Byron Wien

RELIEF RALLY

Stocks opened higher today on some ever-so-slightly encouraging trade headlines. The Dow is currently up 390 points and the SPX is up 1.5%. The best performing sectors—financials and tech—are up over 2% in early trading. Real estate and utilities are in the red. The VIX Index sank back to 17 and somehow traders are in the mood to buy stocks, saying we’re “oversold.” European markets closed up by about .5% to 1%. Commodities are mostly trading higher, save gold. WTI crude oil fell at the open but recovered to $53.30/barrel. The bond market is broadly lower today. The 10-year Treasury note yield rebounded to 2.14% this morning after falling to a 20-month low. By the way, 2019’s downshift in bond rates and inflation have stoked speculation that the Federal Reserve will be cutting its policy short-term interest rate before long. Fed officials are obviously noncommittal but Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech today that the Fed will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” That’s exactly what investors want to hear.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 11, 2018

October 11, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher but quickly gave way. The Dow is now down 230 pts and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is down 1% on the session. This is follow-through from yesterday’s rout, when the SPX gave up about 3%. Unlike yesterday, however, the tech sector is actually up slightly, whereas utilities and real estate sectors are down well over 1%. The energy sector is down 1.6% in early trading as oil prices retreat. The SPX is now about 6.6% off of its all-time high of about 2940. This morning, the index pulled back to a long-term support level of about 2,745. If today’s low holds, this will be viewed as a very orderly mini-correction.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 7, 2017

Stocks opened modestly higher today (Dow +74 pts; SPX +.3%). Cyclicals are leading the way; semiconductors, biotechs and transports are up about 1%. Utilities and consumer staples are losing ground. European markets will close about .2% higher and Asia was mostly higher overnight. The VIX Index is back down around 10.5 and VIX January futures are back down to 12.8. Commodities are mostly lower again today. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has lost 2.2% so far this month. WTI crude oil is bouncing back toward $56.40/barrel. Bonds prices are slightly higher today, lower in yield. The 5-year Treasury yield is at 2.12% and the 10-year is at 2.33%. The yield curve is flattening again. Over the course of 2017 the difference between the 2-year and 10-year yields has shrunk to .52% from 1.25%. Most institutional investors believe that the yield curve will probably invert—that is, short-term yields will exceed long-term yields—in the second half of 2018.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.