Amazon (AMZN)

THE UPWARD MARCH CONTINUES

The major stock market indexes opened higher this morning ( Dow +151 pts; SPX +.5%). Consumer discretionary is the leading sector (+1.2%) on strength in its major constituents Amazon (AMZN) & Home Depot (HD). Semiconductor stocks are also up about 1.3%. Most other sectors are participating, save utilities and real estate. Those two groups recently achieved all-time highs and so some give-back is to be expected. WTI crude oil is down a bit to trade around $58.90/barrel after yesterday’s sharp rally. OPEC decided to continue established production cuts through June. Cuts by OPEC late last year are helping to balance global demand and supply even though US producers are steadily ramping production levels. Bonds are trading lower today as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield edged back up to 2.61%. We should perhaps expect some rate volatility around the Fed announcement tomorrow.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

DON'T BE MISLEAD BY NEWS HEADLINES ON THE ECONOMY

The major stock market averages opened lower today on the some disappointing retail sales data (see below). The Dow is down 107 points and the SPX is down .2%. The consumer staples sector is down over 1% after a weak earnings report from Coca Cola (KO). Financials are down over 1%, and industrials are down .6%. This could be the consolidation we’ve been expecting after a sharp rally in January. Commodities are mixed in early trading. WTI crude oil is unchanged around $54/barrel. Bonds are modestly higher in price, lower in yield. Longer-term Treasury notes—as measured by iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)—are up about .5% today. TLT is flat on the year, whereas corporate bond ETFs are mostly higher so far in 2019. As you might expect on a day when stock prices are falling, junk bonds are also weak.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

EARNINGS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS TO THE RESCUE

Stocks opened higher today after Apple’s (AAPL) earnings announcement (see below). The Dow is currently up 369 pts and the SPX is up 1%. Tech, industrials and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the way, up over 1% in early trading. In particular, AAPL is up 4.7% and Amazon (AMZN) is up 3.4%. The VIX Index—a common fear gauge among traders—is still hovering around 19 where it has been for the past couple of weeks. With every passing day it seems more likely that Christmas Eve was the correction bottom. Commodities are trading mostly higher today. WTI crude oil is back up around $54.70/barrel and you can expect it to keep going in the near term. Bonds are mixed; Treasuries are down but junk bonds are higher on the day. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.73% and has been pretty tight to that level over the last two weeks. The yield curve is still flattish but hasn’t inverted yet. By the way, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference today discussing the FOMC’s monthly policy meeting.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 23, 2018

Stocks sank at the open in today’s holiday-shortened trading session. The Dow and SPX are currently down 140 pts and .4%, respectively. The energy sector is down 3.5% on falling oil prices. Energy is now the second-worst performing sector in 2018, behind communications services. On the other hand, transports, biotech & pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and retailers are trading higher today. The dollar is a bit stronger on the day (and up 5% so far this year), which is helping push commodity prices down. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 1.6% today. Bonds are trading slightly higher as yields tick downward. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are now trading at 2.87% and 3.05%, respectively. And while junk bonds did very well earlier in the year, the SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is down 4.5% since the stock market correction began in early October. All investors will be watching high-yield for signs of an economic slowdown.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 19, 2018

November 19, 2018

Stocks sank at the open this morning (Dow -385 pts; SPX -1.47%). The tech sector is down over 3% and a host of other sectors are down more than 1% (consumer discretionary, healthcare, industrials, communications). Only the utilities sectors is managing a small gain. The VIX Index is headed back up toward 20. But remember, it recently spiked to around 25. European markets closed down about .8% whereas most of Asia was up overnight. The dollar is down a bit today so the Bloomberg Commodity Index is rising modestly. WTI crude oil is up modestly to trade at $56.50/barrel. Bonds are not surprisingly catching a bid. That’s been the case since 11/8. In fact, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is up 2% since then. The 10-year Treasury Note yield, now at 3.07%, has fallen from 3.24% in less than 2 weeks.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 5, 2018

November 5, 2018

The major stock market averages are higher this morning in front of the mid-term elections. The Dow is currently up 158 pts and the SPX is up .3%. Several sectors are up more than 1%: real estate, utilities, financials, consumer staples and energy. On the other hand, communications services, tech and consumer discretionary sectors are all down .6% to 1%. The FAANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix & Google) are selling off and boring value stocks are catching a bid. The VIX Index is back up around 20, but VIX December futures are trading down around 19. So traders are perhaps expecting a little more volatility around the election. The US dollar is modestly weaker today and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up .4%. WTI crude is bouncing up toward $64/barrel after a massive month-long slide. Bonds are trading slightly higher today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 3.02% and 3.19%, respectively. We’re not hearing much chatter about the yield curve lately. That’s because the curve is steepening at the same time rates are rising. This is seen as a normal reaction to strong economic growth. The CEO of Federal Realty (FRT) says interest rates are only rising because the economy is doing well. “I gotta tell you, things look pretty good.”


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 31, 2018

August 31, 2018

The major stock market indexes are mixed in early trading (Dow -55 pts; SPX -.13%; Nasdaq +.1%). Retailers, semiconductors and REITs are moving up, but most other groups are in the red. Banks and oil companies are some of the worst-performing groups, and year-to-date they’ve been flattish. Trade volume is pretty light in front of the three-day weekend. European stock markets are down about 1% and Asian markets were down overnight. Over the last 24 hours we’ve seen headlines saying President Trump is leaning toward imposing trade tariffs on another $200bil in Chinese imports, and he’s also doing his part to cast doubt on the trade talks between US and Canadian officials this week. Today is the deadline for negotiating a new NAFTA deal with Canada. That country’s foreign affairs minister said the two sides are “not there yet.” That haze of political uncertainty will keep a lid on stock market gains for now.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 20, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +77 pts; SPX +.24%). Most sectors and industry groups are in green, led by energy, materials and industrials. However, semiconductors, gold miners and biotechs are not participating. The VIX Index is down slightly to trade around 12.5. Remember, the VIX is coming off of a mini spike to nearly 15 a week ago. European stock markets are broadly positive today, in the neighborhood of +.8% and most of Asia traded higher overnight. The dollar is flat against a basket of foreign currencies today but has spiked this month. WTI crude oil is up slightly to trade around $66.20/barrel. Copper is sitting near a 13-month low, mostly in sympathy with China’s trade war-induced stock market correction. Save oil, commodities generally haven’t done well this year (Gold -9%, silver -14%, iShares Global Agricultural Producers ETF -2%; iron ore flat). Bonds are up in price, down in yield this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield backed down to 2.70% and the 10-year yield fell to 2.83%. It does appear that yields are range-bound for the near term. In fact, over the last seven months the 10-year has been mostly confined to the range of 2.80% to 3.00%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 11, 2018

Stocks sank at the open this morning as the Trump Administration proposed an additional 10% tariff on $200bil of imported Chinese goods. The Dow is currently down 157 pts and the SPX is down .6%. Semiconductors are down more than 2% in early trading. The worst performing sectors are energy, materials and industrials—all down over 1%. Only utilities are in the green. European stock markets are poised to close down over 1% and Asia was down over 1% last night. Most commodities are also trading lower. WTI crude oil is back down to $72.60/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are currently at 2.75% and 2.85%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 28, 2018

Stocks meandered aimlessly at the open (Dow flat; SPX +.15%). Telecoms are up 1.5% today after taking an 12% beating year-to-date. Tech and financials are also up about .5%. On the other hand, energy, healthcare, industrials and materials are down modestly. The VIX Index is heading back up over 18, but VIX July futures are trading down around 17. So the options market is telling us volatility will calm over the next 30 days. European stock markets will close down about 1%, reversing yesterday’s gains. Asia was mixed overnight, but China’s Shanghai Composite Index is now down 21.7% from its January high. Commodities are mixed, with oil up over 1% but gold and copper are sagging. WTI crude oil is trading over $73.70/barrel and is up 9% so far this month. Bonds are trading slightly lower as rates tick up. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are at 2.72% and 2.84%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 27, 2018

Stocks gapped up at the open but quickly faded. The Dow is currently flat and the SPX is up .2%. Traders are pumping up the defensive sectors—utilities, consumer staples, real estate, telecom—because interest rates are falling back. Oil is trading flat around $68/barrel but energy stocks are down about 1% in early trading. The exception is Chevron (CVX), which reported a pretty good quarter. Bonds are rising in price, down in yield today. The 5-year Treasury yield fell back to 2.80% and the 10-year yield declined to 2.95%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 24, 2018

Stocks popped at the open but quickly turned around. The Dow is down 53 pts and the SPX is down .12%. The telecom sector is up over 1.5% after Verizon (VZ) reported first quarter earnings. Utilities and financials, which usually move opposite these days depending on interest rates, are both in the green. But tech, industrials, materials and consumer discretionary are sinking. WTI crude oil is trading back up over $69/barrel. Very few saw that coming at the beginning of 2018. Interest rates continue to march upward and that—along with earnings announcements—is the story of the day. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 2.83% and the 10-year yield just touched 3% for the first time since the beginning of 2014. Remember that over the last six months scads of Wall Street strategists and economists have said a 3% 10-year would absolutely upset the stock market. We’ll see.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 3, 2018

Stocks opened higher today, reversing yesterday’s rout. The Dow and SPX are currently up 113 pts and .4%, respectively. All eleven market sectors are in the green, led by consumer staples (+.8%) and materials (+.7%). In addition, small-caps and emerging markets are up between .7% and 1% in early trading. The VIX Index is back down to 22 after briefly touching 25 yesterday . WTI crude oil is trading back up to $63.40/barrel. Bonds are selling off with yields moving higher. The 5-year Treasury note yield is back up to 2.6% and the 10-year is up around 2.78%. The yield curve has flattened somewhat over the last couple of weeks, meaning that long-term inflation expectations are not keeping up with short-term Fed rate hike expectations. The difference between the 2-year and 10-year yields fell back to 50 basis points (or .50%). That’s the smallest spread since the fall of 2007.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 2, 2018

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -560 pts; SPX -2.6%). All eleven major market sectors are in the red in early trading. Tech, energy and consumer discretion are down the most. The VIX Index jumped up to 22 and VIX April futures are trading up around 21. Copper and gold are up about 1% but most other commodities are down this morning. WTI crude oil is down 2.8% to trade around $63.10/barrel. Bonds are modestly higher in price, lower in yield. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 2.56% and 2.74%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 20, 2018

The major stock market averages dipped at the open but quickly recovered. The Dow and SPX are currently down 77 pts & up .1%, respectively. The SPX has now recovered 70% of its correction losses. Telecoms, utilities and consumer staples sectors are down over 1% this morning due to interest rate sensitivity and a weak earnings announcement from Wal-Mart (WMT). Semiconductors and banks, on the other hand, are in the green. The VIX Index is hovering around 20, generally regarded as the dividing line between low and high volatility. The only reason that matters is that hedge fund trade algorithms are sometimes programmed to trade on VIX moves relative to 20. Bonds are down in price again as yields head higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 2.67% and the 10-year is up around 2.91%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 1, 2017

The major stock market averages opened down after the Dow hit 24,000 for the first time yesterday. At the moment, the Dow is down 133 pts and the SPX is down .6%. The energy sector shot up over .8% in early trading. Pharmaceutical stocks are also up over .6%. On the other hand, most everything else is in the red. Semiconductors are down 2% and transports are down 1%. VIX Index futures, which attempt to guess at market volatility over the next couple of months, are up around 11.7. That’s still very low. The dollar is a bit stronger today but commodities are up a lot. Bloomberg’s Commodity Index is up over 1% today. WTI crude oil, which has been in an up-trend since June, is now at $58.70/barrel. Apparently, OPEC decided to extend is self-imposed production cuts through the end of 2018. On one hand, OPEC is not to be trusted. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia really needs to boost oil prices in front of its IPO of Aramco next year. Bonds are modestly higher in price today. The 5-year Treasury yield is at 2.11% and the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 2.40%.   


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 22, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow -51 pts; SPX -.09%). Gold miners, retailers, transports, and biotechs are all trading higher. On the other hand, semiconductors, banks, real estate and utilities are in the red. So there’s no risk-on or risk-off pattern. The VIX Index is going nowhere, still trading under 10. Asia was up overnight. In fact, the Nikkei is now up over 23% for the year and the Hang Seng is up 35%. The UK government just cut its economic growth forecast to 1.5% from the previous 2.0% forecast, but for some reason I’m not seeing much of a market reaction. The dollar is weaker against a basket of foreign currencies, and commodities are predictably trading higher. Gold, copper, iron ore and oil are all in the green. WTI crude oil is up 1.7% to about $57.80/barrel. Bonds are firming a bit after a two-week selloff. The 5-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.07% and the 10-year yield edged down to 2.34%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 27, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +43 pts; SPX +.8%) due to positive earnings announcements. Tech (+2.7%) and consumer discretionary (+1.3%) sectors are leading the way. That really just means that Facebook, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Intel and Apple are up big. Not quite FAANG, but close. The dollar is a bit stronger on the day, and has been moving higher for the last month. WTI crude oil is up 2% to trade around $53.75/barrel—the highest since early March. Saudi Arabia has to prop up prices in advance of Aramco’s IPO. Bonds are rising modestly today after having been hammered since mid-September. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.04% and 2.43%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 28, 2017

he major stock market averages gapped up at the open. The Dow and SPX are currently up 134 pts & .75%, respectively. Banks, semiconductors, biotechs and transports are leading the way (all +1% or more). Utilities is the only sector in the red. The dollar is down a bit and most commodities are slightly higher. Oil prices ticked up after a positive gasoline inventory report. WTI crude oil is hovering around $44.70/barrel. Bonds are selling off again for the second consecutive day. The 5-year Treasury yield is up to 1.83% and the 10-year yield is up to 2.22%. Most of the move is reaction to recent comments from central bankers. Yesterday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the banking sector is very strong and she doesn’t expect another financial crisis in our lifetimes. Also, European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi essentially declared victory over deflation in Europe. Today, Bank of England (BOE) chief Carney said the BOE may have to start raising interest rates soon. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 26, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning, digesting the prior week’s gains. The Dow is down 22 pts and the SPX is off .1%. Banks, semiconductors and energy stocks are leading the indices lower. The VIX Index just dropped under 10, right around the lowest level in at least 10 years. VIX June futures are trading under 12 this morning. So an apparent lack of concern (“complacency”) among traders is a bit of a concern. The dollar is modestly stronger today, yet most commodities are a bit higher. WTI crude oil is up .5% to trade around $49/barrel. Oil prices fell sharply yesterday even as OPEC pledged to extend its oil production freeze. Investors were hoping the cartel would agree to deeper cuts. Bonds are trading slightly higher. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.79% and 2.25%, respectively. And by the way, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 3.95%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.