Costco (COST)

EARNINGS & STIMULUS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS & STIMULUS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS & STIMULUS TO THE RESCUE

The stock market gapped up at the open today on overseas headlines (see below). The Dow is currently up 126 pts and the SPX is up .24%. Banks are up over 2% in early trading after strong earnings reports from Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Oil fell back under $52/barrel in early trading, but that could easily turn around through the trading day. Bonds are mixed—corporates are modestly higher on the day but Treasuries are selling off as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded to 2.73% from 2.55% just 2 weeks ago. Remember, higher long-term Treasury yields will likely be viewed by investors as a positive for the economic outlook.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 13, 2018

Stocks gapped up at the open but quickly gave way. The Dow is currently down 39 pts and the SPX is flat. Defensive sectors are showing some strength today, as well as energy. But financials (especially banks) are down after some key earnings announcements. Despite that, the VIX Index is down around 17.8. WTI crude oil is up yet again, around $67.409/barrel, to new 3-year highs. The headlines cite rising geopolitical tensions, but whatever the reason, it can’t be supported by fundamentals. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.67% and the 10-year yield is trading at 2.82%. However, the 2-year Treasury yield continues to rise and at 2.36% is the highest since 2008. The yield curve continues to flatten.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 1, 2017

The major stock market averages opened down after the Dow hit 24,000 for the first time yesterday. At the moment, the Dow is down 133 pts and the SPX is down .6%. The energy sector shot up over .8% in early trading. Pharmaceutical stocks are also up over .6%. On the other hand, most everything else is in the red. Semiconductors are down 2% and transports are down 1%. VIX Index futures, which attempt to guess at market volatility over the next couple of months, are up around 11.7. That’s still very low. The dollar is a bit stronger today but commodities are up a lot. Bloomberg’s Commodity Index is up over 1% today. WTI crude oil, which has been in an up-trend since June, is now at $58.70/barrel. Apparently, OPEC decided to extend is self-imposed production cuts through the end of 2018. On one hand, OPEC is not to be trusted. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia really needs to boost oil prices in front of its IPO of Aramco next year. Bonds are modestly higher in price today. The 5-year Treasury yield is at 2.11% and the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 2.40%.   


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 26, 2016

Stocks are lower in early trading (Dow -41 pts; SPX -.12%). Here we go again with the seesaw—up one day and down the next. Defensive sectors are leading this morning and the cyclicals are in the red. Biotechs, transportation, and banks are down; telecom carriers, gold miners and discount retailers are higher. The dollar is lower and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is down slightly to $49.50/barrel. Bonds are trading higher as yields fall back a bit. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are at 1.37% and 1.84%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.