Sherwin Williams (SHW)

THE EARNINGS BEAT GOES ON

Major stock market averages opened modestly higher today (Dow +86 pts; SPX +.2%). The materials sector (+1.5%) is leading the way after paint maker Sherwin Williams (SHW) reported excellent second quarter results. Financials are up (+.8%) and industrials (+.6%). However, utilities & communications services sectors are in the red. Commodities are mostly lower in early trading. WTI crude oil is back down under $56/barrel this morning. Oil is in the middle of a tug-o-war between geopolitical tensions with Iran, and modest global oversupply. Bonds are mostly lower in price as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.05%. Junk bonds, which usually trade with the economy and corporate earnings, are holding their own this year. The SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) has been roughly flat over the last three months after recovering from last year’s selloff.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

RETURN OF THE FED PUT

RETURN OF THE FED PUT

RETURN OF THE FED PUT

Stocks surged at the open this morning following yesterday’s Fed meeting. The SPX is up .8% and the Nasdaq is up 1.4%. Only the Dow is lagging a bit, down 6 points. The communications services sector shot up nearly 4%. Most other sectors are in the green as well, with the notable exceptions of financials and materials. Oil prices continue to recover, with WTI crude back above $55/barrel. Copper is now up over 5% this month, signaling some optimism over a trade deal with China. Bonds, strangely enough, are uniformly higher as well. The iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is up .8% in early trading, and the SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is up .4%. It is rather unusual to see stocks, commodities and bonds all trading higher on the same day.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 24, 2017

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning (Dow +118 pts; SPX +.17%). And in fact, the SPX has gone 242 trading days without even a minor 3% correction. Industrials are leading after 3M (MMM) reported earnings. Semiconductors, banks and retailers are also higher in early trading. On the other hand, biotechs, gold miners, utilities and real estate are in the red. Most commodities are trading higher. Copper is now up over 25% this year; WTI crude oil is up slightly to trade around $52/barrel (highest since April). Bonds are selling off again. The 5-year Treasury note yield is up around 2.03% and the 10-year yield is back up to 2.41% (highest since May). Short-term rates are rising because the Fed has signaled increased hawkishness, but long-term rates are rising more slowly because they are tied to inflation expectations. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 3, 2017

The major stock market averages opened higher again today. The Dow—currently up 65 pts—briefly touched a new all-time high. The SPX is up very slightly. Believe it or not, the telecom is leading the way, up .8%. A host of other sectors and industries are higher on the day as well (i.e. semiconductors, transports, consumer goods). Utilities & healthcare are in the red. European stock markets are poised to close up about .3% and most of Asia was higher overnight. The dollar is slightly lower against a basket of foreign currencies today, but has been strengthening over the last month. And if US economic growth accelerates & the Fed hikes interest rates again late this year, you can expect that the dollar will rise. Commodities are mixed today. Copper and gold are higher on the day but WTI crude oil backed down to around $50.30/barrel. Bonds are trading mostly higher as yields edge lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are currently at 1.92% and 2.33%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 21, 2017

Stocks are mixed in early trading (Dow flat; SPX -.1%). Traders are exercising caution in front of the French election. Not surprisingly, utilities and gold miners are in the green. But for the most part, individual stocks are responding to their respective earnings announcements (see below). The VIX Index is up around 14.5 but VIX May futures are trading at 14.3. The fact that traders don’t expect a huge spike in volatility suggests a benign outcome for the French election. WTI crude oil is down around $50.50/barrel and most other commodities are down as well. Bonds are slightly higher in price, lower in yield. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are currently at 1.75% and 2.22%, respectively. Those yields are hovering around 5-month lows. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 25, 2016

Stocks fell at the open this morning (Dow -57 pts; SPX -.37%). Nearly all major market sectors are lower, save utilities and consumer staples. But most of the movement today is in individual stocks following earnings announcements. WTI crude is down slightly to $50/barrel. Baker Hughes says US land-based drilling activity is increasing. The dollar is flat and other commodities are mixed. Copper is up over 2% as China’s stock market hit a 9-month high. China GDP is up 6.7% for three straight quarter encouraging investors to believe China has stabilized. Bonds are mostly unchanged on the day. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 22, 2016

he major stock market averages held fairly steady following a terror attack in Belgium (Dow -32 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq +.15%). It looks like two separate locations were bombed by ISIS; at least 200 people were injured. Not surprisingly, airline stocks are down about 2%. healthcare and technology sectors are modestly higher on the day. WTI crude oil is up to $41.50/barrel and Brent crude is very close to parity ($41.70/barrel). Oil’s rapid recovery flies directly in the face of most Wall Street analysts who say the actual demand/supply situation hasn’t changed at all. So the only thing that hasn’t changed is analysts’ inability to predict oil price moves. Bonds are roughly unchanged today (5-year Treasury yield 1.36%; 10-year yield 1.89%).


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.