Jan Hatzius

April 6, 2018

tocks gapped down this morning on trade war tensions (not the jobs report). The Dow is currently down 364 pts and the SPX is down 1.17%. The defensive sectors—utilities, consumer staples, real estate—are not surprisingly faring better than cyclicals, but just about everything is in the red. The VIX Index is up a bit to trade just under 20. VIX April futures are around the same level. So the options market doesn’t seem to expect a full-blown trade war. European stock markets are poised to close slightly lower and Asia was mixed overnight. The dollar and most commodities are down a bit today. WTI crude oil is trading down around $62.70/barrel, continuing in the $59-$66 range. Gold is up about .4% this morning (and 2% on the year). Bonds are trading higher as yields dip. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.6% and 2.79%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 6, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning, rebounding from yesterday’s dip. The Dow is currently up 66 pts and the SPX is up .16%. Energy producers, transports, and retailers are leading the charge. The VIX Index is up a bit to trade around 12.5 (from 10 a week ago), but with Hurricane Irma and North Korea tensions, you’d think it would be higher. The dollar is weaker today, and off nearly 10% year-to-date. The dollar has been a quiet support to US multi-national companies selling goods abroad. Commodities are mostly higher on the day, with WTI crude oil up around $49.20/barrel. Oil prices have risen from about $42/barrel near the end of June but many energy stocks haven’t really kept pace. They may begin to catch-up. The bond market has strengthened over the past two months as yields have fallen. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.65% and 2.07%, respectively. Speaking of yields, CNBC interviewed Mark Grant of Hilltop Securities yesterday. He said global “central banks now have $19 trillion in assets and they’re adding $300 billion per month. They keep growing it, and that’s driving equity prices up, and bond yields down.” Unless central banks change their policy actions, the trend will continue. Of course, we know that the US Federal Reserve would like to tighten monetary policy, but low inflation & interest rates are making that difficult. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 10, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning, but quickly faded. The Dow is up 36 pts and the SPX is up .27%. Semiconductors (+1%) and gold miners (+.5) are up the most in early trading. Banks, biotechs and retailers are essentially flat, and energy stocks continue to slide. The VIX Index continues to languish under 12. The dollar is lower today and commodities are mixed. Gold is flat, copper is up .5% and WTI crude oil is down a bit to trade under $49/barrel. Bonds sold off immediately in response to the jobs report (see below), but since then have turned around. The 5-year Treasury yield is actually down a basis point to 2.11%. Ditto for the 10-year Treasury yield at 2.59%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 2, 2016

Stocks opened modestly higher (Dow -10 pts; SPX +.17%%; Nasdaq +.17%). Today is sort of the mirror image of yesterday’s session. Interest rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate are up big while the cyclical sectors like financials and consumer discretion are lagging. The VIX Index is down a bit to 14. And bonds are up in price today. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields ticked down to 1.83% and 2.39%, respectively. WTI crude oil, on the other hand, continues to drive higher, now trading around $51.20/barrel. Commodity traders are really taking this OPEC production deal seriously…for now.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 7, 2016

Stocks opened modestly lower (Dow -26 pts; SPX -.2%). Utilities, financials and energy sectors are up very slightly but everything else is lower. WTI crude oil is trading slightly lower, near $50.20/barrel. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up .5% this morning on gains in copper, gold. Bonds are mostly unchanged. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.28% and 1.75%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 19, 2016

The major market averages opened lower following the release of the Fed minutes yesterday. The Dow and SPX are currently down 176 pts & .93%, respectively. Consumer staples and utilities, which sold off yesterday, are in the green. Banks, on the other hand, are lower in early trading. Go figure. This goes exactly opposite of yesterday’s initial reaction following news that the Fed is considering a June interest rate hike (see below). The dollar is flat today (at a 6-week high though) and commodities are lower. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 1.7% and WTI crude oil is down 2% to $47/barrel. Interestingly, gold is lower as well. Yesterday afternoon bond yields spiked. The 2-year Treasury yield moved up to .89% (2-month high) and is currently trading at .88%. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 1.37% and 1.84%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.