Leon Cooperman

TRADE WAR JITTERS CONTINUE

Stocks headed lower again this morning on (what else?) trade war headlines. The Dow is currently down 350 pts and the SPX is down .7%. All eleven major market sectors are lower, led by tech (-1.2%) and materials (-1.3%). The VIX Index spiked to nearly 22, suggesting traders are getting nervous. European markets closed down by nearly 2% and Asian markets were down nearly that much overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index was down 1.5% last night and has fallen almost 13% since April 19th. Commodities are down today, except for gold. WTI crude oil is down 1% to trade around $61.50/barrel. Bonds moved higher as the 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 2.44%. Junk bonds, however, are down about .4%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TRADE DEAL CAUTION

TRADE DEAL CAUTION

The major stock market averages opened lower this morning, but quickly pared losses. At the moment, the Dow is down 92 pts and the SPX is down .17%. Banks and biotechs are up .6% to 1.4% in early trading. In addition, energy exploration stocks are up after EOG Resources (EOG) reported quarterly results. Oil prices are up at 3-month highs following a lower than expected crude inventory report. WTI crude oil is back up over $57/barrel. Most other commodities are up as well; the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 6.5% so far this year. Is it possible that this index is predicting a rebound in global economic growth later this year? Bonds are falling in price, rising in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.68% this morning. Nothing to see here.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 6, 2018

Stocks opened higher again this morning (Dow +224 pts; SPX +.4%). Financials are rebounding over 1.5% as interest rates head higher. So not surprisingly, the utilities sector is down over 1.5%. Emerging markets funds are up 1% today and look to be recovering a bit from a beating in recent weeks. The dollar, which has been falling over the last week or so, is giving overseas stocks some breathing room. The VIX Index continues to slide, now trading under 12, suggesting little fear among investors. Commodities are mixed, with WTI crude oil down another 1% to trade around $64.80/barrel. Recall that oil was over $70 a couple of weeks ago. Bonds are selling off as yields tick up. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up to 2.81% and 2.97%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 8, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +76 pts; SPX +.4%). Most market sectors are in the green, led by healthcare and energy. The only sectors retreating are utilities and consumer staples. The VIX Index is down to 9.7 and VIX January futures are trading down around 12.4. The dollar is stronger on the day due to some strong economic data. Commodities are also higher. WTI crude oil is back up to $57.45/barrel. Bonds are little changed but the yield curve steepened just a bit. The 5-year Treasury yield is fat at 2.14% and the 10-year is up around 2.37%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 8, 2017

Stocks opened lower but quickly turned around (Dow +41 pts; SPX +.28%). Banks, semiconductors, retailers and energy producers are leading the charge, whereas biotechs, gold miners and REITs are lower. European markets closed higher by about a quarter of a percent. Most of Asia has traded higher over the last couple of days despite some saber rattling by North Korea. The VIX isn’t showing any signs of panic either. Commodities are mostly higher today, but WTI crude oil is down around $48.30/barrel. Typically, negative geopolitical events result in higher oil prices, but we haven’t seen it yet. Bonds are trading modestly lower this morning. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.84% and 2.29%, respectively. When asked about a bond market price bubble, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon said, “I wouldn’t personally buy into 10-year sovereign debt anywhere around the world.” That’s because he thinks interest rates will be moving gradually higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 17, 2017

Stocks opened higher morning (Dow 102 pts; SPX .5%). Most market sectors and industries are in the green, led by real estate, banks, transports and semiconductors. Today the market is ignoring North Korea, the French election, Syria, etc. The VIX Index  is backing down to 15. The dollar and commodities are slightly lower today. The exception is copper, up 1% after some better-than-expected economic news out of China. US Bonds are continuing to rally as yields head lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are down to 1.76% and 2,23%, respectively. Those yields are 5-month lows. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 6, 2017

Stocks opened lower but quickly turned around. At the moment, the Dow and SPX are up 30 pts and .16%, respectively. And by the way, the Nasdaq just hit a fresh all-time high. Telecoms are down 2.2% in early trading; that’s just give-back after they rallied 8% in December. Gold miners are down about 2.8% today, proving that gold is volatile. The energy sector is a bit lower even as crude oil holds steady at about $53.80/barrel. The VIX Index continues to trend lower and is now trading at 11.3. Typically, when the VIX is falling the stock market is rising. Bonds reversed course this morning and yields are up. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 1.91% and 2.141%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 21, 2016

Stocks opened modestly higher this morning despite hand-wringing about today’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. (The Bank of Japan just announced an update to its monetary policy and investors are generally pleased with that.) The Dow and SPX are currently flat. Energy is by far and away the best performing sector in early trading (+1%). Transports, banks, retailers and semiconductors are up modestly as well. On the other side of the coin, biotechs and consumer staples groups are slightly lower in early trading. WTI crude oil is up about 2% to $45/barrel. Bonds are slightly lower as yields tick up. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.22% and the 10-year Treasury yield is trading around 1.70%. By the way, the 2-year Treasury, which is more sensitive to the threat of Red rate hikes, has moved up to .8%. However, we note that the last few times Fed officials have tricked us into believing they would raise rates, the 2-year yield spiked up to .9%. So bond traders are a bit guarded here. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.