China

INCREASING PRESSURE ON CHINA

The major stock market averages gapped up at the open, but quickly faded. The Dow is currently up 47 pts and the SPX is up .29%. Energy is the best performing sector, up 1.1% on higher oil prices. And unlike yesterday, cyclical sectors are faring well but defensives are in the red. There’s just no discernible trend in the market this week. European stock markets closed roughly flat this morning and most of Asia was lower overnight. Hong Kong protests over a proposed extradition law are gaining momentum and have grown violent. Bloomberg reports hundreds of thousands of people are involved. Hong Kong is officially autonomous but China’s communist party exercises effective control. Commodities are trading sharply higher, led by oil. WTI crude oil climbed back to nearly $53/barrel after terror attacks—likely initiated by Iran—on two oil tankers in the Strait Hormuz. Bonds are again moving higher in price, lower in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.10%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

MEXICO TRADE RELIEF

Stocks opened higher today after US & Mexican negotiators reached a tentative arrangement to avoid new trade tariffs. The Dow is currently up 174 pts and the SPX is up 1%. Consumer discretionary, financials and technology sectors are all up 1.5% or more in early trading. The VIX Index—a common gauge of fear among traders—sank back to 16. European stock markets closed up by about .5% and most Asian markets were up over 1% last night. In the wake of the Mexico headline, the dollar strengthened and gold & bonds fell. WTI crude oil is trading flat just under $54/barrel. Most areas of the bond market are down today, except for junk bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back to 2.14%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

RELIEF RALLY

Stocks opened higher today on some ever-so-slightly encouraging trade headlines. The Dow is currently up 390 points and the SPX is up 1.5%. The best performing sectors—financials and tech—are up over 2% in early trading. Real estate and utilities are in the red. The VIX Index sank back to 17 and somehow traders are in the mood to buy stocks, saying we’re “oversold.” European markets closed up by about .5% to 1%. Commodities are mostly trading higher, save gold. WTI crude oil fell at the open but recovered to $53.30/barrel. The bond market is broadly lower today. The 10-year Treasury note yield rebounded to 2.14% this morning after falling to a 20-month low. By the way, 2019’s downshift in bond rates and inflation have stoked speculation that the Federal Reserve will be cutting its policy short-term interest rate before long. Fed officials are obviously noncommittal but Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech today that the Fed will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” That’s exactly what investors want to hear.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

STOCKS SAG IN FRONT OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND

Stocks gapped up at the open but quickly lost momentum. The Dow is currently up 26 points and the SPX is up .25%. Most sectors are bouncing back a little after yesterday’s rout. But the energy sector continues to struggle under the weight of rising crude inventories. The market is of course wandering aimlessly on Tweets and headlines regarding trade. European markets closed up by about .6% and most of Asia was modestly higher overnight. Commodities are having their worst week so far this year, dented by trade & global growth fears. Copper is down 1.6% today (and nearly 9% so far this month) on China jitters. WTI crude oil is flat, trading around $60/barrel. Bonds aren’t moving much today after strong gains earlier this week. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.32%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

STOCKS DOWN WITH HEADLINES

Stocks sank at the open, as is their custom this month. The Dow is currently down 367 pts and the SPX is down 1.5%. Energy is the worst performing sector, down 3.5% (see below). Most other sectors are down about 1% except the defensives (utilities, consumer staples, real estate). VIX Index June futures are trading up around 17, but that’s not considered elevated. There’s no real panic in the market, just a slow bleed on trade headlines. European stock markets closed down about 1.5% today and Asia was uniformly down overnight. The bond market is catching a bid—especially safe-haven Treasury bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield is down to 2.32%, the lowest level since November 2017.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TRADE WAR II HERE TO STAY

Stocks opened lower again this morning (Dow -71 pts; SPX -.26%). But remember, the recent pattern has been a lower open with late afternoon recovery. At the moment, the energy sector is down 1.2% on concerns that China will reduce purchases of US natural gas. Tech, industrials and consumer discretionary sectors are down as well on trade tensions. Defensive sectors are in the green as traders shift into low volatility plays. The VIX Index is pretty low (14.8) considering current geopolitical tension. Commodities are mostly lower, led by oil. WTI crude fell back to $61.75/barrel. Copper is flat on the day, as is gold. In fact, gold has done nothing since the trade war reignited. Remember when gold used to be a dependable safe-haven play? Bonds are trading higher as yields edge lower. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.39%. All types of bonds—investment grade, junk, asset-backed, Treasuries, long-term, short-term—have done pretty well this year because interest rates are down.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

NOTHING TO SEE HERE, HAVE A NICE WEEKEND

Stocks dropped at the open but quickly recovered after a positive consumer sentiment report. The Dow is currently flat and the SPX is down .28%. Utilities and healthcare sectors are up modestly. Most retailers are catching a bid as well. On the other hand, semiconductors, energy and industrials are in the red. European markets closed down about .4% and China’s markets dived more than 2% last night. Emerging markets funds have really underperformed this month on rising trade tensions. Commodities are mostly lower today. WTI crude oil is flat at about $62.90/barrel. Remember, oil is reacting to Iran’s terrorism, not to the US-China trade dispute. Bonds aren’t moving much, except at the long end. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.39%. Bond traders are watching to see if the 10-year can hold above near-term support at 2.37%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

RELIEF RALLY

Stocks opened higher this morning in an attempt to recover from a week-long 5% correction. The Dow is currently up 219 pts and the SPX is up 1.25%. Ten of eleven market sectors are in the green, led by tech (+1.9%), financials (+1.5%) and energy (1.7%). The VIX Index—a common gauge of fear among traders—fell back to 18.5. Oil prices also recovered after a series of attacks on Saudi oil tankers and pumping stations, presumably by Iran in retaliation for trade sanctions. WTI crude is back up around $61.80/barrel. Bonds are little changed this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 2.42%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TRADE WAR ESCALATION

Stocks gapped down at the open after China escalated the trade war with fresh tariffs on US goods. The Dow is currently down 624 pts and the SPX is down 2.5%. The US stock market is now down about 5% from its recent all-time high. The worst performing sectors today are tech, industrials and consumer discretionary—those considered hardest hit by trade tariffs. The only sector with gains today is utilities. The VIX Index jumped up to 20.6 but VIX June futures are trading at 18.6. Commodities are mostly lower. Bloomberg’s Commodity Index (BCOM) is down .6% today, but still up slightly on the year. WTI crude oil fell back to $61/barrel. Bonds are not surprisingly rising in value. The 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 2.39% and the next real support level is March’s low of 2.37%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

STOCKS MIXED, AT THE MERCY OF TRADE HEADLINES

Stocks opened mixed this morning at the mercy of trade-related headlines. The Dow is currently up 70 points and the SPX is flat. The Nasdaq is down slightly The VIX Index back down just a bit to 19. Strangely enough, the utilities sectors is down by more than 1% in early trading. The materials and communications services sectors are down modestly. On the other hand, real estate, industrials and consumer discretionary sectors are up about .3%. Most commodities are trading lower today, save oil. Iron ore is down 1%, copper is down .6%. WTI crude bounced back 1% to trade at $62/barrel on a lower than expected crude inventory report. Bonds are again mixed, with corporates flat and Treasuries up. The 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 2.46%. However, look at junk bonds. The SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is actually higher on the day, suggesting the renewed trade fight isn’t the end of the world.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TROUBLE WITH TRADE

The major stock market averages gapped down at the open after news that US-China trade talks are breaking down. The Dow is currently down 220 pts and the SPX is down .95%. Consumer discretionary, industrials, tech and materials sectors are all down more than 1%. The VIX Index spiked briefly to 19 before falling back to 16. WTI crude oil dipped slightly to $61.60/barrel. The US dollar strengthened and gold is modestly higher today. Bonds are trading higher (except for junk). The 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 2.48%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

INVESTOR SENTIMENT IMPROVING ON TRADE TALKS

INVESTOR SENTIMENT IMPROVING ON TRADE TALKS

INVESTOR SENTIMENT IMPROVING ON TRADE TALKS

The major stock market averages surged in early trading following a report that the Chinese are offering trade concessions (see below). The Dow is currently up 280 pts and the SPX is up 1.2%. The materials & industrials sectors shot up 1.8%. Those groups have perhaps suffered the most from the trade war and may have the most to gain from a trade deal. As sentiment regarding a potential trade deal improves, the VIX Index continues to soften (now down to 17.6). And oil prices continue to recover (up around $53.60/barrel). Bonds are trading as you would expect on a very risk-on day. Treasuries are down in price, up in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield is back up around 2.78%, and wants to test resistance around 2.81%. Corporates, on the other hand, are at long last catching a bid. And for today, the worse the credit quality, the higher the price gain.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 17, 2018

December 17, 2018

The major stock market averages fell at the open but quickly pared losses. At the moment, the Dow and SPX are down 104 pts and .5%, respectively. Utilities and real estate sectors are down over 1% in early trading, whereas the financial sector is finally catching a bid. Semiconductors are up 1% as well. The VIX Index is up around 22.5 and VIX January futures are up around 21. That tells us traders are still nervous and expect continued volatility. The dollar is a bit weaker today, but commodities aren’t uniformly higher. WTI crude oil fell back to $50/barrel. Copper is down again—now -20% on the year. That ought to tell you China’s economy is slowing. Bonds are catching a bid as interest rates tick lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 2.71% and 2.86%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 12, 2018

December 12, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +350 pts; SPX +1.57%). A number of sectors are up more than 1.5% in early trading: tech, communications services, energy, healthcare, industrials and consumer discretionary. Semiconductor stocks are rallying sharply for the second consecutive session. The SOX Index is trying to recover from a pretty deep 21% correction this year. The VIX Index is down around 20.6 and VIX January futures are trading down around 20, suggesting traders are less fearful than they were a week ago. The dollar is weaker on a benign inflation report (see below). That—along with OPEC’s decision to cut output—is helping oil prices recover. WTI crude is back up around $52.30/barrel. Bonds are mixed in early trading. For the second straight session, junk bonds are rallying; trying to recover from a 7% correction this year. Remember, junk bonds are seen as leading indicator of economic growth. In addition, we’re seeing Treasury bonds sell off for the third consecutive session. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up around 2.76% and 2.90%. For what it’s worth, the bond market seems to suggest that the worst of the stock market correction is past.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 4, 2018

October 4, 2018

Stocks sank at the open on Fed/interest rate fears. The Dow is currently down 255 pts and the SPX is down .9%. Bank—and strangely enough utilities—are just about the only groups posing gains in early trading. Consumer discretionary, healthcare, technology and telecommunications sectors are all down more than 1%. The VIX Index is back up around 13.3, as you might expect. European stock markets are down between .8% and 1.2% in today’s session. Most of Asia was down overnight with the notable exception of China, which saw gains of about 1%. The dollar is flat on the day and commodities are mostly lower. Bonds are also selling off as yields rise. The 10-year Treasury yield just climbed to 3.20% for the first time in seven years. And since short-term yields aren’t up as much, the yield curve is the steepest it has been in two months.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 1, 2018

October 1, 2018

Stocks surged at the open this morning (Dow +250 pts; SPX +.65%). Materials, industrial and energy sectors are all up over 1% in early trading. Only the most interest rate sensitive sectors—utilities and real estate—are in the red. The VIX Index fell below 12 and most global equities rallied. Even Chinese markets participated last night (Shanghai Composite +1%). The dollar is a little stronger today and commodities are mixed. Gold, copper and iron ore are falling in price, whereas WTI crude oil is up around $73.90/barrel. Despite trade war fears, global oil demand is healthy and the perceived constraint—what with trade sanctions in Iran & assorted problems in Venezuela—is supply. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Longer-term Treasuries are selling off a bit. The 10-year Treasury yield backed up to 3.06%. On the other hand, junk bonds are surging after a new trade deal with Canada was announced (see below).


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 26, 2018

September 26, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher this morning (Dow +49 pts; SPX +.24%). Consumer discretionary, healthcare and telecom sectors are leading the way (+.7%). Strangely enough, financials are sagging in front of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement later this afternoon. In addition, energy and materials sectors are in the red. The dollar is trading slightly higher and commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is back under $72/barrel. Gold is down .5% today and 8% so far this year. Despite a likely interest rate hike later today, the bond market is holding its own. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering at 2.98% and 3.09%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 18, 2018

September 18, 2018

Stocks surged at the open despite escalation of the trade war with China. The Dow is up 118 pts and the SPX is up .58%. Technology and consumer discretionary sectors—thought to be especially vulnerable to a trade war—are leading the way with 1% gains. European markets will close modestly higher and Asia was mostly higher overnight. In fact, China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.8% and copper prices surged more than 3%. That is absolutely not the expected reaction to more trade tariffs. Commodities are higher on the day and the US dollar is trading flat. Iron ore is up over 1% and WTI crude oil is up around $69.60/barrel. Bonds are selling off today as interest rates head higher. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are up around 2.92% and 3.03%, respectively. In addition, the yield curve steepened just a bit.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 14, 2018

September 14, 2018

Stocks opened higher again this morning, but quickly gave way after a report that President Trump wants additional trade tariffs on Chinese imported goods. Here we go again; all the news-algorithm traders just hit the sell button. The Dow and SPX are currently down 38 pts and .1%, respectively. Up until a few moments ago, transports, banks and semiconductors were the best performing groups in early trading. Foreign stock markets—even emerging markets—are trading higher on US dollar weakness as well as action by the Turkish government to stem their budding financial crisis. European markets are poised to close up by about .4% and Asia was broadly positive overnight. WTI crude oil is unchanged at about $68.60/barrel. Bonds are selling off as interest rates resume their slow slog upward. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.90%, the highest since May. The 10-year Treasury yield just moved back to 3.0%. It seems that whenever we get some positive economic news overseas, US Treasury yields rise. That’s because foreign investors often look to Treasuries as a safe haven investment when times are uncertain in their own countries.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 12, 2018

Stocks opened mixed (Dow +71 pts; SPX -.14%). Telecoms and consumer staples are leading the way, up more than 1%. Tech and financial sectors are lagging. A little optimism just crept in with this headline: “US Proposing New Trade Talks with China in the Near Future.” European stock markets will close up modestly but Asia was broadly negative overnight. The dollar is a bit weaker today against a basket of foreign currencies, so commodities are getting some life. Irion ore is up nearly 2% today, and WTI crude oil is up 2.8% to trade above $71/barrel, the highest in a month. Bonds are bouncing back a bit after yesterday’s beating. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.86% and 2.96%, respectively. That’s not much of a gap between the two, meaning that the yield curve is still very flat. The difference between the 2-year and 10-year yields is only about .22%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.