US Dollar

September 14, 2018

September 14, 2018

Stocks opened higher again this morning, but quickly gave way after a report that President Trump wants additional trade tariffs on Chinese imported goods. Here we go again; all the news-algorithm traders just hit the sell button. The Dow and SPX are currently down 38 pts and .1%, respectively. Up until a few moments ago, transports, banks and semiconductors were the best performing groups in early trading. Foreign stock markets—even emerging markets—are trading higher on US dollar weakness as well as action by the Turkish government to stem their budding financial crisis. European markets are poised to close up by about .4% and Asia was broadly positive overnight. WTI crude oil is unchanged at about $68.60/barrel. Bonds are selling off as interest rates resume their slow slog upward. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.90%, the highest since May. The 10-year Treasury yield just moved back to 3.0%. It seems that whenever we get some positive economic news overseas, US Treasury yields rise. That’s because foreign investors often look to Treasuries as a safe haven investment when times are uncertain in their own countries.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 12, 2018

Stocks opened mixed (Dow +71 pts; SPX -.14%). Telecoms and consumer staples are leading the way, up more than 1%. Tech and financial sectors are lagging. A little optimism just crept in with this headline: “US Proposing New Trade Talks with China in the Near Future.” European stock markets will close up modestly but Asia was broadly negative overnight. The dollar is a bit weaker today against a basket of foreign currencies, so commodities are getting some life. Irion ore is up nearly 2% today, and WTI crude oil is up 2.8% to trade above $71/barrel, the highest in a month. Bonds are bouncing back a bit after yesterday’s beating. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.86% and 2.96%, respectively. That’s not much of a gap between the two, meaning that the yield curve is still very flat. The difference between the 2-year and 10-year yields is only about .22%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 24, 2018

August 24, 2018

Stocks gapped higher this morning (Dow +154 pts; SPX +.6%). Flip-flopping from yesterday’s session, cyclical sectors like materials, energy and tech are leading the way. Utilities and consumer staples sectors are flat. This comes despite impeachment talk in Washington, no apparent progress in trade talks with China, and Fed Chair Powell’s comment that our economic expansion supports the case for further gradual interest rate hikes. The reason for today’s rally appears to be the durable goods report (see below). The VIX Index fell back toward 12 this morning, indicating very little expected volatility over the next 30 days. European stock markets are poised to close about .3% higher but Asia was mixed overnight. The Chinese stock market can’t get out of its own way. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 21% this year. Today, the dollar is weaker and not surprisingly commodities are higher. WTI crude oil is trading up around $69.50/barrel. Copper is up over 2% after having fallen more than 20% this year. Bonds aren’t moving much. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tends to reflect Fed rate hike expectations, has gone nowhere for the last month. In other words, investors don’t believe the Fed will more aggressive with rate hikes. And yet, the difference between the 2-year and 10-year yields has fallen to just 19 basis points (.19%).


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 13, 2018

August 13, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning but quickly faded on Turkey fears. The Dow and SPX are currently down 100 pts & .23%, respectively. Retailers, semiconductors and some FAANG stocks are clinging to small gains, but most everything else is in the red. The VIX Index  is trading up around 14, the highest in two weeks but still considered very low. Exchange trade volume is 11% below normal levels for this time of year, according to Bloomberg. European markets are down .5% and most of Asia was down more than 1% last night. The dollar appreciated about 1.2% over the last week as emerging markets currencies are losing ground. Not surprisingly, commodities are falling in value. WTI crude oil is down 1% to trade around $66.60/barrel. Remember, oil was over $70/barrel a month ago. Bonds are slightly lower in today’s trade. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.74% and the 10-year is trading at 2.87%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 9, 2018

August 9, 2018

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow -30 pts; SPX flat). It’s still a trader’s market with lots of back-and-forth but no trend. But now we’re in August and there’s no trade volume to speak of. So in some respects the day-to-day commentary doesn’t matter much. Today’s trade action—defensives leading; cyclicals mostly lagging; foreign markets lower—is exactly the opposite of what we saw earlier this week. The VIX Index—which attempts to measure investor fear—is down around 10.8. The dollar is appreciating in value against a basket of foreign currencies, and is now up 3.5% on the year. WTI crude oil is up modestly to trade around $67.10/barrel. Bonds are trading slightly higher today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back down around 2.81% and 2.94%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 6, 2018

Stocks opened higher again this morning (Dow +224 pts; SPX +.4%). Financials are rebounding over 1.5% as interest rates head higher. So not surprisingly, the utilities sector is down over 1.5%. Emerging markets funds are up 1% today and look to be recovering a bit from a beating in recent weeks. The dollar, which has been falling over the last week or so, is giving overseas stocks some breathing room. The VIX Index continues to slide, now trading under 12, suggesting little fear among investors. Commodities are mixed, with WTI crude oil down another 1% to trade around $64.80/barrel. Recall that oil was over $70 a couple of weeks ago. Bonds are selling off as yields tick up. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up to 2.81% and 2.97%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 18, 2018

Stocks opened mixed this morning as investors await results of trade talks with China. The Dow is flat and the SPX is down .14%. Industrials and biotechs are up modestly, but most everything else is trading down. European markets are poised to close a bit lower. The VIX Index is back up around 13.6. The dollar continues to slowly strengthen and yet commodities are also rising. The dollar is now up 1.7% for the year and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 2.6%. WTI crude is unchanged today at $71.40/barrel. Bonds are trading higher as yields dip. The 5-year Treasury yield is back down around 2.90% and 3.01%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 28, 2018

The major stock market averages rebounded this morning (Dow +21 points; SPX +.14%). The cyclical sectors (tech, financials, and consumer discretionary) are leading the way after a positive GDP report. The VIX Index is back down today to trade at 17.7 and VIX March futures are now at 17.5. So there’s still a little edginess among traders about inflation’s impact on the stock market this year. European markets are poised to close modestly higher, but Asia was mostly down overnight. That’s because China’s official manufacturing business activity index (“PMI”) fell to 50.3 in February. Economists expected to see 51.1. The implication is that a large swath of China’s economy stagnated this month. Partly as a result, the dollar is stronger today. Commodities are mixed. Not surprisingly, copper is down 1.5% as it tends to move with China’s economic outlook. WTI crude oil is down 1% to trade around $62.30/barrel. Bonds are slightly higher in price, lower in yield. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.67% and 2.89% at the moment. Lately, whenever the 10-year moves closer to 3%, the stock market retreats, and when it falls back toward 2.8% stocks rise. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 11, 2018

Stocks gapped up at the open (Dow +150 pts; SPX +.5%). Energy stocks are surging ahead 2.2% in early trading, with industrials, consumer discretionary and materials up about 1%. On the other hand, real estate & utilities are down. And of course, this is the recent trend, driven by rising interest rates and improving growth expectations. The dollar is weaker today and commodities are up a bit. WTI crude oil is up the most, 1.6%, to trade around $64.58/barrel. Again, don’t miss the fact that oil has broken out to the upside. Bonds, which have been very shaky, are holding steady today. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.33% and the 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.55%. The next level of significant resistance is 2.63%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 14, 2017

Stocks gapped up again today, but quickly fell flat (Dow +1 pt; SPX flat). The tech sector is trading higher, but telecoms, materials and healthcare are in the red. The VIX Index is trading down to 9.8. European markets are poised to close .3% lower. The dollar is a bit stronger against the Euro after the European Central Bank (ECB) said Eurozone inflation will remain low for the foreseeable future. In other words, there is no reason to rush toward reducing monetary stimulus. Commodities are trading mixed. WTI crude oil is holding steady at $57.75/barrel. Bonds prices are slightly lower today. The 5-year Treasury note yield is up toward 2.15%. The 10-year yield is back up to 2.37%. In fact, the 10-year has been trading in a very tight range of 2.32% to 2.40% for the past month. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee raised its short-term policy interest rate by .25% to a target range of 1.25% to 1.50%. The move was widely expected. And by the way, the Fed lowered its forecast for unemployment in 2018 to just 3.9%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 4, 2017

The major stock market averages opened higher this morning (Dow +225 pts; SPX +.57%). Over the weekend the US Senate narrowly passed its tax reform bill, clearing the way for a conference committee to iron out differences with the House’s own bill. Value is performing better than growth today. Banks and telecoms are up over 2% in early trading. Retailers and transports are up between 1.5% and 2.5%. None of these groups has led the SPX this year, so we’re seeing a bit of catch-up. The tech sector, up over 30% this year, is taking a breather. European markets are poised to close up over 1% and Asia was mixed overnight. The dollar is stronger against a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is down 1% to trade at $57.70/barrel. Shorter-term bonds are selling off this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield rose to 2.15%, the highest since the spring of 2011. The 2-year Treasury yield is up around a nine year high. Longer term bonds, on the other hand, are pretty flat. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.39%. So the yield curve is flattening again and that’s a caution flag. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 3, 2017

The major stock market averages opened higher again today. The Dow—currently up 65 pts—briefly touched a new all-time high. The SPX is up very slightly. Believe it or not, the telecom is leading the way, up .8%. A host of other sectors and industries are higher on the day as well (i.e. semiconductors, transports, consumer goods). Utilities & healthcare are in the red. European stock markets are poised to close up about .3% and most of Asia was higher overnight. The dollar is slightly lower against a basket of foreign currencies today, but has been strengthening over the last month. And if US economic growth accelerates & the Fed hikes interest rates again late this year, you can expect that the dollar will rise. Commodities are mixed today. Copper and gold are higher on the day but WTI crude oil backed down to around $50.30/barrel. Bonds are trading mostly higher as yields edge lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are currently at 1.92% and 2.33%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 28, 2017

Stocks gapped down at the open but quickly recovered. The Dow is currently up 22 pts and the SPX is flat. Transports, semiconductors, pharma and gold miners are trading higher, but banks and retailers are giving back some of their recent gains. By the way, the SPX is poised to achieve its eight consecutive quarterly gain. European markets are up slightly in today’s session after a survey of economic confidence gave investors a positive surprise. Most of Asia was higher overnight. The dollar is weaker today and WTI crude oil is up again to trade around $52.30/barrel. Bonds continue to sell off as yields march higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 1.92% and in the near term it could move up to test resistance at 1.96%. The 10-year Treasury yield is up around 2.33% and will likely test 2.40% in the near future. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 6, 2017

Stocks opened higher this morning, rebounding from yesterday’s dip. The Dow is currently up 66 pts and the SPX is up .16%. Energy producers, transports, and retailers are leading the charge. The VIX Index is up a bit to trade around 12.5 (from 10 a week ago), but with Hurricane Irma and North Korea tensions, you’d think it would be higher. The dollar is weaker today, and off nearly 10% year-to-date. The dollar has been a quiet support to US multi-national companies selling goods abroad. Commodities are mostly higher on the day, with WTI crude oil up around $49.20/barrel. Oil prices have risen from about $42/barrel near the end of June but many energy stocks haven’t really kept pace. They may begin to catch-up. The bond market has strengthened over the past two months as yields have fallen. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.65% and 2.07%, respectively. Speaking of yields, CNBC interviewed Mark Grant of Hilltop Securities yesterday. He said global “central banks now have $19 trillion in assets and they’re adding $300 billion per month. They keep growing it, and that’s driving equity prices up, and bond yields down.” Unless central banks change their policy actions, the trend will continue. Of course, we know that the US Federal Reserve would like to tighten monetary policy, but low inflation & interest rates are making that difficult. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 18, 2017

Stocks opened lower again today (Dow -40 pts; SPX -.3%). Gold miners and utilities are modestly higher, but most everything else is in the red. Real estate and telecom sectors are down .9%. Yesterday, the VIX Index spiked to 15.5 but today is back down under 15. VIX September futures are also around 15. CNBC points out that we’re not yet seeing a large selloff on big volume and that could be a sign of stability. In fact, a lot of professional investors are on vacation and exchange volume is very light. The dollar is weaker and commodities are mixed today. WTI crude oil is trading slightly lower to $46.95/barrel. Bonds are trading mostly higher in price, lower in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.18%. And remember, at the beginning of the year the 10-year yield was near 2.5%. Since then, falling inflation expectations have resulted in lower yields. Alan Blinder, former Federal Reserve official, characterizes the dip in inflation this year as “mysterious.” Six months ago we had stable inflation, and now we’re seeing falling inflation. “What in the world happened?” He implied our methods for measuring economic activity may be flawed. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 27, 2017

Stocks opened lower today. The Dow is currently down 14 pts and the S&P 500 is down .24%. Telecoms and utilities are getting hit, down over 1% at the moment. Semiconductors & biotechs are giving up ground as well. On the other hand, banks and oil/natural gas stocks are up nicely this morning. The dollar is weaker against a basket of foreign currencies today, and has given up about 5% this year. That’s helping US multi-national companies doing business overseas. Most commodities are rebounding (copper, iron ore, oil). WTI crude oil is up again today, trading around $44.11/barrel. The more convinced traders are that oil bottomed last week, the better the stock market will do in the near-term. Bonds are selling off today (maybe a response to oil?). Remember, falling bond yields happen to be the linchpin in most bear investor forecasts. At the moment, the 5-year Treasury yield is back up to 1.81% and the 10-year is up to 2.19%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 7, 2017

Stocks opened higher but quickly turned around (Dow +10 pts; SPX +.06%). Banks and semiconductors are leading the way (+1%); biotechs & retailers are also up modestly. Energy stocks are dragging. The VIX Index is down around 10.2. Over the last couple of trading sessions, the SPX and Dow have broken out to new highs. The dollar is a bit stronger today and so most commodities are lower. WTI crude oil just slipped 3.5% to trade around $46.50/barrel after a report showing higher US oil stockpiles. This is what turned the stock market around. Gold, copper and iron ore are down today as well. Bonds are The 10-year Treasury yield is down around 2.15%, the lowest since November 10th. It looks to me like that yield is sitting right on trendline support.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 26, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning, digesting the prior week’s gains. The Dow is down 22 pts and the SPX is off .1%. Banks, semiconductors and energy stocks are leading the indices lower. The VIX Index just dropped under 10, right around the lowest level in at least 10 years. VIX June futures are trading under 12 this morning. So an apparent lack of concern (“complacency”) among traders is a bit of a concern. The dollar is modestly stronger today, yet most commodities are a bit higher. WTI crude oil is up .5% to trade around $49/barrel. Oil prices fell sharply yesterday even as OPEC pledged to extend its oil production freeze. Investors were hoping the cartel would agree to deeper cuts. Bonds are trading slightly higher. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.79% and 2.25%, respectively. And by the way, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 3.95%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 16, 2017

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning but quickly faded. The Dow is currently trading down 10 pts and the SPX is down .1%. Technology and consumer staples sectors are up modestly, but all other sectors are lower. There are a few sub-groups of stocks in the green, including semiconductors and gold miners; most retailers are down after Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) reported weak first quarter results. The VIX Index is hovering around 10.5, so no change there. The dollar is a bit weaker; Bloomberg reports the dollar has fallen back to pre-election levels. Many investors don’t believe President Trump’s pro-growth political agenda will pan out. Commodities are mixed and WTI crude oil is unchanged at $48.85/barrel. Bonds are rising in price again, falling in yield. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 1.83% and 2.31%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 29, 2017

Stocks opened mixed today (Dow -48 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq +.2%). We’re in no-man’s-land until earnings season starts in a couple of weeks. Energy stocks are bouncing back (+1%) after taking a beating so far this year. Retailers, gold miners and biotechs are up nicely, but most everything else is lower in early trading. The VIX Index is back down under 12 and VIX April futures are down to 12.8. The dollar is up a bit and yet most commodities are higher. WTI crude oil is up over $49/barrel. Remember, early this year oil prices corrected 12% and are just now beginning to move back up toward $50. Bonds are mostly higher in price, lower in yield. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are down to 1.94% and 2.39%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.