US dollar

CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK STABILIZES GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS

Stocks opened sharply higher this morning (Dow +197 pts; SPX +1.4%). All eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by tech (+1.9%), materials & consumer discretionary (+1.7%), and communications services (+1.5%). In fact, the SPX has now recovered 50% of its recent decline. The VIX Index collapsed back to 17.6 as jittery traders breath a sigh of relief. Near-term, it looks like Monday’s SPX correction low was successfully re-tested yesterday. But make no mistake, we’re not out of the woods when it comes to volatility. Remember, President Trump’s new round of trade tariffs is scheduled to take effect at the beginning of September. For the moment, however, everything looks rosy. European markets closed up by more than 1%, and Asian markets are also up overnight. Commodities are rebounding today, paced by a sharp recovery in oil prices. WTI crude is up 3% to trade around $52.60/barrel. The bond market about-faced as well. Junk bonds, which sold off by 2% early this month, are now recovering. Treasuries and high-grade corporates, however, are selling off after a monster run. The 10-year Treasury Note yield, which collapsed from 2% to 1.71% in a matter of a few days, ticked up to 1.75%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TRADE WAR ESCALATES

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -225 pts; SPX -1%) after President Trump threatened another round of 10% trade tariffs on Chinese imports. The market began today’s session as if the next economic recession is right around the corner. Energy, materials and tech are down well over 1%. Only utilities and real estate are catching a bid. The dollar is weaker against a basket of foreign currencies. Perhaps the only real surprise is that oil prices spiked and gold is flat. Safe-haven Treasury bonds are up on the day, whereas junk bonds are falling in value. The 10-year Treasury Note yield tumbled quickly to 1.87%, the lowest since 2016’s presidential election.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

FED STIMULUS WHETHER WE NEED IT OR NOT

The stock market jumped at the open after the Federal Reserve rate cut yesterday. At the moment, the Dow is up 300 pts and the SPX is up 1%. The tech sector (+2.2%) is leading the way, along with communications (+1.3%) and consumer staples (+1.2%). Financials are lagging—up a mere .3%--in the wake of the rate cut. Strangely enough, the dollar strengthened after the Fed cut, probably because other central banks around the world (i.e. Europe, China) are expected to pursue stimulus more aggressively than the US Fed in the near future. So commodities are mostly trading lower today. WTI crude sank 2.7% to trade around $57/barrel after a report confirming a rebound in US production levels (12.2 million barrels per day). Traders are saying the world is well supplied. In addition, US and Chinese trade negotiators parted ways after accomplishing nothing this week and traders are using that as an excuse to sell. Bonds are up in price, down in yield today. From short-term to long-term, from corporates to Treasuries, the bond market is up across the board. The 10-year Treasury Note yield fell back to 1.95%, matching the lowest level going back to November 2016.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

GOOD NEWS IS BAD NEWS

The major stock market averages opened lower this morning after a stronger than expected jobs report. The Dow is currently down 106 pts and the SPX is down .55%. The financials sectors is up about .25% but all other sectors are lower in early trading. European stock markets closed down by about .6% today. In the wake of the jobs report the dollar strengthened and commodities fell. Gold is down 1.5%, copper is down about 1% and WTI crude oil fell back to $57.28/barrel. In addition, the bond market reacted by selling off. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 2.05% from 1.95% in the prior trading session. Whether municipals or corporates of Treasuries, the bond market is down sharply today. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 1.6%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TROUBLE WITH TRADE

The major stock market averages gapped down at the open after news that US-China trade talks are breaking down. The Dow is currently down 220 pts and the SPX is down .95%. Consumer discretionary, industrials, tech and materials sectors are all down more than 1%. The VIX Index spiked briefly to 19 before falling back to 16. WTI crude oil dipped slightly to $61.60/barrel. The US dollar strengthened and gold is modestly higher today. Bonds are trading higher (except for junk). The 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 2.48%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

BOND MARKET DEBATE

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +89 pts; SPX +.5%). The best performing sectors include tech (+1.4%) and financials (+.7%). Sub-groups like biotechs and gold miners are also catching a bid. But real estate, energy and communications stocks are down in early trading. REITs just hit an all-time high, so it makes sense that we’d see some give-back here. The VIX Index continues to fall, suggesting traders are complacent about risk over the next 30 days. European markets will close higher by roughly .5% to 1% today. Asian markets also posted gains last night. The dollar is weaker against a basket of foreign currencies, giving a little boost to commodities. Remember, many commodities are priced in US dollars around the world. However, WTI crude oil ($58.40/barrel) is taking a breather today after a monster run year-to-date; same thing with copper (+11% YTD). Bonds are trading higher in price, lower in yield today. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down to a fresh 2 ½ month low of 2.59%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

IMPROVING SENTIMENT

IMPROVING SENTIMENT

Stocks opened higher again today, as investor sentiment gradually improves. The Dow is currently up 143 pts and the SPX is up .5%. Tech, energy, healthcare and industrials are up nicely in early trading. Utilities, consumer staples, real estate and communications services are in the red. European stock markets will close up by about .5% and Asia was broadly higher overnight. The Shanghai Composite Index, China’s main stock index, closed up .7%. The dollar is down about .5% against a basket of foreign currencies. That’s a big deal. Dollar weakness means emerging markets stocks do better; it means US multi-national exporters do better; it signals that investors believe inflation is well under control and the Fed won’t be aggressive with monetary tightening. It might even signal more optimism (among traders) that the trade war can be resolved. All else equal, commodities generally rise as the dollar weakens. WTI crude oil is up nearly 3% today to trade at $51.25/barrel. Copper and gold are up modestly as well. Bonds are trading slightly higher as well. Both investment-grade and high-yield corporate bond ETFs are up about .2% today. The exception is long-term Treasuries. Whereas the 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are basically flat to slightly lower, the 30-year Treasury yield jumped up to 3.02%. And remember, we want Treasuries to sell off when the stock market is moving higher. I can’t emphasize enough how closely traders are watching the bond market as a signal to whether the stock market recovery can continue.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 4, 2019

January 4, 2019

The stock market gapped up at the open after an encouraging jobs report (see below). The Dow and SPX are currently up 650 pts and 3%, respectively. Tech—hated by traders yesterday—is the best-performing sector, up over 3.5%. The materials sector is up 3% in early trading. Transports—again, hated yesterday—are up over 3% as well. The VIX Index is back down to 22.7, exactly even with VIX January futures. Traders are wondering why, when the market is now routinely moving more than 2% per day, the VIX isn’t well into the 30s. It may no longer be an accurate reflection of market volatility. European markets will close up over 2% in today’s session. The Chinese stock market has stabilized over the last several days, so that’s good news. After the release of the jobs report this morning, the dollar strengthened and bonds sold off. Opposite of the recent trend, Treasury bonds fell in price but junk bonds rose. The 10-year Treasury Note yield climbed back to 2.66%, surging 10 basis points from yesterday’s level. Bond yields provide different signals depending on the economic & market situation. At this moment, rising yields will signal some relief that perhaps the economic outlook isn’t as dire as the bears think.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 17, 2018

December 17, 2018

The major stock market averages fell at the open but quickly pared losses. At the moment, the Dow and SPX are down 104 pts and .5%, respectively. Utilities and real estate sectors are down over 1% in early trading, whereas the financial sector is finally catching a bid. Semiconductors are up 1% as well. The VIX Index is up around 22.5 and VIX January futures are up around 21. That tells us traders are still nervous and expect continued volatility. The dollar is a bit weaker today, but commodities aren’t uniformly higher. WTI crude oil fell back to $50/barrel. Copper is down again—now -20% on the year. That ought to tell you China’s economy is slowing. Bonds are catching a bid as interest rates tick lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 2.71% and 2.86%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 10, 2018

December 10, 2018

Stocks sank at the open again this morning. The Dow is currently off 367 pts and the SPX is down 1.25%. Energy and financials are worst-performing, down over 2.5%. Even the more defensive utilities sector is down nearly 1%. The VIX Index, a gauge of fear among traders, is up around 25, matching late October levels. WTI crude oil is down 2% to trade around $51.50/barrel. Most other commodities are down on the day and the dollar is stronger. Bonds are trading flat to slightly higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 3, 2018

December 3, 2018

Stocks surged at the open following a positive outcome at the G-20 meeting in Argentina over the weekend. The Dow is currently up 228 pts and the SPX is up .87%. Cyclical sectors (consumer discretionary, energy, industrials, tech, materials) are up over 1% in early trading. On the other hand, consumer staples and real estate sectors are in the red. European stock markets closed up about 1% and Asian markets were up 1-3% overnight. The dollar is weaker after the G-20 on reduced trade war tensions, and that’s giving some breathing room to commodities. WTI crude oil is up 3% to trade around $52.50/barrel. Despite the lower dollar, bonds are roughly flat on the day. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.83% and 2.99%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 8, 2018

November 8, 2018

Stocks opened mixed today (Dow +65 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq -.3%). Banks (+.9%) and retailers (+.8%) are the clear leaders. On the other hand, utilities and energy stocks are down between .7% and 1%. It’s a bit surprising that anything is up after yesterday’s monster rally, which saw the SPX up 2%. The VIX Index dove to 16 yesterday and VIX December futures are down around 16.8. Traders are furiously debating whether October’s correction will resume, or whether the market is setting up for a holiday rally. Meanwhile, the SPX is now only 4.5% off of its all-time high. The US dollar is stronger today and not surprisingly, emerging markets stocks (i.e. iShares Emerging Markets ETF) are down over 1.5% today. Commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is down over 1% again this morning to trade around $60.75/barrel. Some market commentators are beginning to panic because oil has fallen 20% from its early October highs. Here again, a debate is emerging as to whether global oil demand is falling. The last time oil fell 20% was the first half of 2017. Bonds are mostly unchanged as yields hover in place awaiting the Fed announcement later today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are trading at 3.08% and 3.23%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 1, 2018

November 1, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher this morning after a Tweet by President Trump saying he has re-engaged China’s president regarding trade tensions. The Dow is currently up 227 pts and the SPX is up .7%. Most sectors are rising, led by materials (+3%), and industrials (+1.5%). Those two groups are viewed as having the most sensitivity to trade tariffs.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 29, 2018

October 29, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning. The Dow is currently up 105 pts and the SPX is up .7%. Utilities, consumer staples, materials, real estate, healthcare and financials are all up over 1% at the moment. Energy and consumer discretionary sectors are down slightly. The VIX Index, a measure of traders’ fear, fell back to 24 after spiking above 25 on Friday. European stock markets will close up over 1% and Asia was mixed overnight. China’s markets, however, are still under pressure. The Shanghai Composite Index is down over 28% this year in local currency terms. The dollar is a bit stronger today against a basket of foreign currencies, and up nearly 5% in 2018. Wall Streeters are increasingly concerned that a stronger dollar will hurt US businesses selling overseas. A few blue-chip companies have said so in recent days. Commodities are trading lower. WTI crude oil is down .6% to trade at $67.17/barrel. Bonds are selling off today after a pretty strong run over the last week or so. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields ticked up to 2.94% and 3.10%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 21, 2018

September 21, 2018

tocks opened higher again this morning (Dow +70 pts; SPX +.12%). These averages are having their best week in two months despite escalation in the trade war. Telecoms are surging 1.5% after a research shop upgraded AT&T (T). Industrials and energy sectors are up about .5%. After a 2.8% gain this week, financials are trading flat. European stock markets are up .8% today and Asia was broadly higher overnight. Bonds, on the other hand, are trading lower as interest rates head higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 2.96%, a 10-year high. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 3.07%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 20, 2018

he major stock market averages gapped up again at the open. The Dow is currently up 240 pts and the SPX is up .68%. Ten of eleven sectors are in the green, led by tech (+1%), materials (+1%) and consumer staples (+1%). Only energy is stalling. The VIX Index just fell back under 12 despite the fact that we’ve had no good news on the trade war front. European stock markets are poised to close up nearly 1%. Asia was mixed overnight. The dollar is falling against a basket of foreign currencies and that’s allowing emerging markets equities to continue yesterday’s rally. Commodities are mixed today. WTI crude oil is unchanged at $70.95/barrel. Copper and gold are also flat on the session. Bonds are mixed after a 3-week selloff. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.95% today. The 10-year yield is unchanged at 3.06%. Junk bonds have been performing better than Treasuries or investment grade corporates all year, and today is no exception.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 10, 2018

September 10, 2018

The major stock market averages are mixed today (Dow -42 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq flat). Transports (+1.5%), retailers (+.4%) and semiconductors (+.8%) are faring the best. Healthcare and gold miners are down on the day, as are emerging markets. The banks are roughly flat. The VIX Index is back down around 14 after hitting 15 last Friday. European stock markets closed in the green but most of Asia was down overnight. China’s market continues to falter, now down 23% on the year, after yet another threat by President Trump to escalate the trade war. Most commodities are lower on the day. WTI crude oil is trading at $67.57/barrel after having touched $70 a week ago. Gold is now down 8% this year & copper is off over 20%. Bonds are falling in price (rising in yield) today. The 5-year Treasury Note yield is back up around 2.82%, a one-month high. The 10-year yield is up around 2.94%, inching closer to 3%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 20, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +77 pts; SPX +.24%). Most sectors and industry groups are in green, led by energy, materials and industrials. However, semiconductors, gold miners and biotechs are not participating. The VIX Index is down slightly to trade around 12.5. Remember, the VIX is coming off of a mini spike to nearly 15 a week ago. European stock markets are broadly positive today, in the neighborhood of +.8% and most of Asia traded higher overnight. The dollar is flat against a basket of foreign currencies today but has spiked this month. WTI crude oil is up slightly to trade around $66.20/barrel. Copper is sitting near a 13-month low, mostly in sympathy with China’s trade war-induced stock market correction. Save oil, commodities generally haven’t done well this year (Gold -9%, silver -14%, iShares Global Agricultural Producers ETF -2%; iron ore flat). Bonds are up in price, down in yield this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield backed down to 2.70% and the 10-year yield fell to 2.83%. It does appear that yields are range-bound for the near term. In fact, over the last seven months the 10-year has been mostly confined to the range of 2.80% to 3.00%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 26, 2018

The major stock market averages opened up this morning after a beating yesterday. The Dow is currently up 55 pts and the SPX is up .23%. Most sectors are rebounding, led by energy (+.8%), tech (+.5%) and real estate (+.5%). European markets will close slightly higher and Asian markets were mostly down overnight. The dollar continues to strengthen as foreign markets soften up. One reason may be that China is devaluing its currency in order to make its exports more competitive overseas. Despite the return of volatility and uncertainty resulting from geopolitical risk, gold is still down 3% this year. WTI crude popped 1.8% to $69.30/barrel after the US State Dept. announced US companies can no longer import Iranian crude. Bonds are rising in price again as yields tick lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back down around 2.75% and 2.88%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 25, 2019

Stocks fell at the open on fresh trade provocations by the Trump Administration. The Dow and SPX are currently down 366 pts and 1.3%, respectively. Again, industrials and materials—which would fare the worst in a trade war—are down about 1%. The tech sector is down nearly 2% as semiconductors are also seen as vulnerable. On the other hand, defensive sectors like utilities and telecoms, are in the green. Asian stock markets continue to fall. The Shanghai Composite is down 20% from its January highs. The US dollar is about 5.5% stronger than it was in mid-April, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 4.5% over the same period. WTI crude oil is down slightly to trade at $68.36/barrel. OPEC agreed to a vague increase in oil production.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.