European Central Bank (ECB)

FOCUS ON INFLATION & THE FED

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow -13 pts; SPX +.2%, Nasdaq +.5%). The best performing groups in early trading are semiconductors and biotechs, both up about 1%. Banks are being dragged down by the theatrics of congressional testimony by major bank CEOs today. Retailers and industrials are also down a bit. The dollar is stronger against a basket of foreign currencies after the European Central Bank (ECB) reiterated warnings over slower economic growth and said it plans no interest rate hikes in the foreseeable future. WTI crude oil bounced back toward $64.20/barrel today despite the stronger dollar. Bonds are trading higher as well. The 10-year US Treasury yield backed down to 2.4% after today’s economic reports (see below). The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is up .27% and the iShares Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is up .3%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

IT'S ALL ABOUT INTEREST RATES

Stocks sank in early trading (Dow -152 pts; SPX -1%). All eleven major market sectors are down, led by energy (-1.4%), healthcare (-1.3%) and tech (-1.3%). Interest rates are driving the stock & bond markets today (see below). European markets lost steam at the end of their session, closing roughly flat. Commodities are mostly lower today (copper -.3%; gold -.4%; iron ore -.2%). WTI crude oil backed down to $59.50/barrel. Bonds are, not surprisingly, higher on the day as yields tick lower. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.37%, the lowest level since December 2017. Persistent concerns about global economic growth are propping up the bond market.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

EARNINGS & STIMULUS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS & STIMULUS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS & STIMULUS TO THE RESCUE

The stock market gapped up at the open today on overseas headlines (see below). The Dow is currently up 126 pts and the SPX is up .24%. Banks are up over 2% in early trading after strong earnings reports from Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Oil fell back under $52/barrel in early trading, but that could easily turn around through the trading day. Bonds are mixed—corporates are modestly higher on the day but Treasuries are selling off as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded to 2.73% from 2.55% just 2 weeks ago. Remember, higher long-term Treasury yields will likely be viewed by investors as a positive for the economic outlook.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 11, 2018

October 11, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher but quickly gave way. The Dow is now down 230 pts and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is down 1% on the session. This is follow-through from yesterday’s rout, when the SPX gave up about 3%. Unlike yesterday, however, the tech sector is actually up slightly, whereas utilities and real estate sectors are down well over 1%. The energy sector is down 1.6% in early trading as oil prices retreat. The SPX is now about 6.6% off of its all-time high of about 2940. This morning, the index pulled back to a long-term support level of about 2,745. If today’s low holds, this will be viewed as a very orderly mini-correction.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 20, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +77 pts; SPX +.24%). Most sectors and industry groups are in green, led by energy, materials and industrials. However, semiconductors, gold miners and biotechs are not participating. The VIX Index is down slightly to trade around 12.5. Remember, the VIX is coming off of a mini spike to nearly 15 a week ago. European stock markets are broadly positive today, in the neighborhood of +.8% and most of Asia traded higher overnight. The dollar is flat against a basket of foreign currencies today but has spiked this month. WTI crude oil is up slightly to trade around $66.20/barrel. Copper is sitting near a 13-month low, mostly in sympathy with China’s trade war-induced stock market correction. Save oil, commodities generally haven’t done well this year (Gold -9%, silver -14%, iShares Global Agricultural Producers ETF -2%; iron ore flat). Bonds are up in price, down in yield this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield backed down to 2.70% and the 10-year yield fell to 2.83%. It does appear that yields are range-bound for the near term. In fact, over the last seven months the 10-year has been mostly confined to the range of 2.80% to 3.00%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 24, 2018

The major stock market averages surged at the open following a spate of better than expected earnings announcements. The Dow is up 185 pts and the SPX is up .6%. Energy and materials—i.e. commodity-based sectors—are up over 1% in early trading. Only the defensive interest-rate sensitive sectors—utilities, consumer staples, real estate—are down. The VIX Index is sagging back down to 12.2 as investors’ fortunes look slightly more secure this morning. WTI crude oil is up sharply to trade around $68.80/barrel. Copper, gold and iron ore are all up as well. Bonds are mixed this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.82% and the 10-year yield is flat around 2.96%. Short-term bonds are flat but everything else is up a bit. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 14, 2018

The major stock market averages gapped up at the open, but quickly faded. The Dow is currently flat and the SPX is up .25%. The Nasdaq is up .7%. The financial sector is down nearly 1% despite the Federal Reserve’s rate hike yesterday (see below). That’s quite a surprise. Utilities, telecom and real estate sectors, on the other hand, are up about 1% in early trading despite better economic data. European stock markets are surging today after the European Central Bank’s policy meeting (see below). The dollar is stronger today against a basket of foreign currencies and not surprisingly, commodities are mostly trading lower. WTI crude oil is down modestly to $66.50/barrel. Bonds are trading up modestly. The 5-year Treasury yield is pretty much unchanged at 2.82% but the 10-year Treasury yield ticked down to 2.95%. So the yield curve is flatter today. This is not at all what I expected to see this morning. What we have today is a tug-of-war between various powerful forces in the market. CNBC’s Rick Santelli characterized this market action as “incongruent.”


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 13, 2018

Stocks opened modestly higher (Dow +12 pts; SPX +.1%). Telecoms are down over 3% in early trading as a result of yesterday’s court decision on AT&T (sell below). That’s a one-time hit. But retailers, semiconductors and healthcare stocks are in the green. The VIX Index continues to slide toward 12 and VIX July futures are down around 13.7. It’s safe to say the recent stock market correction has been resolved even though we’re not yet back to all-time highs. Commodities are mostly higher today (gold, copper, iron ore, oil). WTI crude oil is hovering around 66.50/barrel. Bonds are ever so slightly higher on the day. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.81% and 2.95%, respectively. The Federal Reserve’s monthly policy meeting will wrap up today, however, so you can expect some interest rate volatility.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 7, 2018

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow +122 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq -.3%). Energy and telecom sectors spiked more than 1% in early trading. Retailers  and banks are also in the green. Tech, on the other hand, is lagging after revelations that Facebook (FB) shared user data with Chinese firms. And to be fair, the tech sector has already had a year’s worth of returns, up 13% so far in 2018. The VIX Index is trading up toward 12.3 and VIX July futures are up around 14.2. The dollar is weaker again today against a basket of foreign currencies, especially the Euro. And not surprisingly, most commodities are a bit higher. WTI crude oil is back up to $65.75/barrel. Copper is also up over 1% today, and 8% so far this month. We know copper tends to correlate with China’s economy, so that’s good news. Bonds are little changed today. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.81% and the 10-year note yield is holding right around 2.97%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 16, 2018

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow flat; SPX +.17%). Cyclical sectors—consumer discretion, materials, tech, industrials—are leading the way. Utilities and real estate, however, are extending declines. Emerging markets are up 1% (now flat on the year). The VIX Index is trading back down under 14. Trade volume is light. The dollar is up again today and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is down .4% to trade around $71/barrel. And by the way, the DOE says total US oil production is up around 10.7 million barrels per day—a record high. Bonds are selling off again. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 2.92% and the 10-year yield is up around 3.08%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 23, 2018

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow flat; SPX +.15%). Most major market sectors are up slightly, led by consumer discretionary, healthcare and telecoms. The materials sector is sagging a bit as commodities pull back. The dollar is moving higher on commodity weakness and higher interest rates. Following a very strong two-week run, WTI crude oil is falling back toward $68/barrel. Aluminum prices fell sharply after the US Treasury softened sanctions against a specific Russian aluminum producer. Bonds are selling off today. The 5-year Treasury yield shot up to 2.82%, an 8 ½-year high. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.98%, a four-year high. Bond traders are bothered by the Federal Reserve’s apparent staunch commitment to raising rates despite the recent 10% stock market correction coupled with tame inflation readings. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 8, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning but are fading. At the moment, the Dow is up 28 pts and the SPX is flat. The healthcare sector is leading the after a big M&A announcement (see below). Defensive sectors utilities, real estate and consumer staples are also in the green. But trading this morning can be considered a throw-away because President Trump will announce his decision on tariffs this afternoon. That event will certainly spark some volatility. The VIX Index fell below 17 earlier as traders expect less volatility over the next 30 days. The dollar is stronger and commodities are trading lower. WTI crude oil is down 1% to $60.60/barrel. Copper is now down 7.5% on the year, presumably because China’s manufacturing business activity has lost some momentum. Bonds are trading higher as yields tick lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 2.63% and 2.85%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 6, 2018

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning. The Dow is down 104 pts and the S&P 500 is down .1%. The Nasdaq is up .14%. Utilities are down .8% and biotechs, banks and retailers are in the red. Gold miners, semiconductors and materials stocks are in the green. The VIX Index, which uses stock options to measure investor fear, is holding around 18.5. VIX March futures are at the same level. Whereas the VIX remained below 12 for most of 2017, it has been significantly higher (that is, more normal) this year. The dollar is weaker today (and down 2.7% so far this year) and commodities are mostly higher. WTI crude oil is trading down a bit to $62.30/barrel. Bonds are modestly higher this morning. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields ticked down to 2.63% and 2.86%, respectively. The trend for interest rates has been mostly higher this year, so bonds have traded lower. The popular iShares IBOXX Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) is down 4% this year; the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is down 6.5%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 19, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -38 pts; SPX -.16%). Exchange trade volume is very light as investors wait for congressional votes on the tax bill. Real estate & utilities are down the most (roughly 1%) as bond yields head higher. Tech is also weak, having lost some momentum over the past two weeks. Consumer staples and energy are trading higher. WTI crude oil is up modestly to $57.25/barrel. Bonds are selling off as yields tick higher. The 5-year Treasury yield soared to 2.21% today, the highest since April 2011. The 10-year Treasury note yield ticked up to 2.44%, the highest since March of this year. This is probably the only story that matters today (sorry Bitcoin). According to Bloomberg, an official with the European Central Bank said monetary policy discussions in Europe “are moving to the future use of interest rates rather than asset purchases to regulate the economy.” In other words, they could be reducing or removing quantitative easing some time in 2018. That immediately pushed up interest rates in Europe and is likely the proximate cause of higher US yields today.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 14, 2017

Stocks gapped up again today, but quickly fell flat (Dow +1 pt; SPX flat). The tech sector is trading higher, but telecoms, materials and healthcare are in the red. The VIX Index is trading down to 9.8. European markets are poised to close .3% lower. The dollar is a bit stronger against the Euro after the European Central Bank (ECB) said Eurozone inflation will remain low for the foreseeable future. In other words, there is no reason to rush toward reducing monetary stimulus. Commodities are trading mixed. WTI crude oil is holding steady at $57.75/barrel. Bonds prices are slightly lower today. The 5-year Treasury note yield is up toward 2.15%. The 10-year yield is back up to 2.37%. In fact, the 10-year has been trading in a very tight range of 2.32% to 2.40% for the past month. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee raised its short-term policy interest rate by .25% to a target range of 1.25% to 1.50%. The move was widely expected. And by the way, the Fed lowered its forecast for unemployment in 2018 to just 3.9%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 26, 2017

Stocks opened higher after yesterday’s rout (Dow +76 pts; SPX +.18%). Most sectors are headed higher, save real estate and healthcare. Individual stocks, not the indexes, are ruling the tape as earnings announcements come fast and furious. The VIX Index, which spiked briefly to 13 yesterday, is trading back down to 11. European markets are poised to close higher by over 1% in reaction to the European Central Bank’s policy meeting. The Euro sank vs. the dollar as well. Most commodities are lower on the day, but WTI crude oil is trading back up around $52.20/barrel. Bonds are slightly lower in price, higher in yield. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.05% and the 10-year yield is hovering around 2.43%. The 10-year yield may take a breather here, but soon could very well test the next resistance level of 2.54%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 28, 2017

he major stock market averages gapped up at the open. The Dow and SPX are currently up 134 pts & .75%, respectively. Banks, semiconductors, biotechs and transports are leading the way (all +1% or more). Utilities is the only sector in the red. The dollar is down a bit and most commodities are slightly higher. Oil prices ticked up after a positive gasoline inventory report. WTI crude oil is hovering around $44.70/barrel. Bonds are selling off again for the second consecutive day. The 5-year Treasury yield is up to 1.83% and the 10-year yield is up to 2.22%. Most of the move is reaction to recent comments from central bankers. Yesterday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the banking sector is very strong and she doesn’t expect another financial crisis in our lifetimes. Also, European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi essentially declared victory over deflation in Europe. Today, Bank of England (BOE) chief Carney said the BOE may have to start raising interest rates soon. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 8, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow +32 pts; SPX flat). Banks, semiconductors and retailers are in the green, but the more interest rate sensitive sectors (utilities, real estate) are lower. The VIX Index is down around 10. The dollar is up about .4% today, partly because the Euro is weaker after the European Central Bank policy meeting. WTI crude oil is down modestly to trade around $45.70/barrel. Bonds are selling off a bit as yields head higher. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are up to 1.77% and 2.20%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 7, 2017

Stocks opened higher but quickly turned around (Dow +10 pts; SPX +.06%). Banks and semiconductors are leading the way (+1%); biotechs & retailers are also up modestly. Energy stocks are dragging. The VIX Index is down around 10.2. Over the last couple of trading sessions, the SPX and Dow have broken out to new highs. The dollar is a bit stronger today and so most commodities are lower. WTI crude oil just slipped 3.5% to trade around $46.50/barrel after a report showing higher US oil stockpiles. This is what turned the stock market around. Gold, copper and iron ore are down today as well. Bonds are The 10-year Treasury yield is down around 2.15%, the lowest since November 10th. It looks to me like that yield is sitting right on trendline support.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 6, 2017

The major market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow +13 pts; SPX -.1%). Most sectors are seeing modest declines led by energy (-.5%) and real estate (-.5%). Industrials and Tech are slightly higher. The VIX Index is up about 3% to trade around 11.3, which is still considered very low. In fact, the VIX sank to a 2 ½ year low last week. And again, traders are watching the fear gauge closely for signs that the Trump Rally is fading. The dollar is stronger on the day but commodities are mixed (gold, copper higher; oil lower). WTI crude oil surged to nearly $54/barrel last week but is trading back down to $53.30 today. We understand OPEC states seem to be abiding by the cartel’s stated production limits. Bonds are rising in price (down in yield) this morning. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are now at 1.87% and 2.45%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.