VXTLT Index

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM FOR THE MOMENT

Stocks opened modestly higher this morning, edging closer to April highs. The Dow is currently up 58 pts and the SPX is flat. Banks, retailers, semiconductors and energy are all up about .5% in early trading. On the other hand, utilities, industrials and healthcare are down. VIX July futures are trading around 17, suggesting traders don’t expect a near-term volatility spike. Expected Treasury bond market volatility has collapsed this month as well. Commodities are mostly higher today, save gold. WTI crude oil bounced back to $53.50/barrel after bottoming around $51.70 a week ago. The bond market is mixed today. Treasuries are selling off a bit after a monster 6-week run. The 10-year Treasury yield notched up to 2.16%. Corporates are faring better in early trading, with the SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) up about .3%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 5, 2017

Stocks opened a bit lower this morning. At the moment, the Dow is down 8 pts and the SPX is down .12%. Oil producers and semiconductors are higher in early trading. Most other groups, however, are modestly lower. The VIX Index is hovering around 10, considered very low, and the VXTLT (long-term Treasury bond volatility) is trading at 10.8. So expected volatility on both stocks and bonds is down quite a bit this year. European markets are down about .3% after last weekend’s terror attack in the UK. Most of Asia was down about the same percentage overnight. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 7, 2016

The major stock market averages opened lower. The Dow and SPX are currently down 48 pts & -.2%, respectively. Tech & energy sectors are modestly higher but the defensive sectors are in the red. Over the last couple of months, we’ve seen utilities, consumer staples and telecoms lose momentum, whereas the tech sector has clearly begun to lead. The VIX Index is currently trading at 12 suggesting very little volatility over the next 30 days. And the VXTLT, which measures fear in the Treasury bond market, is also very low. Bonds are little changed on the day and have been trading in a very tight range over the last month. Yields are showing no sign that the Federal Reserve is preparing to hike interest rates. Indeed, some of the latest economic data have been rather negative (ISM business activity surveys). 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 23, 2016

he major stock market averages surged at the open (Dow +44 pts; SPX +.38%). Nine of ten market sectors are in the green, led by materials. Semiconductors continue to power ahead (SOX Index is up nearly 21% this year). Energy is bouncing back as oil moves higher. European stock markets are poised to close up 1% and Asia was mostly up overnight. WTI crude is trading up around $48/barrel on nothing more than speculation that OPEC will freeze oil production at current levels. Bonds aren’t moving much this morning. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 1.14% and 1.55%, respectively. The VXTLT (volatility index for long-term Treasuries) is down around 12, which suggests very little volatility in long bonds in the next 30 days. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 12, 2016

Stocks gapped down at the open but have pared losses. The Dow and SPX are currently off 40 pts & .1%, respectively. All three major averages (SPX, Dow, Nasdaq) hit all-time highs yesterday. Energy, utilities and consumer staples sectors are leading the way. Financials, industrials, healthcare are lagging. The VIX Index continues to fall, now trading around 11.4 and suggests very little market volatility over the next 30 days. The same is true for the VXTLT, which measures fear in the long-term Treasury bond market. The dollar is lower today and WTI crude oil is up again to $44/barrel. Bonds are slightly higher as yields dip. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are at 1.08% and 1.49%, respectively. Yields have been hovering in a tight range for the past month. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.