Apple (AAPL)

MANIC MARKET FLIPS ON TRADE HEADLINES

Stocks rallied after the Trump Administration delayed some of the new trade tariffs planned for next month. The Dow is currently up 363 pts, the SPX is up 1.3% and the Nasdaq is up almost 1.6%. Not surprisingly, the leading sectors today—consumer discretionary, industrials, tech—are viewed as having the most vulnerability to an escalating trade war. By contrast, the two sectors seen as the safest in an uncertain global trade environment—utilities and real estate—are in the red today. The VIX Index, a common gauge of fear among options traders, fell back to 17.9 from 21 yesterday. European stock markets rallied sharply on the trade tariff news as well. Asian markets, however, were down overnight on civil unrest in Hong Kong. The US dollar continues to strengthen as the Chinese yuan weakens. But better investor sentiment today is propping up commodities. WTI crude oil spiked 3% to $56.80/barrel for no good reason. Bonds are selling off after an enormous 2019 rally. The 10-year Treasury Note yield bounced back to 1.68% this morning. Since investors’ primary concerns at the moment are 1) trade war, and 2) falling interest rates, any day in which rate rise will generally evoke risk-on sentiment.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

MIXED SIGNALS ON THE ECONOMY

The major stock market averages opened slightly higher after Apple’s (AAPL) surprise earnings announcement (sell below). The Dow is currently up 39 pts and the SPX is just above flat. Not surprisingly, the tech sector is leading the way, up .8% in early trading. The defensive sectors are giving up yesterday’s gains (except, oddly, for real estate). The energy sector is down .8% on lower oil prices. WTI crude oil fell back to $63.40/barrel following a report showing higher than expected crude stockpiles. Bonds are gaining ground again today as yields tick lower. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.48%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

HEALTHCARE ROUT

Stocks opened a bit lower this morning (Dow -23 pts; SPX -.2%). The healthcare sector is down nearly 2% today and 5.5% so far this month. The direct cause is fear over the rise of socialism in Congress. See yesterday’s update for more details. The real estate sector is down 1% today and 2.7% this month after having climbed over 17% during the first quarter. Semiconductor stocks are up over 1% after Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) finally settled their legal battle over intellectual property. The energy sector is up about .5% after a report showing lower than expected crude stockpiles in the US. Commodities are mixed. Copper is now up 14% this year and a good portion of that has to do with China stimulating its economy. WTI crude is flat on the day at $64/barrel. Bonds are trading pretty flat as well. The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering around 2.59%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 7, 2019

January 7, 2019

Stocks opened modestly higher this morning as China trade talks get underway. The Dow and SPX are current up 91 pts and .6%, respectively. Consumer discretionary (+2%) and energy sectors (+1%) are faring the best in early trading. Worst performing are utilities (-.7%) and consumer staples (-.2%). The dollar is a bit weaker today and that’s giving commodities some breathing room. WTI crude oil is back up over $49/barrel after Dow Jones reported the Saudis would like to push oil prices back up to $80/barrel. Bonds are trading higher along with stocks. You don’t see that very often. It is true that lately when the stock market rises, corporate bonds also rally. But Treasury bonds don’t usually move in tandem with stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.67%. My guess is that investors would like to see Treasuries sell off a bit and give stocks an all-clear signal.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 3, 2019

January 3, 2019

Stocks opened sharply lower after a profit warning from Apple Inc. (see below). The Dow is currently down 519 pts and the SPX is down 1.5%. Eight of eleven major market sectors are lower, led by tech (-3.6%) and industrials (-2%). The defensive sectors are in the green (real estate, utilities, consumer staples). European markets closed down about 1% and nearly all of Asia was down overnight. Commodities are mixed in early trading. WTI crude oil fell back slightly to trade around $46.30/barrel. Gold is up by .5%. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Corporates (both investment grade and junk) are lower, but Treasuries are moving higher. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are down around 2.40% and 2.58%, respectively. Those are both around 1-year lows. The bond market is telling you there is no need for the Fed to raise rates during the first half of 2019.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 31, 2018

August 31, 2018

The major stock market indexes are mixed in early trading (Dow -55 pts; SPX -.13%; Nasdaq +.1%). Retailers, semiconductors and REITs are moving up, but most other groups are in the red. Banks and oil companies are some of the worst-performing groups, and year-to-date they’ve been flattish. Trade volume is pretty light in front of the three-day weekend. European stock markets are down about 1% and Asian markets were down overnight. Over the last 24 hours we’ve seen headlines saying President Trump is leaning toward imposing trade tariffs on another $200bil in Chinese imports, and he’s also doing his part to cast doubt on the trade talks between US and Canadian officials this week. Today is the deadline for negotiating a new NAFTA deal with Canada. That country’s foreign affairs minister said the two sides are “not there yet.” That haze of political uncertainty will keep a lid on stock market gains for now.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 11, 2018

Stocks sank at the open this morning as the Trump Administration proposed an additional 10% tariff on $200bil of imported Chinese goods. The Dow is currently down 157 pts and the SPX is down .6%. Semiconductors are down more than 2% in early trading. The worst performing sectors are energy, materials and industrials—all down over 1%. Only utilities are in the green. European stock markets are poised to close down over 1% and Asia was down over 1% last night. Most commodities are also trading lower. WTI crude oil is back down to $72.60/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are currently at 2.75% and 2.85%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 19, 2018

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -281 pts; SPX -.55%) mostly on trade war jitters. Industrials and materials—two sectors heavily influenced by global trade—are down about 2%; tech is down about 1.1%. The defensives—consumer staples, utilities, telecom—are trading higher in today’s mini sector rotation. The VIX Index jumped up to nearly 14 and VIX July futures are trading up around 14.4. European stock markets look to close down about 1% and Asia was very negative overnight. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.8% and is now down over 11% year-to-date. Most commodities—including gold—are down today. WTI crude oil fell 1.4% to $64.90/barrel on rumors that Saudi Arabia and Russia would like to remove OPEC oil production limits. Of course, we know that oil prices are routinely manipulated day-to-day by rumors and we know that Saudi would much rather have oil up around $80 than down around $60. Bonds are trading higher this morning in response to the stock selloff. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields dipped to 2.76% and 2.89%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 8, 2018

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow & SPX flat) as the G-7 meeting got underway in Canada. Energy, telecom and tech sectors are leading to the downside. Consumer staples and healthcare are up modestly in early trading. Apple (AAPL) is down after another private research firm warned that the company is reducing order volume for iPhone components. I can’t believe after all these years we’re still falling for that one. The US dollar is a bit stronger today and commodities are understandably weaker. WTI crude oil is down .8% to trade around $65.40/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.77% and the 10-year yield is currently at 2.93%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 2, 2018

Stocks gapped down at the open this morning. The Dow is currently down 101 pts and the SPX is down .4%. The consumer staples sector—now the worst performer of 2018—is down 1.4% in early trading. Telecoms and the healthcare sector are off about 1%. Energy and tech are trading modestly higher. The VIX Index sank to 15 today (2-month low), suggesting that while choppiness is the order of the day investors don’t expect a big move lower. Commodities are mostly higher, led by copper and iron ore. WTI crude oil is up slightly to trade around $67.40/barrel (near 3+ year highs). Bonds are also modestly higher in price, lower in yield today. The 5-year Treasury yield is at 2.82% and the 10-year is hovering around 2.97%. Everyone is waiting for the Fed announcement later today. Consensus says the Fed won’t raise its short-term policy interest rate, but many are expecting the statement to sound more hawkish.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 8, 2018

Stocks opened lower again this morning, but we could easily close up…who knows. The Dow and SPX are currently down 412 pts and 1.29%, respectively. Cyclical sectors—consumer discretion, financials, industrials, tech—are leading to the downside. Only real estate and utilities are in the green at the moment. The VIX Index, which spiked to 37 on Monday, is trading back down to 27. VIX March futures are trading at 21, suggesting that stock volatility is expected to drop a bit over the next couple of months. While Asia closed up overnight, European markets are down between 1% and 2%. WTI crude oil is down again, trading at $61/barrel on a couple of reports suggesting higher crude stockpiles and output. Bonds are selling off as yields tick higher. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are up around 2.58% and 2.86%, respectively. The for the 10-year, the next level of resistance is around 3%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 3, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow & SPX flat; Nasdaq +.3%). Biotechs, utilities, retailers and consumer staples stocks are faring well in early trading. And select names like Apple (AAPL) are up after reporting earnings. But gold miners, banks, REITs, and materials stocks are in the red. We got a raft of economic data, much of which was positive. The VIX Index backed down to 9.7, which suggests a continued low volatility environment for equities. Commodities are mostly lower but WTI crude oil is hanging in there at $54.50/barrel. Bonds are trading modestly lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields edged up to 2.02% and 2.36%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 20, 2017

Stocks are mixed in early trading (Dow +16 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq -.24%). We’ve seen a rotation in the last couple of weeks away from defensive sectors (i.e. utilities, consumer staples) and toward cyclicals (industrials, financials, energy, materials). This seems to be driven by a rebound in interest rates & oil; it’s hard to say how long that will last. This morning, transports are up 1.5%, biotechs are up .7%, and energy stocks are up about .6%. We are seeing some uncharacteristic weakness in semiconductors after Apple (AAPL) admitted lower pre-orders for the new iPhone 8 because consumers are waiting for the iPhone X. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 2, 2017

Stocks are mostly lower in early trading (Dow +23 pts; SPX -.3%; Nasdaq -.7%). The Dow briefly touched 22,000 for the first time. The energy sector is down .4% after a negative crude oil inventory report. Telecoms are down .7% after having spiked 10% in less than a month. Semiconductors (-1.2%) are giving back some recent gains as well. Utilities are modestly higher. The VIX Index is up around 10.2 and VIX August futures are trading at 11.4. So expected stock market volatility is still very much in check. Commodities are mixed but WTI crude oil is back down to $48.80/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged today; the 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are sitting at 1.81% and 2.25%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 28, 2017

he major stock market averages gapped up at the open. The Dow and SPX are currently up 134 pts & .75%, respectively. Banks, semiconductors, biotechs and transports are leading the way (all +1% or more). Utilities is the only sector in the red. The dollar is down a bit and most commodities are slightly higher. Oil prices ticked up after a positive gasoline inventory report. WTI crude oil is hovering around $44.70/barrel. Bonds are selling off again for the second consecutive day. The 5-year Treasury yield is up to 1.83% and the 10-year yield is up to 2.22%. Most of the move is reaction to recent comments from central bankers. Yesterday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the banking sector is very strong and she doesn’t expect another financial crisis in our lifetimes. Also, European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi essentially declared victory over deflation in Europe. Today, Bank of England (BOE) chief Carney said the BOE may have to start raising interest rates soon. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 26, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning, digesting the prior week’s gains. The Dow is down 22 pts and the SPX is off .1%. Banks, semiconductors and energy stocks are leading the indices lower. The VIX Index just dropped under 10, right around the lowest level in at least 10 years. VIX June futures are trading under 12 this morning. So an apparent lack of concern (“complacency”) among traders is a bit of a concern. The dollar is modestly stronger today, yet most commodities are a bit higher. WTI crude oil is up .5% to trade around $49/barrel. Oil prices fell sharply yesterday even as OPEC pledged to extend its oil production freeze. Investors were hoping the cartel would agree to deeper cuts. Bonds are trading slightly higher. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.79% and 2.25%, respectively. And by the way, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 3.95%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 4, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow -14 pts; SPX flat). Consumer staples (particularly ABC, CVS, GIS) are up .7% at the moment and financials & healthcare sectors are up modestly. On the other hand, telecoms & real estate—interest rate sensitive groups—are falling. The dollar is lower today but most commodities are down as well. Gold is down 1.5%. WTI oil is down over 4.8% to trade around  $45.50/barrel for the first time since November 2016. It just blew through the key short-term support level of $47; the next support level is around $45, and then $42. Bonds are selling off too, strangely, with yields moving sharply higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is up to 1.88% and the 10-year is up around 2.35%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 3, 2017

Stocks opened this morning (Dow -65 pts; SPX -.35%). Nine of eleven sectors are lower in early trading, led by real estate and materials (down 1%). Banks are one of the few groups trading up at the moment. The dollar is a bit stronger and commodities are lower. That probably has something to do with the Fed policy meeting today. We’ll get an announcement around 2pm EST. WTI crude oil opened down .5% but quickly turned around and is now up .5% to $47.70/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield is 1.83% and the 10-year is trading at 2.29%. With the move in the dollar and real estate, one would think bond yields would be higher. Anyway, given the soft economic data we’ve had over the past six weeks, it’s surprising capital markets would be moving as if they expect a hawkish announcement from the Fed today.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 1, 2017

The major market averages gapped up at the open but quickly turned around. The Dow is up 22 pts and the SPX is flat. Banks and semiconductors are leading the way, each up nearly 1%. Utilities, on the other hand, are giving back yesterday’s gains. The VIX Index is collapsing back down under 12 and that’s giving the market room to rise. Remember, the moment the VIX begins to rise toward 14-16 short-term traders will be selling. The dollar is up today (maybe due to better than expected economic data) and yet commodities are higher as well. WTI crude oil is trading up over $53/barrel. Bonds are selling off, reversing yesterday’s gains. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up to 1.97% and 2.50%. In some respects, capital markets have been without trend over the last month. A Trump Rally built on hope must now give way to other more concrete factors like earnings season and economic data. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 16, 2016

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow +28 pts; SPX flat). Real estate and utilities are the best performing sectors, up over 1%. Financials, consumer discretion and materials are lower. So we’re seeing a risk-off trend today. The VIX Index is down 3% to 12.4, suggesting little fear on the part of investors. The dollar is flat today but has been trending upward (+4.5% this year). And yet, commodities are mostly higher on the year. That could possibly signal better global economic growth overcoming the currency headwind. At the moment, WTI crude oil is up to nearly $52/barrel. Bonds are flattish. The 5-year and 10-year Treasuries are yielding 2.07% and 2.60%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.