National Association of Realtors (NAR)

July 23, 2018

Stocks are mixed in today’s trading session (Dow -14 pts; SPX +.16%). The financial sector is up over 1% on a positive move in the yield curve. Tech and healthcare sectors are also modestly higher, but most everything else is flat or down. The VIX Index is up modestly to trade around 13.5 and VIX August futures are down around 14.2. So the VIX isn’t predicting any increase in market volatility over the next 30-60 days. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up .25% this morning, but is still down nearly 5% so far this year. WTI crude is back up around $68.60/barrel and has been trending upward over the last 12 months. But copper, gold and many agricultural commodities are down on the year. Bonds are selling off a bit today as yields head higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up to 2.81% and the 10-year yield is up around 2.95%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 27, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher after yesterday’s massive short-covering rally in which the Dow had its third-best day in history. At the moment, the Dow and SPX are up 220 pts and .5%, respectively. After spiking to 25 yesterday, the VIX Index is down around 20 today. European markets are poised to close up about 1% and most of Asia was up overnight. All eleven sectors are in the green led by telecom, industrials and consumer staples. Traders are watching closely to see if Friday’s low holds. If so, last week’s volatility would simply be a classic rebound and re-test of the February correction low. Commodities are trading a bit lower today. WTI crude oil down .3% to $65.30/barrel. Bonds are modestly higher in price, lower in yield. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 2.61% and 2.82%, respectively. After the rate spike in January & February, it makes sense that we’d see a pause in the trend. Rates have gone nowhere in March.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 20, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow +16 pts; SPX flat). Utilities and real estate are down for the second straight session, and consumer staples about-faced to fall .7%. Telecoms are the best performing sector at the moment, up 1.5%, likely because they will really benefit from lower corporate taxes. Energy, materials and industrials are also trading higher. European stock markets will close in the red and Asia was mostly down overnight. The dollar is a bit weaker today against a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are not surprisingly trading higher. WTI crude oil is up slightly to trade around $57.80/barrel. Bonds are again selling off, with yields higher. And again, this is probably the biggest story of the day. The 5-year Treasury yield spiked to 2.24% and the 10-year yield rose to 2.49%, breaking out of its recent trading range. Importantly, the yield curve has steepened over the last two trading sessions. That is, the difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields has increased from 51 basis points to 62 basis points. When longer term rates rise faster than short term rates, it is a signal of rising inflation expectations. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 27, 2017

Stocks opened slightly higher this morning (Dow +5 pts; SPX +.11%). Financials, especially banks, and semiconductors are up over 1% in early trading. On the other hand, gold miners, utilities and consumer staples are down about 1%. European markets are poised to close up about .3% today. The dollar is a bit stronger against a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is trading up around $52.13/barrel. We haven’t seen a 52 handle on oil since April. Bonds are selling off today as interest rates tick higher. The 5-year Treasury note yield is back up to 1.90%, a two-month high. The 10-year Treasury note yield is up around 2.29% and the next stop is probably 2.39%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 15, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +45 pts; SPX +.3%). The energy sector is rebounding (+1%) along with oil prices, as are transports and biotechs. But defensive sectors like utilities and real estate are also faring well. The VIX Index is sinking as stocks head higher; now hovering around 11.8. Traders often say 20 is the level that divides benign and fearful/volatile market conditions. The VIX hasn’t touched 20 for over a year. By the way, VIX April futures are trading around 13.7, which is still very tame. Commodities are mostly higher today (copper, gold, oil, ag products). WTI crude oil is back up to $48.50/barrel today. Bonds are up in price, down in yield. And since this is the day we’ll hear from the Federal Reserve regarding an expected interest rate hike, that should tell you the bond market has already priced it in. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are down slightly to 2.11% and 2.58%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 28, 2016

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow flat; SPX -.27%). Much is begin made of the Dow’s attempt to achieve the 20,000 mark, which is an arbitrary or “psychological” level. But since Dec. 20th when it first looked like a real possibility, markets have treaded water. And trade volume has been light. Today, all eleven sectors are down, led by REITs (-.9%), semiconductors (-.6%) and biotechs (-.6%). The VIX Index climbed back to 12.5 and VIX January futures are trading around 14.3. But traders aren’t expecting a lot of volatility in the next 30 days. And that’s strange because the last three Januarys have been weak for the stock market. WTI crude oil is hovering around $54/barrel. Bonds are modestly higher in price as yields dip. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 2.06% and 2.55%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 20, 2016

Stocks opened higher this morning (following Europe’s and Asia’s lead) and erasing yesterday’s losses (Dow + 107 pts; SPX +.7%). Early trading looks to the opposite of the previous session: tech and financials are leading the way, whereas utilities and consumer staples are lagging. To be more specific, semiconductors, banks, biotechs and transports are all up over 1%. Asian market rose .5% overnight and European markets are poised to close up roughly 1.5%. The dollar is flat and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is down slightly to $47.80/barrel. Bloomberg reports US crude oil production declined for a third straight month as oil companies continue to cut back spending. Production volume fell to 8.8 million barrels per day last week, and that equates to a 4.5% decline so far in 2016. Bonds are mostly unchanged. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.38% and 1.86%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.