5-year Treasury yield

STOCKS & BONDS RISING TOGETHER

STOCKS & BONDS RISING TOGETHER

Stocks opened slightly higher this morning (Dow +21 pts; SPX +.2%). Consumer goods sectors are up about .7% after Wal-Mart (WMT) reported strong fourth quarter results. Other than that, cyclical sectors are faring worse than the defensives. Traders are pondering—now that the SPX has risen back above its 200-day moving average—whether the recovery rally can continue, or some consolidation is needed after a really strong run. WTI crude oil is up a little to trade around $55.80/barrel. Copper is up nearly 2% today and nearly 10% so far this year. Bonds are trading modestly higher as interest rates tick lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 2.46% and 2.64%, respectively. The Treasury bond market and stock market essentially don’t agree right now. Stocks are telling you the economic outlook is a little less positive but things are OK. The bond market seems to be less optimistic. But remember, Treasuries are reflecting a more dovish Federal Reserve, and also ultra-low or negative sovereign rates overseas. So lower Treasury yields aren’t necessarily warning of a coming recession. As evidence, look to the junk bond market, which is up over 5% so far this year. If the bond market really believed recession was coming within the next year, you’d see much higher junk yields.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

GOVERNMENT FUNDING DEAL?

The major US stock market averages gapped up at the open on a potential cross-party deal to forestall another government shutdown. The Dow is currently up 310 points and the SPX is up 1.2%. Ten of eleven sectors are in the green, led by financials & materials (+1.8%) as well as industrials & consumer discretionary (+1.5%). European markets closed about 1% higher and Asia was up overnight. Hard to believe, but so far in 2019 The Dow is up nearly 9%, the Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up 6%, the Nikkei is up 4% and the Shanghai Composite index is up 7%. To maintain those gains, we’re going to need to see better economic data around the world. The dollar is a little weaker today and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is up 1.5% to trade around $53.20/barrel after a report that Saudi Arabia has cut back oil production. Treasury bonds are down in price, up in yield today. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up to 2.49% and the 10-year yield is up to 2.69%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

IGNORE WASHINGTON, WATCH EARNINGS

IGNORE WASHINGTON, WATCH EARNINGS

Stocks opened modestly lower this morning (Dow flat; SPX -.25%; Nasdaq -.4%). Exchange trade volume is low. The communications services sector is down 1.5%; REITs are down .75%; energy is off .3% and banks are down .2%. Semiconductors are bucking the trend, however (see below). As I mentioned yesterday, The VIX Index has collapsed back to 15; traders are no longer as fearful, but they’re wondering how far this V-shaped recovery can go before the market needs to step back and consolidate. After all, the SPX has now retraced nearly ¾ of its late 2018 correction. Commodities are trading mostly higher—with the notable exception of gold. WTI crude oil is back up around $54.10/barrel and it looks like the path of least resistance is up. Copper is now up 9% on the year, which is odd since China’s economy is said to be losing steam. Further, iron ore is up around a 2-year high and Barzil’s Vale SA (VALE) just warned of a global shortage. That doesn’t square with the consensus narrative that global economic growth is falling. So either global growth is better than we’ve been hearing, or China is pushing fiscal stimulus in a big way this year. Usually those two move together. Bonds are roughly unchanged this morning. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.50% and 2.69%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 28, 2019

Stocks sank at the open this morning after Nvidia (NVDA) and Caterpillar (CAT) reported quarterly results. The Dow is currently down 340 points and the SPX is down 1%. A number of major market sectors are down more than 1%: tech, communications, industrials, healthcare, and energy. The VIX Index rose back to nearly 20, which shouldn’t cause much panic among traders. After all, we’ve had five consecutive weeks of gains for the stock market, and a pause (or some give-back) should be expected. Commodities are mostly lower today; WTI crude oil is back down around $51.60/barrel. Copper is up about 4% so far this year, which suggests some nascent optimism regarding China’s ability to stabilize their economy with fiscal stimulus. Bonds are trading slightly higher today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields dipped to 2.57% and 2.73%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

RECOVERY CONTINUES IN FITS & STARTS

RECOVERY CONTINUES IN FITS & STARTS

RECOVERY CONTINUES IN FITS & STARTS

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -45 pts; SPX -.1%). Most major market sectors are in the red, led by energy and utilities. Semiconductors and banks, on the other hand, are trading higher. Over the last several days, the VIX Index has collapsed—that is, expected near-term volatility has collapsed. European markets closed .5% lower today after we learned that Italy’s economy contracted in the third quarter and industrial production plunged in November. On the other hand, most of Asia was positive overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite has been cautiously advancing since January 3rd—could that signal some optimism over trade? Commodities are trading mixed today. WTI crude is down 2% to $51.60/barrel, hence the dip in energy stocks. But make no mistake, oil’s new trend is up. Bonds are mostly higher today, except junk which is following the stock market pretty closely these days. Interest rates are down across the curve today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 2.52% and 2.70%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 8, 2019

January 8, 2019

Stocks opened higher yet again today (Dow +165 pts; SPX +.45%). The financial sector is down nearly .6% and the tech sector is pretty flat. But every other sector is in the green, led by communications and energy. WTI crude oil extended its recovery from the late 2018 crash and is now trading up around $49.50/barrel. Most of the bond market is trading higher as well, meaning that interest rates are lower. Junk bonds are up over .3% in early trading (see below). High-grade corporate bonds are up about .2%. Treasury bonds are modestly lower on the day, which is what you would expect. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up around 2.55% and 2.71%. I expect they’ll head higher from here.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 3, 2019

January 3, 2019

Stocks opened sharply lower after a profit warning from Apple Inc. (see below). The Dow is currently down 519 pts and the SPX is down 1.5%. Eight of eleven major market sectors are lower, led by tech (-3.6%) and industrials (-2%). The defensive sectors are in the green (real estate, utilities, consumer staples). European markets closed down about 1% and nearly all of Asia was down overnight. Commodities are mixed in early trading. WTI crude oil fell back slightly to trade around $46.30/barrel. Gold is up by .5%. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Corporates (both investment grade and junk) are lower, but Treasuries are moving higher. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are down around 2.40% and 2.58%, respectively. Those are both around 1-year lows. The bond market is telling you there is no need for the Fed to raise rates during the first half of 2019.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 31, 2018

December 31, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning but quickly lost steam. The Dow is currently up 150 pts and the SPX is up .33%. Healthcare is the best performing group in early trading, up about 1%. Retailers and tech stocks are also in the green. On the other hand, utilities & real estate sectors are in the red. The VIX Index fell to 27 this morning; the fear index spiked to 36 on Christmas Eve. Foreign markets were mostly higher in today’s session. Even China’s Shanghai Composite Index picked itself up off the floor. It climbed .4% overnight but is still down something like 28% for the year. It’s no secret that the emerging trade war has dented China’s economic momentum. Commodities are mixed today: copper -1.8%; oil flat; gold flat; iron ore +.2%. But the overall trend has been lower; during 2018 the Bloomberg Commodity Index fell nearly 13%. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.54% and 2.70%, respectively. Bond traders are saying the 2.70% mark is a key psychological support level and if the 10-year falls below that it will likely continue falling toward 2.6%. By the way, for all the massive volatility in the bond market this year, the 10-year yield will have gained a mere 27 basis points (.27%) during 2018.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 26, 2018

The major stock market averages are attempting to recover from the worst Christmas Eve trading session since the Great Depression. At the moment, the Dow is up 400 pts and the SPX is up 2%. The consumer discretionary sector is up 3.4%, the energy sector is up 3%, healthcare & tech are up over 2%. Utilities are now losing steam after recently hitting all-time highs. The VIX Index, which spiked to 36 on Monday, is back down around 34.7. These levels, indicating heightened fear among traders, were last seen during the February stock market correction. Traders, by the way, tend to invest cash after spikes in the VIX. Most commodities are trading higher today. WTI crude oil is back up to $45.30/barrel. Gold is up .7 % at the moment, but is still down year-to-date. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Junk bonds are rallying today, but are still down around 10% year-to-date. Treasury bonds are selling off after a massive 6-week rally. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.58% and 2.75%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 18, 2018

December 18, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow 243 pts; SPX .5%) in an attempt to recover from yesterday’s rout. A number of market sectors are up about 1%: industrials, real estate, materials, communications services and consumer discretionary. Energy stocks are down following oil prices. WTI crude oil fell to a 15-month low after a report that global oil production is rising. European stock markets closed down about .7% and Asian markets were down overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is down 22% so far this year in local currency terms (or about 26% in dollar terms). Commodities are mixed in early trading. As mentioned, WTI crude oil is down around $47/barrel (down 36% since early October. Consensus Wall Street opinion is that global oil demand is just fine, but supply is temporarily too high. As I’ve mentioned before, there is a lot of room for traders and governments to manipulate oil prices. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Treasury bonds are rising but junk bonds are falling in price. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are back down to 2.67% and 2.83%. Remember last summer when traders were freaking out over rising interest rates? They feared higher mortgage & auto loan rates and worried incessantly that the Federal Reserve would have to keep hiking rates to keep pace. Well, those concerns seem in the distant past now. We’re all wondering what the bond market’s massive volatility is trying to tell us.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 17, 2018

December 17, 2018

The major stock market averages fell at the open but quickly pared losses. At the moment, the Dow and SPX are down 104 pts and .5%, respectively. Utilities and real estate sectors are down over 1% in early trading, whereas the financial sector is finally catching a bid. Semiconductors are up 1% as well. The VIX Index is up around 22.5 and VIX January futures are up around 21. That tells us traders are still nervous and expect continued volatility. The dollar is a bit weaker today, but commodities aren’t uniformly higher. WTI crude oil fell back to $50/barrel. Copper is down again—now -20% on the year. That ought to tell you China’s economy is slowing. Bonds are catching a bid as interest rates tick lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 2.71% and 2.86%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 13, 2018

December 13, 2018

Stocks opened modestly higher again today, but soon faded. The Dow is now up 10 pts on the day and the SPX is down .28%. Transports, retailers and banks are down. REITs and utilities are trading higher along with bonds. Commodities are broadly higher, trying to recover from a rough year. WTI crude is trading over $52/barrel. Year-to-date, copper is still down 19%, gold is down 5%, and oil is down about 10%. The iShares Global Agriculture Producers ETF (VEGI) is down nearly 7%. Despite strong economic growth and corporate earnings, cyclical risk-on sectors like energy, materials and industrials have not fared well in 2018.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 12, 2018

December 12, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +350 pts; SPX +1.57%). A number of sectors are up more than 1.5% in early trading: tech, communications services, energy, healthcare, industrials and consumer discretionary. Semiconductor stocks are rallying sharply for the second consecutive session. The SOX Index is trying to recover from a pretty deep 21% correction this year. The VIX Index is down around 20.6 and VIX January futures are trading down around 20, suggesting traders are less fearful than they were a week ago. The dollar is weaker on a benign inflation report (see below). That—along with OPEC’s decision to cut output—is helping oil prices recover. WTI crude is back up around $52.30/barrel. Bonds are mixed in early trading. For the second straight session, junk bonds are rallying; trying to recover from a 7% correction this year. Remember, junk bonds are seen as leading indicator of economic growth. In addition, we’re seeing Treasury bonds sell off for the third consecutive session. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up around 2.76% and 2.90%. For what it’s worth, the bond market seems to suggest that the worst of the stock market correction is past.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 11, 2018

December 11, 2018

Stocks rose at the open after a report suggesting progress in negotiating some sort of de-escalation of the trade war. The Dow is currently up 37 pts and the SPX is up .45%. The best performing groups in early trading are semiconductors, biotechs and retailers. The European markets closed up about 1.6% and most of Asia was up overnight. The dollar is stronger yet again, but WTI crude oil is up around $51.60/barrel. Bonds are trading modestly higher again. For the first time in a while we’re seeing a little rally in junk bonds. In Treasuries, we’re seeing short and long yields continue to converge. That is, you’re not picking up much additional yield for investing in longer-dated notes. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are sitting at 2.71% and 2.85%, respectively. So yield curve concerns are front and center.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 3, 2018

December 3, 2018

Stocks surged at the open following a positive outcome at the G-20 meeting in Argentina over the weekend. The Dow is currently up 228 pts and the SPX is up .87%. Cyclical sectors (consumer discretionary, energy, industrials, tech, materials) are up over 1% in early trading. On the other hand, consumer staples and real estate sectors are in the red. European stock markets closed up about 1% and Asian markets were up 1-3% overnight. The dollar is weaker after the G-20 on reduced trade war tensions, and that’s giving some breathing room to commodities. WTI crude oil is up 3% to trade around $52.50/barrel. Despite the lower dollar, bonds are roughly flat on the day. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.83% and 2.99%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 29, 2018

November 29, 2018

The major stock market indices opened lower this morning following yesterday’s relief rally. At the moment, the Dow is down 62 points, and the SPX is down .2%. Energy, healthcare and materials are up about .5%, but most other sectors are falling back, led by the cyclicals (tech, financials, consumer discretionary). WTI crude oil is bouncing a bit; now trading up around $52/barrel. Gold is up slightly today, but most other commodities are trading lower. Treasury bonds are trading up as yields tick lower. But corporates are falling, perhaps due to the Federal Reserve’s financial stability report (see yesterday’s market update). Remember how spiking rates and the threat of inflation was the talk of the town in August and September? Well, since then inflation has moderated and rates have fallen. The five-year Treasury note yield is all the way back down to 2.83%, and the 10-year Treasury yield collapsed back to 3.02%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 28, 2018

November 28, 2018

Stocks opened higher again this morning (Dow +433 pts; SPX +1.46%), soothing the frayed nerves of panicky traders. All eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by tech (+2.2%) and consumer discretionary (+1.9%) sectors. The VIX Index is nearly unmoved at about 19. We’re seeing a relief rally, especially in riskier assets. The dollar fell on Fed comments (see below) and commodities are getting some relief. WTI crude oil bounced back to nearly $52/barrel. Bonds are up in price, down in yield, also responding to the Fed. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields ticked down to 2.86% and 3.04%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 23, 2018

Stocks sank at the open in today’s holiday-shortened trading session. The Dow and SPX are currently down 140 pts and .4%, respectively. The energy sector is down 3.5% on falling oil prices. Energy is now the second-worst performing sector in 2018, behind communications services. On the other hand, transports, biotech & pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and retailers are trading higher today. The dollar is a bit stronger on the day (and up 5% so far this year), which is helping push commodity prices down. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 1.6% today. Bonds are trading slightly higher as yields tick downward. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are now trading at 2.87% and 3.05%, respectively. And while junk bonds did very well earlier in the year, the SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is down 4.5% since the stock market correction began in early October. All investors will be watching high-yield for signs of an economic slowdown.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 21, 2018

November 21, 2018

Stocks jumped up at the open this morning (Dow pts; SPX %). The SPX is now retesting its 10/29 correction low. I’d much rather see the index fall at the open and then climb into the close. At the moment, energy stocks are up over 2% on higher oil prices. Consumer discretionary, materials, communications, tech, financials, and industrials are all up over 1%. Only utilities and healthcare sectors are in the red. European markets experienced their own relief rally, with most indexes closing up over 1%. WTI crude oil spiked nearly 4% this morning, proving that day-to-day moves in this commodity represent market manipulation by traders more than they represent changes in supply and demand. By the way, oil fell 30% from 10/3 through 11/20. Bonds are trading lower today as yields rise. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up around 2.91% and the 10-year yield is back up to 3.08%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 20, 2018

November 20, 2018

Stocks gapped down quickly at the open, then began to pare losses. The Dow is currently down 385 pts and the SPX is down 1.1%. Industrial, energy and financial sectors are down about 2% in early trading. But all eleven sectors are losing ground. The major stock market indexes are clearly in the process of testing their October 29th lows, and are shaking out the weak hands. European markets fell more than 1% in today’s session and Asian markets were down overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is now down 25% year-to-date in local currency terms. Gold is slightly higher today, although still down 6% year-to-date. WTI crude oil plunged 5% to trade at $54.40/barrel, the lowest since early November 2017. Oil was trading in the mid $70s just six weeks ago. Remember, President Trump tricked the Russians and Saudis into raising oil production levels when he threatened to impose and oil embargo on Iran. He subsequently declined to follow through on that threat and now the world is temporarily oversupplied. Bonds are trading slightly lower today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 2.87% and 3.06%, respectively.


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