Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)

NOTHING TO SEE HERE, HAVE A NICE WEEKEND

Stocks dropped at the open but quickly recovered after a positive consumer sentiment report. The Dow is currently flat and the SPX is down .28%. Utilities and healthcare sectors are up modestly. Most retailers are catching a bid as well. On the other hand, semiconductors, energy and industrials are in the red. European markets closed down about .4% and China’s markets dived more than 2% last night. Emerging markets funds have really underperformed this month on rising trade tensions. Commodities are mostly lower today. WTI crude oil is flat at about $62.90/barrel. Remember, oil is reacting to Iran’s terrorism, not to the US-China trade dispute. Bonds aren’t moving much, except at the long end. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.39%. Bond traders are watching to see if the 10-year can hold above near-term support at 2.37%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

FADING THE TRADE DEAL

FADING THE TRADE DEAL

Stocks gapped up at the open, only to quickly fade. The Dow is currently down 236 points, and the SPX is down 1.1%. All eleven major market sectors are lower, led by healthcare (-1.8%) and tech (-1.4%). As some type of US-China trade deal looks more likely—see below—traders are selling the news. European markets closed mixed but Asian markets rallied overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is up over 20% so far this year. The US dollar is a bit stronger today, and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil rallied back to $56.50/barrel, pretty close to the 2019 high. In fact, most commodity prices are higher this year after suffering declines late last year. Recently, President Trump has said he believes oil prices are too high and the dollar is too strong. I’m not sure why the market is reacting to these remarks, but it does feed day-to-day volatility. Bonds are trading a bit higher as yields tick lower this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.73%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

SOFT ECONOMIC DATA IN FOCUS

SOFT ECONOMIC DATA IN FOCUS

Stocks opened lower today but are clawing back (Dow -63 pts; SPX -.16%). The energy sector is leading to the downside (-1.6%), along with biotechs (-1.4%). Defensives—utilities, consumer staples—are faring better. The VIX Index, down under 15, is suggesting low volatility over the next 30 days, despite the US-China trade deadline in March. The dollar is a bit stronger today and commodities are trading mostly lower. WTI crude oil is down around $56.80/barrel. Copper and iron ore are also in the red. The flavor of the day is clearly risk-off. However, the bond market is down as well. Long-term Treasury bonds, which usually trade inverse to stocks, are down nearly 1% today. The 10-year Treasury note yield shot up to 2.69%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 21, 2018

November 21, 2018

Stocks jumped up at the open this morning (Dow pts; SPX %). The SPX is now retesting its 10/29 correction low. I’d much rather see the index fall at the open and then climb into the close. At the moment, energy stocks are up over 2% on higher oil prices. Consumer discretionary, materials, communications, tech, financials, and industrials are all up over 1%. Only utilities and healthcare sectors are in the red. European markets experienced their own relief rally, with most indexes closing up over 1%. WTI crude oil spiked nearly 4% this morning, proving that day-to-day moves in this commodity represent market manipulation by traders more than they represent changes in supply and demand. By the way, oil fell 30% from 10/3 through 11/20. Bonds are trading lower today as yields rise. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up around 2.91% and the 10-year yield is back up to 3.08%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 20, 2018

he major stock market averages gapped up again at the open. The Dow is currently up 240 pts and the SPX is up .68%. Ten of eleven sectors are in the green, led by tech (+1%), materials (+1%) and consumer staples (+1%). Only energy is stalling. The VIX Index just fell back under 12 despite the fact that we’ve had no good news on the trade war front. European stock markets are poised to close up nearly 1%. Asia was mixed overnight. The dollar is falling against a basket of foreign currencies and that’s allowing emerging markets equities to continue yesterday’s rally. Commodities are mixed today. WTI crude oil is unchanged at $70.95/barrel. Copper and gold are also flat on the session. Bonds are mixed after a 3-week selloff. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.95% today. The 10-year yield is unchanged at 3.06%. Junk bonds have been performing better than Treasuries or investment grade corporates all year, and today is no exception.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 25, 2018

July 25, 2018

Stocks opened mixed (Dow -75 pts; SPX +.17%). This is essentially the mirror image of yesterday’s trade. Utilities, real estate and consumer staples are in the green, whereas industrials, financials and consumer discretionary sectors are trading lower. It’s just more of the same back-and-forth without a discernible trend. Whereas European markets were up nicely yesterday, they’re poised to close down today. Bloomberg’s Macro Man column calls it “unremarkably quiet” as a result of “global confusion.” Anyway, commodities are trading a bit higher today (gold, copper, oil). WTI crude oil is trading flat at $68.60/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged. The 5-year Treasury yield, after a brief run higher last week, is sitting at 2.81% and the 10-year yield dipped to 2.94%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 19, 2018

Stocks gapped down at the open (Dow -86 pts; SPX -.29%). Utilities and real estate are rebounding, but most everything else is down in early trading. European markets are about to close down .4% and most of Asia was down overnight. China’s market is still down 20% on the year. WTI crude oil is trading up 1% to $69.50/barrel. Bonds are trading nearly flat yet again, and this month-long absence in yield volatility is not normal. That fact has some technical analysts calling for an upside breakout in yields sometime soon.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 19, 2018

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -52 pts; SPX -.5%). The consumer staples sector is absolutely tanking, down 3%. Tech, materials and real estate are also down over 1%. The standout today is the financial sector, up 1% on rising interest rates. WTI crude oil is trading up yet again, now eclipsing $69/barrel for the first time since Nov. 2014. The move is partly contrived: Reuters is reporting Saudi officials want to push oil prices back up to $100/barrel. It is not clear, obviously, how supply-demand dynamics would support that. But if Bonds are trading lower as yields resume their march higher. In a somewhat surprising move, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 2.91% this morning, a 2-month high.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 22, 2018

As with the last two days, stocks opened higher (Dow +303 pts; SPX +.95%). If the two-day trend holds, they’ll give way late in the session. Interest rates ticked lower this morning so we’re seeing a rebound (1%+) in utilities, real estate and telecom sectors. Cyclicals are also joining the party (energy +2%, industrials +1.3%, materials 1.3%). Even the banks are up slightly. The VIX Index is hovering around 18.7 and will probably continue to fade after the recent spike. WTI crude oil is up around $62/barrel. Oil, by the way, is up about 6% over the last 3 months. Bonds are rising in price as yields come in a bit. The 5-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.65% and the 10-year is trading around 2.91%. The 10-year is very close to 3%, which could be a key psychological level. Long-time floor trader Art Cashin says, “the assumption [among traders] is once they do it, all hell will break loose [in the stock market].” So we could see some more stock volatility in the near-term depending on how quickly rates move higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 19, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning due to “anxiety” according to Bloomberg. The Dow is currently down 38 pts and the SPX is down .17%. The Nasdaq is faring worse, down .6%. This is a clear risk-off day with utilities and telecoms in the green but most everything else in the red. The VIX Index is trading up toward 10.5 and VIX November futures are up around 11.8. The dollar is a trading a bit lower as well. WTI crude oil fell 1.3% to trade around $51.40/barrel. Not surprisingly, bonds are rising in price as yields fall. The 5-year Treasury yield edged down to 1.96% after testing 2% yesterday. And by the way, 2% was a 7-month high. The 10-year Treasury yield backtracked to 2.31%. But make no mistake, rates are rising. Famed technical analyst Louise Yamada says the recent upward move in shorter term interest rates suggests they’re “on their way for a reversal from the 36-year declining interest rate cycle, to a new rising interest rate cycle.” 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 17, 2017

The Dow (-73 pts) and S&P 500 (-.7%) opened lower today after some disappointing earnings announcements and economic reports. Semiconductors (-1.1%), transports (-1%), banks (-.8%) and retailers (-.7%) are faring the worst. All eleven sectors are in the red. European markets are poised to close down about .5% and most of Asia was down overnight. The dollar is slightly stronger today and most commodities are slightly weaker. The exceptions are gold (now up 11% on the year) and oil (trading around $47.05/barrel). The bond market is mostly unchanged. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.78% and 2.20%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 22, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning, led by healthcare. The Dow is up 29 pts and the SPX is up .2%. The Nasdaq Biotech Index is surging 1.9% at the moment. Remember, biotechs severely under-performed the overall stock market last year and until a week ago the group was about even with the S&P 500 for 2017. So over the last few trading sessions we’ve seen significant fund flows into this area. On the other hand, both financials and energy are lagging today. The VIX Index is down around 10.4, and has been trading around this level for the past two months. Most commodities are lower today (and year-to-date). WTI crude oil is trading a bit higher this morning, around $42.80/barrel. Stocks will continue to be very sensitive to oil prices, which have fallen back to levels not seen since last August. Just about every Wall Street trader is trying to guess at the bottom for crude. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.76% and the 10-year Treasury is languishing around 2.15%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 21, 2017

Stocks are lower in early trading this morning (Dow -168 pts; SPX -.9%). This is the worst trading day for the Dow since October 2016. Financials (-2%) and industrials (-1.2%) are taking the brunt of the punishment. Biotechs, semiconductors and regional banks are down 2% or more in early trading. Utilities and real estate are the only sectors in the green. The VIX Index is trading up to 12. VIX April futures are up around 13. The dollar and commodities are both trading lower. WTI crude oil is down 1% to $47.60/barrel. The dollar, by the way, is at its lowest point so far this year. Not surprisingly, gold is up a bit today. Bonds are trading higher in price, lower in yield. The 5-year Treasury yield, after breaking out to new multi-year highs a week ago, is back down around 1.97%. The 10-year yield is trading down to 2.44%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 17, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow -11 pts; SPX flat). Some key groups are lower in early trading, including banks, transports, biotechs, and retailers. On the other hand, utilities, energy, telecom and materials sectors are in the green. The VIX Index is up around 11.3 (considered very low). VIX April futures are trading at 13.2, and have been trending lower this month. Commodities are mostly higher on the day. Oil is flat around $48.76/barrel. Over the past month oil prices have fallen about 8%. Bonds are mostly higher in early trading. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields ticked down to 2.01% and 2.50%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 17, 2017

Stocks gapped down at the open, giving back a little of this week’s rally. The Dow and SPX are currently down 70 pts & .29%, respectively. Consumer staples is the only major market sector in the green at the moment. Gold miners, banks, oil companies and telecom carriers are down the most. Most of the rest of the world is in sync: Europe is poised to close down .5% to .8% and Asia was down roughly .5% overnight. The VIX Index is up, trading near 12—nothing to worry about yet. Volatility has been very low and that is making short -term traders nervous. Bonds are trading higher in price, down in yield. That’s to be expected when stocks are lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are down to 1.91% and 2.42%, respectively. In addition, the 2-year Treasury yield doesn’t appear to be building in a March rate hike from the Federal Reserve. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 18, 2016

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -36 pts; SPX -.25%). The Nasdaq briefly touched an all-time high. The SPX is within spitting distance of its all-time high (2193). The healthcare sector is down nearly 1% in early trading. Gold miners are down 2%. Transports, banks and semiconductors are up a bit. The dollar is still strengthening (+2% YTD) and commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is down modestly to trade around $45/barrel. Bonds continue to sell off. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are up to 1.78% and 2.34%, respectively. Keep in mind the 10-year yield is up 100 basis points since bottoming in July. Rates are back up to November 2015 levels. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 22, 2016

Stocks opened sharply higher this morning (Dow +112 pts; SPX +.5%). All eleven major market sectors are higher in early trading. Gold miners, transports, REITs, mid-caps and emerging markets stocks are up over 1%. Bloomberg is calling this a “Fed-Inspired Rally” because the FOMC yet again decided not to raise short-term interest rates. So the dollar is a bit weaker and commodities are higher. WTI crude oil is up to $46/barrel and copper is up 1.3% on the day. European markets are poised to close up 1-2% and Asia was higher overnight. Bonds are higher as yields fall today. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 1.16% and 1.62%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 18, 2016

The S&P 500 Index and Dow Industrial Average opened lower this morning but quickly turned around. The energy sector is leading the charge, up about 1.2% in early trading. One big reason why: WTI crude oil jumped 2% to $47.80/barrel and Brent crude went over $50/barrel. European markets are poised to close in the green as well. The dollar is weaker on the day (and has been falling for a month now). That’s giving some life to commodities and in fact the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up nearly 10% year-to-date. Copper, which has been smacked around for 5 years now, is actually up modestly in 2016. I suppose that says something about China’s economic growth. Bonds are mixed today. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked down to 1.13% and the 10-year is trading at 11.56%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 21, 2016

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -17 pts; SPX flat). Energy, healthcare and consumer discretion are higher but just about every other sector is modestly lower. The VIX has fallen flat around 1 12, indicating low expected volatility over the next 30 days. The dollar is flat and commodities are higher on the day.  WTI crude oil is down a bit to $45.40/barrel. Bonds are lower again this morning with yields moving higher. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are up to 1.14% and 1.60%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 19, 2016

The major market averages opened lower following the release of the Fed minutes yesterday. The Dow and SPX are currently down 176 pts & .93%, respectively. Consumer staples and utilities, which sold off yesterday, are in the green. Banks, on the other hand, are lower in early trading. Go figure. This goes exactly opposite of yesterday’s initial reaction following news that the Fed is considering a June interest rate hike (see below). The dollar is flat today (at a 6-week high though) and commodities are lower. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 1.7% and WTI crude oil is down 2% to $47/barrel. Interestingly, gold is lower as well. Yesterday afternoon bond yields spiked. The 2-year Treasury yield moved up to .89% (2-month high) and is currently trading at .88%. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 1.37% and 1.84%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.