Home Depot (HD)

THE UPWARD MARCH CONTINUES

The major stock market indexes opened higher this morning ( Dow +151 pts; SPX +.5%). Consumer discretionary is the leading sector (+1.2%) on strength in its major constituents Amazon (AMZN) & Home Depot (HD). Semiconductor stocks are also up about 1.3%. Most other sectors are participating, save utilities and real estate. Those two groups recently achieved all-time highs and so some give-back is to be expected. WTI crude oil is down a bit to trade around $58.90/barrel after yesterday’s sharp rally. OPEC decided to continue established production cuts through June. Cuts by OPEC late last year are helping to balance global demand and supply even though US producers are steadily ramping production levels. Bonds are trading lower today as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield edged back up to 2.61%. We should perhaps expect some rate volatility around the Fed announcement tomorrow.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 16, 2018

August 16, 2018

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning (Dow +365 pts; SPX +.94%). Consumer discretionary, financials, industrials and telecom sectors are all up over 1% in early trading. The VIX Index, which spiked to nearly 15 this week, sank back under 13 today. European markets will close up about .8%, whereas most of Asia was down overnight. The dollar is down slightly, giving a little room for commodities to rise. WTI crude oil is back up around $65.50/barrel. Copper is up nicely after taking a massive 20%+ beating this year. Bonds are trading roughly sideways. The 5-year Treasury yield at 2.76% hasn’t moved much in a week. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up slightly to 2.89%. The yield curve—difference between the 10-year and 2-year—is as flat as it has been this year.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 15, 2018

Stocks opened lower this morning. The Dow is currently down 243 pts and the SPX is down .8%. The Nasdaq is off 1%. All eleven major market sectors are in the red, led by real estate (-1.6%), healthcare (-1.3%), tech (-1.2%), and utilities (-1.1%). The only bright spots today are banks and small-caps. The VIX Index jumped up to 14.2 in early trading and VIX June futures are trading around 15.2. So there’s no real fear out there. The dollar is higher on better than expected economic data and most commodities are lower—even gold. WTI crude oil is down around $70.60/barrel. OPEC just reported that the global oversupply in oil has been virtually eliminated. Bonds are selling off as interest rates rise. The 5-year Treasury note yield is up around 2.91% and the 10-year is  trading at 3.07% for the first time since 2011. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 21, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher this morning (Dow +126 pts; SPX +.55%). Gold miners, banks and transports are rebounding +1%, while defensive sectors like real estate, telecom and consumer staples are down. The VIX Index is trading down around 18.5, which is good news. There’s still a chance that the market dips to re-test the correction low of 2/9, but thus far stocks are clearly in recovery mode. WTI crude oil is down modestly around $61.50/barrel. Last week, the Baker Hughes Rig Count climbed by 7 to a total of 798 active drilling rigs. That’s 201 higher than year-ago levels. US oil production has reached a new record of 10.2mil barrels per day. Bonds are slightly lower as yields march gradually higher. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are up to 2.65% and 2.90%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 16, 2017

The major stock market averages surged at the open, reversing the pattern of the prior week. The Dow is currently up 193 pts and the SPX is up .77%. Tech and telecom are the best performing sectors, up well over 1% due to positive earnings announcements by Cisco Systems and Wal-Mart. The only sectors in the red are utilities and energy. Asia was up overnight and European markets are poised  to close about .5% higher. Commodities are rebounding modestly today, but WTI crude oil is down slightly to trade around $55.20/barrel. Day-today movements in oil are largely driven by speculators and headlines, not fundamentals, and it seems like traders are selling after a pretty big run. Bonds resumed their selloff today. The 5-year Treasury yield climbed back to 2.06% and the 10-year yield ticked up to 2.35%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 2, 2017

Stocks sank at the open (Dow flat; SPX -.22%; Nasdaq -.3%). Consumer discretionary, materials and telecom sectors are down about 1% in early trading. Real estate and utilities are in the green as interest rates fall. The VIX Index is down around 10. The dollar is down a bit today (and down about 7% on the year) and commodities are up slightly. WTI crude oil is trading flat at $54.30/barrel. Bonds are trading modestly higher after President Trump announced his nominee for the Chair of the Federal Reserve. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.0% and 2.36%, respectively. Famed economist Mohamed El-Erian says the nominee, Jerome Powell, brings “continuity and experience” and he is a wise choice.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 15, 2017

The major stock market averages opened higher but quickly gave way. The Dow is currently up 9 pts and the SPX is flat. Banks, healthcare, consumer staples and utilities are in the green. But energy, real estate, telecom and consumer discretionary sectors are lower. Traders are wondering whether last week’s mini-pullback is really over yet. The VIX Index is back down under 12. European stock markets are poised to close up about .3%. The dollar is stronger today as a result of better than expected economic data (see below), and commodities are therefore a bit lower. WTI crude oil is trading lower to $47.30/barrel. Bonds are also trading lower. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are back up to 1.81% and 2.26%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 16, 2017

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning but quickly faded. The Dow is currently trading down 10 pts and the SPX is down .1%. Technology and consumer staples sectors are up modestly, but all other sectors are lower. There are a few sub-groups of stocks in the green, including semiconductors and gold miners; most retailers are down after Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) reported weak first quarter results. The VIX Index is hovering around 10.5, so no change there. The dollar is a bit weaker; Bloomberg reports the dollar has fallen back to pre-election levels. Many investors don’t believe President Trump’s pro-growth political agenda will pan out. Commodities are mixed and WTI crude oil is unchanged at $48.85/barrel. Bonds are rising in price again, falling in yield. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 1.83% and 2.31%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 23, 2017

The major stock market averages are lower in early trading. The Dow is currently flat and the SPX is down .23%. The defensive sectors are doing better (utilities, consumer staples, telecoms) but most other sectors are lower (i.e. tech, industrials, financials, materials). By the way, year-to-date the SPX is up 5.4% and the best-performing sectors are tech (+9%) and healthcare (+7%). The only two sectors in the red for the year are energy (-5.8%) and telecom (-3.7%). Today, the dollar is a bit lower and commodities are trading a bit higher. WTI crude oil is up 2% to $54.68/barrel. Bonds have been moving higher for the last week, with yields headed lower. The 5-year Treasury yield is back down to 1.87% and the 10-year yield is trading at 2.39%. The 2-year Treasury yield isn’t spiking either, and that suggests traders aren’t convinced the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in March. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 25, 2016

Stocks fell at the open this morning (Dow -57 pts; SPX -.37%). Nearly all major market sectors are lower, save utilities and consumer staples. But most of the movement today is in individual stocks following earnings announcements. WTI crude is down slightly to $50/barrel. Baker Hughes says US land-based drilling activity is increasing. The dollar is flat and other commodities are mixed. Copper is up over 2% as China’s stock market hit a 9-month high. China GDP is up 6.7% for three straight quarter encouraging investors to believe China has stabilized. Bonds are mostly unchanged on the day. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.