Robert Schiller

NOTHING TO SEE HERE, HAVE A NICE WEEKEND

Stocks dropped at the open but quickly recovered after a positive consumer sentiment report. The Dow is currently flat and the SPX is down .28%. Utilities and healthcare sectors are up modestly. Most retailers are catching a bid as well. On the other hand, semiconductors, energy and industrials are in the red. European markets closed down about .4% and China’s markets dived more than 2% last night. Emerging markets funds have really underperformed this month on rising trade tensions. Commodities are mostly lower today. WTI crude oil is flat at about $62.90/barrel. Remember, oil is reacting to Iran’s terrorism, not to the US-China trade dispute. Bonds aren’t moving much, except at the long end. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.39%. Bond traders are watching to see if the 10-year can hold above near-term support at 2.37%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 25, 2017

Stocks opened higher again today (Dow +85 pts; SPX +.48%). The Dow is back over 21,000 and the SPX just touched a new intraday high. Ten of eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by consumer discretionary, tech and real estate. Asian markets were up sharply overnight (Shanghai Composite +1.4%) “amid speculation that Chinese state-backed funds were active in the market,” according to Bloomberg. That means the state is directing large investment funds to buy stock, probably as a response to Moody’s credit rating downgrade of Chinese sovereign debt. In other words, it’s just window dressing. The dollar is slightly higher today, and commodities are lower. WTI crude oil is trading down to $50.80/barrel. OPEC oil ministers are meeting in Vienna to consider an extension of their oil output freeze agreement. It will likely pass. Bonds are mostly unchanged. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.79% and 2.26%, respectively. Remember, the trading range for the 10-year is 2.2% to 2.6%. There’s nothing to see here until it breaks out of that range. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.