Bank of Japan

August 20, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +77 pts; SPX +.24%). Most sectors and industry groups are in green, led by energy, materials and industrials. However, semiconductors, gold miners and biotechs are not participating. The VIX Index is down slightly to trade around 12.5. Remember, the VIX is coming off of a mini spike to nearly 15 a week ago. European stock markets are broadly positive today, in the neighborhood of +.8% and most of Asia traded higher overnight. The dollar is flat against a basket of foreign currencies today but has spiked this month. WTI crude oil is up slightly to trade around $66.20/barrel. Copper is sitting near a 13-month low, mostly in sympathy with China’s trade war-induced stock market correction. Save oil, commodities generally haven’t done well this year (Gold -9%, silver -14%, iShares Global Agricultural Producers ETF -2%; iron ore flat). Bonds are up in price, down in yield this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield backed down to 2.70% and the 10-year yield fell to 2.83%. It does appear that yields are range-bound for the near term. In fact, over the last seven months the 10-year has been mostly confined to the range of 2.80% to 3.00%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 24, 2018

The major stock market averages surged at the open following a spate of better than expected earnings announcements. The Dow is up 185 pts and the SPX is up .6%. Energy and materials—i.e. commodity-based sectors—are up over 1% in early trading. Only the defensive interest-rate sensitive sectors—utilities, consumer staples, real estate—are down. The VIX Index is sagging back down to 12.2 as investors’ fortunes look slightly more secure this morning. WTI crude oil is up sharply to trade around $68.80/barrel. Copper, gold and iron ore are all up as well. Bonds are mixed this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.82% and the 10-year yield is flat around 2.96%. Short-term bonds are flat but everything else is up a bit. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 13, 2018

Stocks opened modestly higher (Dow +12 pts; SPX +.1%). Telecoms are down over 3% in early trading as a result of yesterday’s court decision on AT&T (sell below). That’s a one-time hit. But retailers, semiconductors and healthcare stocks are in the green. The VIX Index continues to slide toward 12 and VIX July futures are down around 13.7. It’s safe to say the recent stock market correction has been resolved even though we’re not yet back to all-time highs. Commodities are mostly higher today (gold, copper, iron ore, oil). WTI crude oil is hovering around 66.50/barrel. Bonds are ever so slightly higher on the day. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.81% and 2.95%, respectively. The Federal Reserve’s monthly policy meeting will wrap up today, however, so you can expect some interest rate volatility.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 23, 2018

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow flat; SPX +.15%). Most major market sectors are up slightly, led by consumer discretionary, healthcare and telecoms. The materials sector is sagging a bit as commodities pull back. The dollar is moving higher on commodity weakness and higher interest rates. Following a very strong two-week run, WTI crude oil is falling back toward $68/barrel. Aluminum prices fell sharply after the US Treasury softened sanctions against a specific Russian aluminum producer. Bonds are selling off today. The 5-year Treasury yield shot up to 2.82%, an 8 ½-year high. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.98%, a four-year high. Bond traders are bothered by the Federal Reserve’s apparent staunch commitment to raising rates despite the recent 10% stock market correction coupled with tame inflation readings. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 9, 2017

Stocks opened higher again this morning (Dow +99 pts; SPX +.3%). Healthcare stocks are on the rebound after yesterday’s rout. In fact, the Nasdaq Biotech Index is up 1.6% at the moment. Banks are also rallying over 1%. Bond replacement stocks, such as utilities, telecoms and real estate are down. The dollar is stronger against a basket of foreign currencies and bonds are selling off. The 5-year Treasury yield shot up to 2.31%, which is a long-term resistance level going back to April 2011. The 10-year yield is also moving higher, to 2.53% (highest since last March). The next level of resistance is 2.63%. If Friday’s CPI inflation report comes in high, the 10-year could possibly hit that resistance level in short order.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 19, 2017

Stocks opened slightly higher this morning (Dow +36 pts; SPX +.1%). The VIX Index is down around 10 as stock markets hover around all-time highs. Telecoms are up over 2% in early trading as Sprint (S) and T-Mobile USA (TMUS) are in talks to merge. Banks are up .5% as interest rates continue to edge upward. And for the same reason real estate and utilities are trading a bit lower.  The dollar is a bit weaker against a basket of foreign currencies, but commodities are mostly lower as well. WTI crude oil is down .3% to trade around $49.70/barrel. Both iron ore and copper are down for the month. Bonds are down in price again as yields rise. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 1.83%  and the 10-year is back up to 2.24%. Rates in the US seem very low until one looks overseas. The German and British 10-year note yields are currently trading at .44% and 1.31%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.