5-year Treasury note

June 8, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow +32 pts; SPX flat). Banks, semiconductors and retailers are in the green, but the more interest rate sensitive sectors (utilities, real estate) are lower. The VIX Index is down around 10. The dollar is up about .4% today, partly because the Euro is weaker after the European Central Bank policy meeting. WTI crude oil is down modestly to trade around $45.70/barrel. Bonds are selling off a bit as yields head higher. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are up to 1.77% and 2.20%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 23, 2017

Stocks opened higher yet again this morning (Dow +48 pts; SPX +.27%). In fact, the Dow is back to within 230 points of its all-time high. Ten of eleven major market sectors are higher in early trading, led by defensives like healthcare, consumer staples and utilities. Semiconductors, retailers and gold miners are lower on the day. The VIX Index is back down to 10.6 and VIX futures are up around 12.2. The dollar is unchanged on the day and commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is trading up toward $51.30/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.80% and the 10-year Treasury is at 2.25%. At these yields, it’s hard to argue for a lot of opportunity in fixed income investing.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 25, 2017

Stocks opened higher again this morning as traders digested earnings announcements. The Dow is currently up 230 pts and the SPX is up .57%. The Nasdaq rose over the 6,000 mark for the first time ever as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook continue to make new highs. In terms of major market sectors, materials and financials are leading the way, up 1% in early trading. The VIX Index sank back down under 11. European markets are poised to close slightly higher. Commodities are mostly higher but WTI crude oil is fading to around $49/barrel. There is clear support at $47/barrel. Bonds are falling in price for the second consecutive day. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up to 1.84% and the 10-year yield is at 2.31%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 11, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -110 pts; SPX -.6%). We’re right in that weird pre-earnings season period with only geopolitics to keep us busy. Financials and tech are down almost 1% in early trading. It looks like some of the stocks that have surged over the past few months are getting hit harder (MU, SWKS, AAPL, AMAT). I think the market will likely recoup some of the these losses by the end of the session. The VIX Index is up 11% to trade over 15.5; that’s a big jump in expected volatility. The VIX hasn’t been above 15 since the election. But remember, typically the VIX isn’t considered elevated unless it reaches 20. The dollar is down today (and about 1.5% year-to-date). Gold is higher on the day but most other commodities are lower. WTI crude is trading modestly lower to $52.80/barrel. Bonds are higher on the day (lower in yield). The 5-year Treasury is down around 1.84% and will likely fall to technical support at 1.80%. The 10-year Treasury is now yielding 2.31% and the next support level is 2.29%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 10, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning but quickly turned around. The Dow and SPX are currently flat. Energy is the leading sector, up .9% in early trading. Transports and retailers are also up .5% to 1%. The VIX Index has risen from 11.4 to 13 over the last two weeks. However, VIX May futures aren’t much higher than that, around 13.9. With North Korea back in the headlines, I expected more of a volatility spike. European markets are poised to close down slightly today, but are up 5-6% so far this year. The dollar is flat and oil is headed higher again. WTI crude oil is back to $52.90/barrel, partly due to the US airstrike last week, and partly because the Russian oil minister mentioned the possibility of extending OPEC-led production cuts. Bonds aren’t moving much this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.90% and the 10-year Treasury is trading at 2.36%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 7, 2017

Stocks opened flat this morning, which is a wonder given the payroll report and last night’s missile strike in Syria. Unlike yesterday, the defensive sectors of the stock market are leading (utilities, telecom, consumer staples). Among the cyclicals, only semiconductors and defense contractors are in the green. The VIX Index is trading up to 13.2. Not surprisingly, gold is up on the day and WTI crude oil is up to $51.90/barrel. Bonds are trading up in price, down in yield as you would expect given the events listed above. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are down to 1.86% and 2.33%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 3, 2017

Stocks are down in early trading (Dow -90 pts; SPX -.5%). Financials are leading to the downside, with banks off 1.2% in early trading. Semiconductors, transports and chemicals producers are also lower. The healthcare sector is flat, and that’s about as good as it gets. The VIX Index is back up over 13. WTI crude oil is down slightly to trade around $50.20/barrel. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are down around 1.87% and 2.34%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 24, 2017

Stocks opened higher but just gave way ( Dow -22 pts; SPX flat). Semiconductors are bouncing back (+1%). Biotechs and utilities are trading higher as well. But it’s been a tough week for stocks, with the SPX down about 1% and small-caps down 2%. The VIX Index is trading down around 12.4—still very low. The dollar is flat today (around 15-month lows) and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is up modestly to trade around $47.80/barrel. Bonds are trading higher as well as yields tick lower. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are currently trading at 1.94% and 2.40%, respectively. Lower yields in the past couple of weeks suggest pessimism about President Trump’s approach to repealing and replacing ObamaCare. The vote on the GOP health bill will take place today, and Bloomberg just forecast that it WILL PASS. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 15, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +45 pts; SPX +.3%). The energy sector is rebounding (+1%) along with oil prices, as are transports and biotechs. But defensive sectors like utilities and real estate are also faring well. The VIX Index is sinking as stocks head higher; now hovering around 11.8. Traders often say 20 is the level that divides benign and fearful/volatile market conditions. The VIX hasn’t touched 20 for over a year. By the way, VIX April futures are trading around 13.7, which is still very tame. Commodities are mostly higher today (copper, gold, oil, ag products). WTI crude oil is back up to $48.50/barrel today. Bonds are up in price, down in yield. And since this is the day we’ll hear from the Federal Reserve regarding an expected interest rate hike, that should tell you the bond market has already priced it in. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are down slightly to 2.11% and 2.58%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 10, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning, but quickly faded. The Dow is up 36 pts and the SPX is up .27%. Semiconductors (+1%) and gold miners (+.5) are up the most in early trading. Banks, biotechs and retailers are essentially flat, and energy stocks continue to slide. The VIX Index continues to languish under 12. The dollar is lower today and commodities are mixed. Gold is flat, copper is up .5% and WTI crude oil is down a bit to trade under $49/barrel. Bonds sold off immediately in response to the jobs report (see below), but since then have turned around. The 5-year Treasury yield is actually down a basis point to 2.11%. Ditto for the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.59%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 8, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning despite a better than expected jobs report. The Dow is down 20 points, the SPX is flat and the Nasdaq is up .2%. The job report pushed bonds and interest rate sensitive sectors lower. So utilities, telecoms, REITs and consumer staples are down in early trading. The cyclical sectors, on the other hand, are up (materials, financials, tech, consumer discretion). The same report also pushed the VIX Index lower, now trading around 11. Remember, traders are anxiously watching the VIX for signs of a stock market correction. Not to belabor the point, but the prospect of better economic data—and thus higher interest rates—is also strengthening the dollar and weighing on commodity prices. WTI crude oil is down 1.6% to $52.20/barrel. Bonds, as I said, are lower in price, higher in yield today. Don’t miss this: the 5-year Treasury yield spiked to 2.10%, which is the highest level since the spring of 2011. The 10-year Treasury yield is up to 2.57%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 2, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -52 pts; SPX -.47%). Just about every sector group is in the red after yesterday’s monster rally.  Only utilities are in the green (+.4%). And by the way, in terms of price momentum, some of the cyclical sectors (financials, energy, industrials) have been weaker over the last month, whereas the defensives (consumer staples, utilities) have been stronger. But that trend may not be durable if interest rates continue to rise. Today, the dollar is a bit stronger and commodities are lower. WTI crude is down 1.6% to $52.95/barrel. Copper, gold and iron ore are all lower. Bonds are selling off as yields head higher. The 5-year Treasury yield spiked to 2.02% and the 10-year yield jumped to 2.48%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 1, 2017

he Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 have just hit all-time highs. The Dow is up 245 points and just broke through 21,000. Cyclical sectors (unlike the last few trading sessions) are leading the way. Consumer discretionary, energy, financials, tech, materials and industrials sectors are all up over 1% in early trading. The VIX Index dived back under 12 after yesterday’s mini-spike to 13. There is virtually no fear in the market. The dollar is stronger today but commodities are also rising. WTI crude oil is flat just under $54/barrel. Bonds are finally reflecting a high chance that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this month. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are up to 1.99% and 2.46%, respectively. The 2-year Treasury yield—a better indication of expectations for the Fed—shot up to 1.29% and that’s the highest yield since the summer of 2009. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 28, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning, just like the last two trading sessions. The Dow is flat, the SPX is down .14% and the Nasdaq is down .3%. Once again, the defensive sectors (utilities, consumer staples) are faring better than the cyclicals. The VIX Index is trading up around 12.2 and VIX March futures are trading up to 13.3. So the fear gauge is picking up just a tiny bit. The dollar is weaker today and has really sold off since mid-December. That’s helping commodities tread water or even rise a little. WTI crude oil is down this morning to $53.40/barrel. Remember, a year ago oil was under $30/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.85% and 2.35%, respectively. And I would argue the bond market isn’t yet signaling that a March Fed interest rate hike is imminent. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 27, 2017

Stocks opened modestly lower this morning. The Dow and SPX are currently down 9 pts & flat, respectively. Unlike on Friday, the defensive sectors (telecoms, utilities, consumer staples) are lower today. On the other hand, biotechs, gold miners and energy stocks are higher. The VIX Index is hovering around 11.7, near the low end of its 1-year range. So investor nervousness is low. Commodities are mixed but WTI crude oil is up around $54.25/barrel. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are mostly unchanged, trading at 1.83% and 2.33%. respectively. The 10-year has been stabilized in the range of 2.3% to 2.5% over the last two months. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 6, 2017

The major market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow +13 pts; SPX -.1%). Most sectors are seeing modest declines led by energy (-.5%) and real estate (-.5%). Industrials and Tech are slightly higher. The VIX Index is up about 3% to trade around 11.3, which is still considered very low. In fact, the VIX sank to a 2 ½ year low last week. And again, traders are watching the fear gauge closely for signs that the Trump Rally is fading. The dollar is stronger on the day but commodities are mixed (gold, copper higher; oil lower). WTI crude oil surged to nearly $54/barrel last week but is trading back down to $53.30 today. We understand OPEC states seem to be abiding by the cartel’s stated production limits. Bonds are rising in price (down in yield) this morning. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are now at 1.87% and 2.45%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 1, 2017

The major market averages gapped up at the open but quickly turned around. The Dow is up 22 pts and the SPX is flat. Banks and semiconductors are leading the way, each up nearly 1%. Utilities, on the other hand, are giving back yesterday’s gains. The VIX Index is collapsing back down under 12 and that’s giving the market room to rise. Remember, the moment the VIX begins to rise toward 14-16 short-term traders will be selling. The dollar is up today (maybe due to better than expected economic data) and yet commodities are higher as well. WTI crude oil is trading up over $53/barrel. Bonds are selling off, reversing yesterday’s gains. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up to 1.97% and 2.50%. In some respects, capital markets have been without trend over the last month. A Trump Rally built on hope must now give way to other more concrete factors like earnings season and economic data. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 11, 2017

Stocks surged at the open (Dow +97 pts; SPX +.13%). Yesterday, the Nasdaq hit a fresh all-time high. Energy and industrials sectors are leading this morning as oil prices bounces back. Biotechs, gold miners, telecom carriers and REITs aren’t participating. The dollar is stronger on the day, but oil prices are up 2% to $52/barrel anyway. Bonds are pretty much unchanged. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.89% and 2.39%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 6, 2017

Stocks opened lower but quickly turned around. At the moment, the Dow and SPX are up 30 pts and .16%, respectively. And by the way, the Nasdaq just hit a fresh all-time high. Telecoms are down 2.2% in early trading; that’s just give-back after they rallied 8% in December. Gold miners are down about 2.8% today, proving that gold is volatile. The energy sector is a bit lower even as crude oil holds steady at about $53.80/barrel. The VIX Index continues to trend lower and is now trading at 11.3. Typically, when the VIX is falling the stock market is rising. Bonds reversed course this morning and yields are up. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 1.91% and 2.141%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 5, 2016

The major stock market averages opened lower this morning (Dow -72 pts; SPX -.3%). Consumer staples is the only sector hanging onto to a small gain. The banks are off by 1% in early trading. However, quite a few individual stocks are up on the day: Amazon, Aetna, Alphabet, Facebook and Honeywell, for example. The VIX Index—a measure of fear among traders—continues to dive and is now trading under 12. That’s considered very low. The dollar is weaker for the second consecutive session after reached a 14-year high at the end of 2016. Some give-back is normal, but we also understand China is moving to strengthen its currency. Anyway, that’s helping commodities rally. Gold, copper and oil are higher on the day. WTI crude is trading up to $53.80/barrel, hovering around a 1 ½ year high. Bonds are rallying as yields tick lower. The 5-year Treasury yield shot up to 2.09% by mid-December but have since fallen back to 1.88%. The chart pattern for the 10-year Treasury is the same; the current yield is 2.39%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.