Hurricane Harvey

September 28, 2017

Stocks gapped down at the open but quickly recovered. The Dow is currently up 22 pts and the SPX is flat. Transports, semiconductors, pharma and gold miners are trading higher, but banks and retailers are giving back some of their recent gains. By the way, the SPX is poised to achieve its eight consecutive quarterly gain. European markets are up slightly in today’s session after a survey of economic confidence gave investors a positive surprise. Most of Asia was higher overnight. The dollar is weaker today and WTI crude oil is up again to trade around $52.30/barrel. Bonds continue to sell off as yields march higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 1.92% and in the near term it could move up to test resistance at 1.96%. The 10-year Treasury yield is up around 2.33% and will likely test 2.40% in the near future. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 26, 2017

The major stock market averages opened slightly higher this morning (Dow +26 pts; SPX flat). Gains are led by retailers and the transports. The tech sector is rebounding from a rough week. Gold miners and biotechs are trading lower. WTI crude oil is trading down .9% to $51.76/barrel, and that’s taking energy stocks down a bit. European markets are poised to close slightly higher today, and are up roughly 20% so far this year. Asia was mixed overnight but, importantly, isn’t showing any signs of investor panic due to saber rattling in North Korea. Bonds are trading slightly lower today as interest rates throughout the economy tick upward. The 2-year Treasury bill yield is up to 1.44% and the 5-year yield is trading at 1.85%. The 10-year Treasury yield, which track longer-term inflation expectations, is up around 2.23%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 8, 2017

The major stock market averages opened mixed today as Hurricane Irma—downgraded to category 4—approaches the US. The Dow is up 30 points and the S&P 500 is flat. The head of FEMA says the storm is likely to “devastate the United States in either Florida or some of the Southeastern states.” At the moment, It is on track to hit Florida by Saturday. Energy and telecom sectors are down over 1% in early trading. Strangely enough, banks are up about 1%. Even more surprising, insurance stocks are up nicely. The VIX Index is up around 12 and VIX September futures are trading around 13. No panic yet. Commodities are mostly lower on the day. WTI crude oil is down 1.7% to $48.30/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.65% and 2.07%, respectively. The 10-year, of course, reflects inflation expectations, which have declined this year. Famed economist Mohamed El-Erian says, “we don’t understand very well why inflation is low.” It should be higher given the low level of unemployment. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.