Brian Belski

MR. POWELL'S WILD RIDE

Stocks gapped up at the open during Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony this morning. The Dow is currently up 78 pts and the SPX is up .33%. But don’t expect the rally to last—and make no mistake, earnings season will trump any Fed rate cut in terms of influencing the direction of the stock market. At the moment, most sectors are in the green, led by energy and tech. Financials are down along with interest rates today. Crude oil, copper and gold are all up. WTI crude jumped 3% to trade around $59.50/barrel, right around the 2-month high. Bonds are rallying after Mr. Powell hinted at a rate cut (see below). The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 2.04%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 27, 2017

Stocks opened slightly higher this morning (Dow +5 pts; SPX +.11%). Financials, especially banks, and semiconductors are up over 1% in early trading. On the other hand, gold miners, utilities and consumer staples are down about 1%. European markets are poised to close up about .3% today. The dollar is a bit stronger against a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is trading up around $52.13/barrel. We haven’t seen a 52 handle on oil since April. Bonds are selling off today as interest rates tick higher. The 5-year Treasury note yield is back up to 1.90%, a two-month high. The 10-year Treasury note yield is up around 2.29% and the next stop is probably 2.39%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 11, 2017

Stocks opened lower. The Dow is currently down 25 pts and the SPX is down -.2%. Semiconductors and energy are moving higher, along with biotechs. On the other hand, gold miners, retailers, telecoms and REITs are lower in early trading. The VIX Index is down under 11 today and VIX August futures are trading around 12.6. European markets are poised to close slightly lower today although most of Asia was higher overnight. WTI crude oil is trading up toward $44.73. Treasury bonds are trading modestly lower today, and I actually saw a headline proclaiming that investors are spooked by higher rates. That’s sounds ridiculous when you consider that the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to a mere 2.38%. That can only be considered high if your chart only goes back 4 weeks. The bears can’t have their cake and eat it too. In other words, you can’t bemoan low rates as a consequence of slow economic growth and weak inflation expectations, but then declare that the market is afraid of rebounding rates as economic data begin to look a little better.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 2, 2016

Stocks opened lower today (Dow -42 pts; SPX -.4%). The SPX is now 4% off of its peak and the VIX Index is up to 19. Utilities (-2%), energy (-1.1%) and telecom (-.75%) are the worst performing sectors in early trading. The dollar is falling today but commodities aren’t getting a corresponding bump. WTI crude oil is down to $45/barrel this morning on a higher than expected oil inventory report. Bonds are up in price today (down in yield). The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 1.27% and 1.81%. The 2-year Treasury back at .82% shows that traders may have built in too much Fed rate hike panic. By the way, the Fed’s monthly meeting wraps up today and results will be announced. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.