Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU)

STOCKS SAG IN FRONT OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND

Stocks gapped up at the open but quickly lost momentum. The Dow is currently up 26 points and the SPX is up .25%. Most sectors are bouncing back a little after yesterday’s rout. But the energy sector continues to struggle under the weight of rising crude inventories. The market is of course wandering aimlessly on Tweets and headlines regarding trade. European markets closed up by about .6% and most of Asia was modestly higher overnight. Commodities are having their worst week so far this year, dented by trade & global growth fears. Copper is down 1.6% today (and nearly 9% so far this month) on China jitters. WTI crude oil is flat, trading around $60/barrel. Bonds aren’t moving much today after strong gains earlier this week. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.32%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TRADE WAR II HERE TO STAY

Stocks opened lower again this morning (Dow -71 pts; SPX -.26%). But remember, the recent pattern has been a lower open with late afternoon recovery. At the moment, the energy sector is down 1.2% on concerns that China will reduce purchases of US natural gas. Tech, industrials and consumer discretionary sectors are down as well on trade tensions. Defensive sectors are in the green as traders shift into low volatility plays. The VIX Index is pretty low (14.8) considering current geopolitical tension. Commodities are mostly lower, led by oil. WTI crude fell back to $61.75/barrel. Copper is flat on the day, as is gold. In fact, gold has done nothing since the trade war reignited. Remember when gold used to be a dependable safe-haven play? Bonds are trading higher as yields edge lower. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.39%. All types of bonds—investment grade, junk, asset-backed, Treasuries, long-term, short-term—have done pretty well this year because interest rates are down.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

MARKET AT THE MERCY OF TRADE HEADLINES

Stocks gapped down at the open this morning, but quickly recovered after President Trump said he would delay planned auto import tariffs hikes. The Dow is currently up 41 pts and the SPX is up .5%. By the way, the Dow had its best day in a month yesterday. Ten of eleven sectors are in the green, led by communications services (+1.6%) and tech (+1%). Banks, on the other hand, are down along with interest rates. The VIX fell back to 17.3 today. Commodities are also trading higher today. WTI crude continues to climb on fears of Iranian terrorism in the Persian Gulf. Bonds are trading higher across the board, forcing yields lower. The 10-year Treasury Note yield is back down to 2.39% and will probably test its near-term support level of 2.37%. One doesn’t normally see stocks and bonds move in tandem. But of course any time geopolitical tensions rise one can expect safe-haven trades like gold and Treasuries to move higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

GREEN SHOOTS FOR THE ECONOMY

Stocks opened pretty flat this morning, waiting for the flood of earnings announcements scheduled this week. Today, the Dow is flat and the SPX is up .2%. The financial sector jumped 1.3% in early trading in reaction to rising interest rates (see below). The communications services sector is up .6% on a pop in telecom stocks. On the other hand, utilities and REITs—which are sensitive to interest rates—are down .5% to .7% today. Commodities are trading mostly lower. Copper plunged more than 5%--a big move for one day. We’ve heard that Chinese authorities are pulling back on economic stimulus, believing they’ve succeeded in stabilizing their economy. WTI crude oil is flat at $63.30/barrel. Bonds are selling off, especially at the long end. The 10-year US Treasury yield backed up to 2.53%. But the big news on the interest rate front is a surprise steepening of the yield curve. You may recall I’ve flagged the flat yield curve as a potential problem for the market and economy. The difference between short-term and long-term interest rates has been very small, suggesting slowing economic growth. Specifically, the difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has been in the range of just .10% to .20% for about five months now. But late last week the gap started to widen, breaking out of that range. This could be good news and it bears watching.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

GOLDMAN, CITIGROUP SOUR THE MOOD

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -82 pts; SPX -.3%). Defensive sectors are trading modestly higher (consumer staples, utilities, healthcare). Cyclicals, on the other hand, are in the red (i.e. energy, financials, industrials). US small-caps and foreign stocks are mostly lower as well. The VIX Index rose to 12.8 but is still at a very low level. Commodities are mostly lower in early trading. WTI crude oil fell back to $63.20/barrel. Gold is down a tad. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Treasuries are up slightly whereas corporates are down. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.55%. By the way, Germany’s 10-year sovereign bond yield ticked up to .07%, the highest in weeks. Investors are uneasy about the fact that billions of dollars of foreign sovereign bonds are trading with a negative yield. That is, investors are guaranteed to lose money. Aside of the fact that this doesn’t make any sense, it tends to encourage foreign bond investors (like pension funds and insurance companies) to buy US Treasuries instead. And that, in turn, drives our yields lower. The takeaway is that if German bond yields are rising, we can probably expect US Treasury yields to rise as well.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

EARNINGS SEASON KICKOFF

The major stock market averages gapped up at the open. The Dow is currently up 200 pts and the SPX is up .4%. The financial sector surged 1.5% on better than expected quarterly results by Wells Fargo (WFC) and JP Morgan (JPM), which kicked off earnings season today. Most other sectors are also trading higher, except real estate and healthcare. Commodities are mixed—oil is moving higher but copper and iron are in the red. Gold is flat today, and so far this year. WTI crude is back up over $64/barrel. Chevron (CVX) announced a deal to acquire Anadarko (APC), and investors are wondering if this is the beginning of a wave of consolidation in the industry. Bonds are trading mostly lower as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield is back up around 2.54%. If earnings season proves better than Wall Street is forecasting, you can bet interest rates & bond yields will move higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

WHERE TO NEXT?

Stocks opened slightly lower this morning. The Dow is currently down 50 points and the SPX is down .1%. Financials (+.3%) and industrials (+.5%) are bouncing back from yesterday’s declines. On the other hand, healthcare, energy and real estate sectors are in the red. WTI crude oil fell back to $63.50/barrel in early trading. Most other commodities are down as well, partly due to a strengthening US dollar. Bonds are also trading lower as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield bounced back up to 2.49%. Only junk bonds are holding flat.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

FOCUS ON INFLATION & THE FED

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow -13 pts; SPX +.2%, Nasdaq +.5%). The best performing groups in early trading are semiconductors and biotechs, both up about 1%. Banks are being dragged down by the theatrics of congressional testimony by major bank CEOs today. Retailers and industrials are also down a bit. The dollar is stronger against a basket of foreign currencies after the European Central Bank (ECB) reiterated warnings over slower economic growth and said it plans no interest rate hikes in the foreseeable future. WTI crude oil bounced back toward $64.20/barrel today despite the stronger dollar. Bonds are trading higher as well. The 10-year US Treasury yield backed down to 2.4% after today’s economic reports (see below). The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is up .27% and the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is up .3%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

IT'S ALL ABOUT INTEREST RATES

Stocks sank in early trading (Dow -152 pts; SPX -1%). All eleven major market sectors are down, led by energy (-1.4%), healthcare (-1.3%) and tech (-1.3%). Interest rates are driving the stock & bond markets today (see below). European markets lost steam at the end of their session, closing roughly flat. Commodities are mostly lower today (copper -.3%; gold -.4%; iron ore -.2%). WTI crude oil backed down to $59.50/barrel. Bonds are, not surprisingly, higher on the day as yields tick lower. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.37%, the lowest level since December 2017. Persistent concerns about global economic growth are propping up the bond market.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

SENTIMENT U-TURN ON BOND MARKET CONCERNS

The major stock market averages rolled over this morning. The Dow is currently down 379 pts and the SPX is off by 1.7%. The Nasdaq is down 2.1%. Energy, financials and materials—the sectors that tend to do poorly when interest rates drop—are down by more than 2% in early trading. On the other hand utilities, real estate and consumer staples—defensive sectors that do well in slower growth, lower-rate markets—are in the green. European stock markets closed down more than 1.5%, although most of Asia was in the green overnight. Commodities are mostly lower today. WTI crude oil backed down to $58.50/barrel. The bond market is rising as yields fall. Clearly, some capital is draining out of stock and flowing into bonds today. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.43%, the lowest since December 2017.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

IT'S ALL ABOUT THE FED

Stocks opened sharply higher today (Dow +161 pts; SPX +.67%). Interest-rate sensitive sectors are moving in response to yesterday’s Fed meeting (see below). Homebuilders, REITs, and utilities are up nicely, while banks are down on the day. Commodities are mixed (gold down, copper and iron ore up). WTI crude oil is flat, hovering around $60/barrel. Bonds are sharply higher as well. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 2.52% after the Fed announcement. That’s a 14-month low. The yield curve flattened again; the difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields is down to 11 basis points (.11%).


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

WALL STREET MORE OPTIMISTIC

Stocks opened mixed. The Dow is currently down 30 pts but the SPX is flat. Utilities, real estate, and communications services sectors are down somewhere between .6% and .9%. On the other hand, financial and energy sectors are up over 1%. The VIX Index jumped up to 13.5 today—still considered pretty low. Remember, the fear gauge spiked above 35 last December during the bear market correction. Investor fear, as measured by options trading activity, is near a 5-month low. Commodities are trading slightly higher today. WTI crude oil rose to $59/barrel, the highest level in 4 months. Oil has now retraced 50% of its massive plunge during the last quarter of 2018. An OPEC committee recommended deferring a decision on whether to extend current production cuts. Those cuts are what allowed oil to begin recovering in January. Bonds are mixed today, with Treasuries up slightly and corporate bonds a bit lower. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.60%, the lowest level since January 3rd.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

BOND MARKET DEBATE

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +89 pts; SPX +.5%). The best performing sectors include tech (+1.4%) and financials (+.7%). Sub-groups like biotechs and gold miners are also catching a bid. But real estate, energy and communications stocks are down in early trading. REITs just hit an all-time high, so it makes sense that we’d see some give-back here. The VIX Index continues to fall, suggesting traders are complacent about risk over the next 30 days. European markets will close higher by roughly .5% to 1% today. Asian markets also posted gains last night. The dollar is weaker against a basket of foreign currencies, giving a little boost to commodities. Remember, many commodities are priced in US dollars around the world. However, WTI crude oil ($58.40/barrel) is taking a breather today after a monster run year-to-date; same thing with copper (+11% YTD). Bonds are trading higher in price, lower in yield today. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down to a fresh 2 ½ month low of 2.59%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

GOOD NEWS ON THE ECONOMY

GOOD NEWS ON THE ECONOMY

Stocks opened modestly lower today (Dow -21 pts; SPX flat). The stock market has been softish for the last three days. Defensive sectors—real estate, consumer staples, utilities—are performing the best in early trading. Materials and energy sectors are down 1%, giving back some recent outperformance. The GDP report (see below) caused the dollar to strengthen and interest rates to rise. So not surprisingly, most commodities are in the red. WTI crude, however, is holding steady at $57/barrel. Bonds are falling in price, rising in yield. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is down nearly .5% today. The 10-year Treasury note yield backed up to 2.72%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TRADE DEAL CAUTION

TRADE DEAL CAUTION

The major stock market averages opened lower this morning, but quickly pared losses. At the moment, the Dow is down 92 pts and the SPX is down .17%. Banks and biotechs are up .6% to 1.4% in early trading. In addition, energy exploration stocks are up after EOG Resources (EOG) reported quarterly results. Oil prices are up at 3-month highs following a lower than expected crude inventory report. WTI crude oil is back up over $57/barrel. Most other commodities are up as well; the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 6.5% so far this year. Is it possible that this index is predicting a rebound in global economic growth later this year? Bonds are falling in price, rising in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.68% this morning. Nothing to see here.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

RISING INFLATION SAYS RECESSION NOT IMMINENT

RISING INFLATION SAYS RECESSION NOT IMMINENT

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning, but quickly faded. The Dow is currently up 70 pts and the S&P 500 (SPX) is up .2%. Gains are broad-based, led by energy, semiconductors and transports. Defensive sectors like utilities aren’t really participating. The VIX Index has stabilized below 16 over the last week. Foreign stock markets are acting better—especially China—and that suggests some expectation for resolution of trade concerns. Traders are excited about the fact that the SPX closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time in over two months. The index is now only about 6.5% below its all-time high reached 13 months ago. So risk assets are acting better this year. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is up 4.5% so far in 2019. WTI crude oil is back up over $54/barrel. Iron ore and copper are also climbing. I’ll point out that while falling commodity prices were seen as a very scary sign of falling economic growth in 2018, very few are seeing the commodity recovery as a sign global economic improvement.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 17, 2018

October 17, 2018

Stocks fell at the open but quickly turned around. At the moment, the Dow is flat and the SPX is up .13%. The market continues to flip-flop from one day to the next. For the most part, cyclical sectors—energy, tech, discretionary, materials—are leading to the downside while defensives—telecom, healthcare and staples—are trading higher. And wonder of all wonders, the financial sectors is actually showing some signs of life (+1.3%). European stock markets closed down about .5% whereas Asia was mostly higher overnight. Japan’s Nikkei, by the way, has clawed back to flat for the year. Commodities are mixed in early trading. After climbing to $76/barrel early this month, WTI crude oil has fallen back to $70/barrel. Bonds are modestly lower in price, and less risky Treasury bonds are unchanged while corporate bonds are in the red. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 3.02% and 3.16%, respectively. Year-to-date, the entire bond market has been a loser because inflation and interest rates have trended gradually higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 15, 2018

October 15, 2018

Stocks are mixed without direction after last week’s declines. At the moment, the Dow is down 47 pts, the SPX is down .4% and the Nasdaq is down .8%. Cyclical sectors are leading to the downside. The tech sector is down 1.3%; energy is down .7%; consumer discretionary is down .5%. On the other hand, defensives like utilities and real estate are catching a bid. Gold miners are up nearly 2%. The VIX Index is still hovering north of 20, belying some lingering fear from last week. European markets will close about .5% higher although most of Asia was down overnight. The dollar is weaker today, continuing a 1-week trend. WTI crude oil is down a bit to trade around $71.17/barrel. Bonds are trading slightly lower on the day as yields tick higher. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields rebounded to 3.01% and 3.16%, respectively. Remember, when stocks were tanking last week, the 10-year jumped briefly to 3.23%. So rates have backed down.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 12, 2018

October 12, 2018

The major stock market averages rebounded today at the open, but don’t expect it to last in front of a weekend. The Dow is currently up 87 pts and the SPX is up .7%. The market is, in technical terms, temporarily oversold. As of yesterday’s close, two-thirds of the S&P 500 was in correction territory (i.e. down 10% or more). At the moment, technology and consumer discretionary sectors are up over 1.3%. They took the brunt of selling over the last week. Most sectors are joining in the relief rally, save financials, energy, industrials and utilities. Despite some decent earnings announcements today, traders aren’t buying the banks. The VIX Index drifted down to 22 from 25 yesterday. European markets also gapped up at the open but are now poised to close down slightly. The bond market is mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 3.0% and 3.15%, respectively. The yield curve steepened significantly over the past week but isn’t doing much today.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 4, 2018

October 4, 2018

Stocks sank at the open on Fed/interest rate fears. The Dow is currently down 255 pts and the SPX is down .9%. Bank—and strangely enough utilities—are just about the only groups posing gains in early trading. Consumer discretionary, healthcare, technology and telecommunications sectors are all down more than 1%. The VIX Index is back up around 13.3, as you might expect. European stock markets are down between .8% and 1.2% in today’s session. Most of Asia was down overnight with the notable exception of China, which saw gains of about 1%. The dollar is flat on the day and commodities are mostly lower. Bonds are also selling off as yields rise. The 10-year Treasury yield just climbed to 3.20% for the first time in seven years. And since short-term yields aren’t up as much, the yield curve is the steepest it has been in two months.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.