Jim Cramer

NOTHING TO SEE HERE, HAVE A NICE WEEKEND

Stocks dropped at the open but quickly recovered after a positive consumer sentiment report. The Dow is currently flat and the SPX is down .28%. Utilities and healthcare sectors are up modestly. Most retailers are catching a bid as well. On the other hand, semiconductors, energy and industrials are in the red. European markets closed down about .4% and China’s markets dived more than 2% last night. Emerging markets funds have really underperformed this month on rising trade tensions. Commodities are mostly lower today. WTI crude oil is flat at about $62.90/barrel. Remember, oil is reacting to Iran’s terrorism, not to the US-China trade dispute. Bonds aren’t moving much, except at the long end. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.39%. Bond traders are watching to see if the 10-year can hold above near-term support at 2.37%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

WAITING FOR THE NEXT CATALYST

WAITING FOR THE NEXT CATALYST

The major US stock market averages opened slightly lower again this morning (Dow -50 pts; SPX -.4%). We’re in a holding pattern with very little news. Healthcare and energy sectors are faring the worst, down more than 1%. Banks and transports are treading water. European markets are poised to close nearly flat, but China’s stock market continues to power ahead on expectations for a trade deal. In fact, CNBC reports President Trump is “pushing hard” to ink a deal in order to improve his chances of re-election. Commodities are slipping today as the dollar strengthens. WTI crude oil dipped slightly to $56.35/barrel. Bonds are trading a bit higher today as yields tick lower. Long term Treasury bonds are faring the best, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) up about .4%. The 10-year Treasury yield, which finally broke out of its tight range last week, is fading back toward 2.69%. That is to be expected—Treasuries should rise when the stock market falls.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

RISING INFLATION SAYS RECESSION NOT IMMINENT

RISING INFLATION SAYS RECESSION NOT IMMINENT

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning, but quickly faded. The Dow is currently up 70 pts and the S&P 500 (SPX) is up .2%. Gains are broad-based, led by energy, semiconductors and transports. Defensive sectors like utilities aren’t really participating. The VIX Index has stabilized below 16 over the last week. Foreign stock markets are acting better—especially China—and that suggests some expectation for resolution of trade concerns. Traders are excited about the fact that the SPX closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time in over two months. The index is now only about 6.5% below its all-time high reached 13 months ago. So risk assets are acting better this year. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is up 4.5% so far in 2019. WTI crude oil is back up over $54/barrel. Iron ore and copper are also climbing. I’ll point out that while falling commodity prices were seen as a very scary sign of falling economic growth in 2018, very few are seeing the commodity recovery as a sign global economic improvement.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 18, 2018

December 18, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow 243 pts; SPX .5%) in an attempt to recover from yesterday’s rout. A number of market sectors are up about 1%: industrials, real estate, materials, communications services and consumer discretionary. Energy stocks are down following oil prices. WTI crude oil fell to a 15-month low after a report that global oil production is rising. European stock markets closed down about .7% and Asian markets were down overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is down 22% so far this year in local currency terms (or about 26% in dollar terms). Commodities are mixed in early trading. As mentioned, WTI crude oil is down around $47/barrel (down 36% since early October. Consensus Wall Street opinion is that global oil demand is just fine, but supply is temporarily too high. As I’ve mentioned before, there is a lot of room for traders and governments to manipulate oil prices. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Treasury bonds are rising but junk bonds are falling in price. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are back down to 2.67% and 2.83%. Remember last summer when traders were freaking out over rising interest rates? They feared higher mortgage & auto loan rates and worried incessantly that the Federal Reserve would have to keep hiking rates to keep pace. Well, those concerns seem in the distant past now. We’re all wondering what the bond market’s massive volatility is trying to tell us.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 3, 2018

December 3, 2018

Stocks surged at the open following a positive outcome at the G-20 meeting in Argentina over the weekend. The Dow is currently up 228 pts and the SPX is up .87%. Cyclical sectors (consumer discretionary, energy, industrials, tech, materials) are up over 1% in early trading. On the other hand, consumer staples and real estate sectors are in the red. European stock markets closed up about 1% and Asian markets were up 1-3% overnight. The dollar is weaker after the G-20 on reduced trade war tensions, and that’s giving some breathing room to commodities. WTI crude oil is up 3% to trade around $52.50/barrel. Despite the lower dollar, bonds are roughly flat on the day. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.83% and 2.99%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 26, 2018

November 26, 2018

The major stock market averages jumped at the open (Dow +300 pts; SPX +1.25%). In an 180-degree turn from last week’s action, the market’s tenor is clearly risk-on today. Utilities, real estate and consumer staples are in the red, whereas financials and consumer discretionary sectors are all up over 2%. The VIX Index fell back under 20. European stock markets are poised to close about 1% higher. And China is one of the only markets to have declined overnight. WTI crude oil is trading up 2.5% to $51.70/barrel. Bonds are mixed in today’s session. Treasury yields ticked up, causing modest price declines. But junk bonds are moving slightly higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 13, 2018

August 13, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning but quickly faded on Turkey fears. The Dow and SPX are currently down 100 pts & .23%, respectively. Retailers, semiconductors and some FAANG stocks are clinging to small gains, but most everything else is in the red. The VIX Index  is trading up around 14, the highest in two weeks but still considered very low. Exchange trade volume is 11% below normal levels for this time of year, according to Bloomberg. European markets are down .5% and most of Asia was down more than 1% last night. The dollar appreciated about 1.2% over the last week as emerging markets currencies are losing ground. Not surprisingly, commodities are falling in value. WTI crude oil is down 1% to trade around $66.60/barrel. Remember, oil was over $70/barrel a month ago. Bonds are slightly lower in today’s trade. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.74% and the 10-year is trading at 2.87%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 23, 2018

Stocks opened modestly higher this morning (Dow +15 pts; SPX +.25%). There’s no real pattern among the eleven market sectors. Tech is up .7% and consumer discretionary is up .5%. But the rest of the cyclicals (energy, financials, materials) are down. And the most interest rate sensitive sectors—utilities, real estate—are up over 1% in early trading. The VIX Index is up around 11.4. It has been over 11 for about a week now. But February VIX futures aren’t much higher at 11.9. So expected volatility is still pretty low. The dollar is weaker this morning and commodities are mostly higher. WTI crude oil up around $64.58/barrel. Bonds yields are ticking lower after a huge run-up since September. The 5-year and 10-year US Treasury note yields are trading at 2.42% and 2.62%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 22, 2018

tocks opened modestly higher this morning (Dow -18 pts; SPX +.2%; Nasdaq +.4%). Utilities and telecom are up around 1%, reversing the recent trend. Energy stocks are also up close 1% as oil heads higher. Industrials and materials, on the other hand, are in the red. The VIX Index is hovering around 11.2 after recently spiking above 12. VIX February futures are trading at 11.8. The dollar is weaker today—perhaps due to the limited government shutdown—and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is up around $64/barrel. Bonds are slightly higher in price, lower in yield. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 2.43% and 2.63%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 19, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -38 pts; SPX -.16%). Exchange trade volume is very light as investors wait for congressional votes on the tax bill. Real estate & utilities are down the most (roughly 1%) as bond yields head higher. Tech is also weak, having lost some momentum over the past two weeks. Consumer staples and energy are trading higher. WTI crude oil is up modestly to $57.25/barrel. Bonds are selling off as yields tick higher. The 5-year Treasury yield soared to 2.21% today, the highest since April 2011. The 10-year Treasury note yield ticked up to 2.44%, the highest since March of this year. This is probably the only story that matters today (sorry Bitcoin). According to Bloomberg, an official with the European Central Bank said monetary policy discussions in Europe “are moving to the future use of interest rates rather than asset purchases to regulate the economy.” In other words, they could be reducing or removing quantitative easing some time in 2018. That immediately pushed up interest rates in Europe and is likely the proximate cause of higher US yields today.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 7, 2017

Stocks opened modestly higher today (Dow +74 pts; SPX +.3%). Cyclicals are leading the way; semiconductors, biotechs and transports are up about 1%. Utilities and consumer staples are losing ground. European markets will close about .2% higher and Asia was mostly higher overnight. The VIX Index is back down around 10.5 and VIX January futures are back down to 12.8. Commodities are mostly lower again today. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has lost 2.2% so far this month. WTI crude oil is bouncing back toward $56.40/barrel. Bonds prices are slightly higher today, lower in yield. The 5-year Treasury yield is at 2.12% and the 10-year is at 2.33%. The yield curve is flattening again. Over the course of 2017 the difference between the 2-year and 10-year yields has shrunk to .52% from 1.25%. Most institutional investors believe that the yield curve will probably invert—that is, short-term yields will exceed long-term yields—in the second half of 2018.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 1, 2017

The major stock market averages opened down after the Dow hit 24,000 for the first time yesterday. At the moment, the Dow is down 133 pts and the SPX is down .6%. The energy sector shot up over .8% in early trading. Pharmaceutical stocks are also up over .6%. On the other hand, most everything else is in the red. Semiconductors are down 2% and transports are down 1%. VIX Index futures, which attempt to guess at market volatility over the next couple of months, are up around 11.7. That’s still very low. The dollar is a bit stronger today but commodities are up a lot. Bloomberg’s Commodity Index is up over 1% today. WTI crude oil, which has been in an up-trend since June, is now at $58.70/barrel. Apparently, OPEC decided to extend is self-imposed production cuts through the end of 2018. On one hand, OPEC is not to be trusted. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia really needs to boost oil prices in front of its IPO of Aramco next year. Bonds are modestly higher in price today. The 5-year Treasury yield is at 2.11% and the 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 2.40%.   


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 16, 2017

The major stock market averages surged at the open, reversing the pattern of the prior week. The Dow is currently up 193 pts and the SPX is up .77%. Tech and telecom are the best performing sectors, up well over 1% due to positive earnings announcements by Cisco Systems and Wal-Mart. The only sectors in the red are utilities and energy. Asia was up overnight and European markets are poised  to close about .5% higher. Commodities are rebounding modestly today, but WTI crude oil is down slightly to trade around $55.20/barrel. Day-today movements in oil are largely driven by speculators and headlines, not fundamentals, and it seems like traders are selling after a pretty big run. Bonds resumed their selloff today. The 5-year Treasury yield climbed back to 2.06% and the 10-year yield ticked up to 2.35%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 2, 2017

Stocks sank at the open (Dow flat; SPX -.22%; Nasdaq -.3%). Consumer discretionary, materials and telecom sectors are down about 1% in early trading. Real estate and utilities are in the green as interest rates fall. The VIX Index is down around 10. The dollar is down a bit today (and down about 7% on the year) and commodities are up slightly. WTI crude oil is trading flat at $54.30/barrel. Bonds are trading modestly higher after President Trump announced his nominee for the Chair of the Federal Reserve. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.0% and 2.36%, respectively. Famed economist Mohamed El-Erian says the nominee, Jerome Powell, brings “continuity and experience” and he is a wise choice.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 4, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow +20 pts; SPX flat). Gold miners, biotechs and consumer staples stocks are modestly higher. In addition, interest rate sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities are rebounding a bit. On the other hand, technology, banks and industrials are modestly lower. WTI crude oil is flat on the day around $50.40/barrel. Bonds are slightly lower as yield tick higher. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.93% and 2.34%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 18, 2017

Stocks opened lower again today (Dow -40 pts; SPX -.3%). Gold miners and utilities are modestly higher, but most everything else is in the red. Real estate and telecom sectors are down .9%. Yesterday, the VIX Index spiked to 15.5 but today is back down under 15. VIX September futures are also around 15. CNBC points out that we’re not yet seeing a large selloff on big volume and that could be a sign of stability. In fact, a lot of professional investors are on vacation and exchange volume is very light. The dollar is weaker and commodities are mixed today. WTI crude oil is trading slightly lower to $46.95/barrel. Bonds are trading mostly higher in price, lower in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.18%. And remember, at the beginning of the year the 10-year yield was near 2.5%. Since then, falling inflation expectations have resulted in lower yields. Alan Blinder, former Federal Reserve official, characterizes the dip in inflation this year as “mysterious.” Six months ago we had stable inflation, and now we’re seeing falling inflation. “What in the world happened?” He implied our methods for measuring economic activity may be flawed. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 14, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning after falling nearly 1.5% last week. The Dow is up 155 points and the S&P 500 is up 1%. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson calmed tensions with North Korea by indicating the US would pursue a diplomatic solution. All eleven major market sectors are in the green. The real estate sector is up 1.7%, financials are up 1.5% and the tech sector is up 1.4%. The VIX index is back down under 13; most international markets are trading higher. WTI crude oil is down modestly to trade around $48.20/barrel. Bonds are trading a little lower as yields inch higher. The 10 year treasury yield is hovering around 2.21%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 11, 2017

Stocks opened lower. The Dow is currently down 25 pts and the SPX is down -.2%. Semiconductors and energy are moving higher, along with biotechs. On the other hand, gold miners, retailers, telecoms and REITs are lower in early trading. The VIX Index is down under 11 today and VIX August futures are trading around 12.6. European markets are poised to close slightly lower today although most of Asia was higher overnight. WTI crude oil is trading up toward $44.73. Treasury bonds are trading modestly lower today, and I actually saw a headline proclaiming that investors are spooked by higher rates. That’s sounds ridiculous when you consider that the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to a mere 2.38%. That can only be considered high if your chart only goes back 4 weeks. The bears can’t have their cake and eat it too. In other words, you can’t bemoan low rates as a consequence of slow economic growth and weak inflation expectations, but then declare that the market is afraid of rebounding rates as economic data begin to look a little better.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 26, 2017

The major stock market averages climbed briefly at the open, but quickly turned around. The Dow is up 40 pts, the SPX is up .2% and the Nasdaq is flat. “Waffling” has become a consistent pattern throughout June, according to CNBC’s Jim Cramer. “The market can’t make up its mind.” In addition, we’re seeing huge dispersion of returns from sector to sector, and from stock to stock.  For example, healthcare is screaming higher (+6%) this month, while energy has sagged .5%. And even within the energy sector, Chevron (CVX) is up 1.3% this month but Schlumberger (SLB) is down 5%. Mr. Cramer rightly points out that “nothing is trading in unison.” The VIX Index continues to trade near record lows (below 10 today), but while the SPX looks like it is simply treading water, there is a lot going on under the hood. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 22, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning, led by healthcare. The Dow is up 29 pts and the SPX is up .2%. The Nasdaq Biotech Index is surging 1.9% at the moment. Remember, biotechs severely under-performed the overall stock market last year and until a week ago the group was about even with the S&P 500 for 2017. So over the last few trading sessions we’ve seen significant fund flows into this area. On the other hand, both financials and energy are lagging today. The VIX Index is down around 10.4, and has been trading around this level for the past two months. Most commodities are lower today (and year-to-date). WTI crude oil is trading a bit higher this morning, around $42.80/barrel. Stocks will continue to be very sensitive to oil prices, which have fallen back to levels not seen since last August. Just about every Wall Street trader is trying to guess at the bottom for crude. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.76% and the 10-year Treasury is languishing around 2.15%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.