Turkey

August 30, 2018

August 30, 2018

Stocks opened lower this morning after breaking to fresh highs earlier in the week. The Dow is currently off 112 pts and the SPX is down .28%. The materials sector is down 1.3% in early trading on weakness in gold miners and chemical producers. Banks and transports are down about .5%. Healthcare stocks are roughly flat and utilities are up modestly. The VIX Index—a common gauge of fear among traders—is back up to 12.5 but that’s still a very low level. For context, during the correction last January/February, the VIX spiked briefly to 37. European stock markets will close about .5% lower in today’s session and most of Asia was down overnight. The US dollar is a bit stronger today against a basket of foreign currencies, reacting to strong economic data (see below). Most commodities are not surprisingly trading lower. But WTI crude oil is holding steady at $69.66/barrel. Bonds are higher in price, lower in yield today. The 5-year Treasury note yield backed down to 2.76% and the 10-year yield is at 2.86%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 13, 2018

August 13, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning but quickly faded on Turkey fears. The Dow and SPX are currently down 100 pts & .23%, respectively. Retailers, semiconductors and some FAANG stocks are clinging to small gains, but most everything else is in the red. The VIX Index  is trading up around 14, the highest in two weeks but still considered very low. Exchange trade volume is 11% below normal levels for this time of year, according to Bloomberg. European markets are down .5% and most of Asia was down more than 1% last night. The dollar appreciated about 1.2% over the last week as emerging markets currencies are losing ground. Not surprisingly, commodities are falling in value. WTI crude oil is down 1% to trade around $66.60/barrel. Remember, oil was over $70/barrel a month ago. Bonds are slightly lower in today’s trade. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.74% and the 10-year is trading at 2.87%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 10, 2018

August 10, 2018

US stock markets gapped down at the open this morning (Dow -168 pts; SPX -.5%). All eleven major market sectors are in the red. The worst performing groups are semiconductors and banks. The VIX Index jumped up to 12.6 today. European stock markets are down over 1% and Asia was mostly lower overnight. Commodities are mixed even though the dollar is much stronger today. WTI crude oil is trading back up around $67.60/barrel. Bonds are higher in price, lower in yield today. This is likely due to two factors: Turkey’s growing crisis (see below) and the CPI report (see below). The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 2.88%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 9, 2018

August 9, 2018

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow -30 pts; SPX flat). It’s still a trader’s market with lots of back-and-forth but no trend. But now we’re in August and there’s no trade volume to speak of. So in some respects the day-to-day commentary doesn’t matter much. Today’s trade action—defensives leading; cyclicals mostly lagging; foreign markets lower—is exactly the opposite of what we saw earlier this week. The VIX Index—which attempts to measure investor fear—is down around 10.8. The dollar is appreciating in value against a basket of foreign currencies, and is now up 3.5% on the year. WTI crude oil is up modestly to trade around $67.10/barrel. Bonds are trading slightly higher today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back down around 2.81% and 2.94%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 7, 2018

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow +122 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq -.3%). Energy and telecom sectors spiked more than 1% in early trading. Retailers  and banks are also in the green. Tech, on the other hand, is lagging after revelations that Facebook (FB) shared user data with Chinese firms. And to be fair, the tech sector has already had a year’s worth of returns, up 13% so far in 2018. The VIX Index is trading up toward 12.3 and VIX July futures are up around 14.2. The dollar is weaker again today against a basket of foreign currencies, especially the Euro. And not surprisingly, most commodities are a bit higher. WTI crude oil is back up to $65.75/barrel. Copper is also up over 1% today, and 8% so far this month. We know copper tends to correlate with China’s economy, so that’s good news. Bonds are little changed today. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.81% and the 10-year note yield is holding right around 2.97%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 24, 2018

Stocks sank at the open this morning after President Trump canceled the nuclear summit with North Korea. The Dow is down 190 pts and the SPX is down .47%. Wow, the stock market is doing a terrible job of ignoring day-to-day political rhetoric. It fell head-over-heels for Mnuchin’s overly optimistic messaging on the China trade negotiations, and now it feigns total surprise that the North Korean summit may not happen. There are a few groups trading higher today. Utilities are up for the second consecutive day, and telecoms are trying to rebound from a 3-month slide. Industrials are also up modestly because the dollar is a bit weaker. Commodities are mixed in early trading. Gold is up 1%, not surprisingly. WTI crude oil is down 1% to $71.10/barrel. Bonds are trading up today—and over the last week—as yields dip. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 2.80% and 2.96%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.