3 (considered very low). VIX April futures are trading at 13.2, and have been trending lower this month. Commodities are mostly higher on the day. Oil is flat around $48.76/barrel. Over the past month oil prices have fallen about 8%. Bonds are mostly higher in early trading. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields ticked down to 2.01% and 2.50%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 16, 2017

Stocks opened a bit lower this morning (Dow -45 pts; SPX -.29%) following yesterday’s rally. Just about everything—except tech, financials and some retailers—is lower in early trading. The market has been very resilient, however, and the Dow has now gone 106 days since experiencing a 1% daily move. Most commodities are higher on the day. But WTI crude is trading down to $48.65/barrel. Bonds are trading slightly lower as yields tick higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is currently 2.02% and the 10-year is trading at 2.52%. By the way, junk bonds are the real story in the bond market this month. After selling off during the last few weeks, they rebounded strongly yesterday in the wake of the Fed announcement (see below).


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 15, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +45 pts; SPX +.3%). The energy sector is rebounding (+1%) along with oil prices, as are transports and biotechs. But defensive sectors like utilities and real estate are also faring well. The VIX Index is sinking as stocks head higher; now hovering around 11.8. Traders often say 20 is the level that divides benign and fearful/volatile market conditions. The VIX hasn’t touched 20 for over a year. By the way, VIX April futures are trading around 13.7, which is still very tame. Commodities are mostly higher today (copper, gold, oil, ag products). WTI crude oil is back up to $48.50/barrel today. Bonds are up in price, down in yield. And since this is the day we’ll hear from the Federal Reserve regarding an expected interest rate hike, that should tell you the bond market has already priced it in. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are down slightly to 2.11% and 2.58%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.