business investment

EARNINGS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS TO THE RESCUE

Stocks opened higher today after Apple’s (AAPL) earnings announcement (see below). The Dow is currently up 369 pts and the SPX is up 1%. Tech, industrials and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the way, up over 1% in early trading. In particular, AAPL is up 4.7% and Amazon (AMZN) is up 3.4%. The VIX Index—a common fear gauge among traders—is still hovering around 19 where it has been for the past couple of weeks. With every passing day it seems more likely that Christmas Eve was the correction bottom. Commodities are trading mostly higher today. WTI crude oil is back up around $54.70/barrel and you can expect it to keep going in the near term. Bonds are mixed; Treasuries are down but junk bonds are higher on the day. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.73% and has been pretty tight to that level over the last two weeks. The yield curve is still flattish but hasn’t inverted yet. By the way, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference today discussing the FOMC’s monthly policy meeting.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 6, 2017

Stocks sank at the open after a disappointing jobs report. The Dow is currently down 33 pts and the SPX is down .28%. Just about everything is in the red except for gold miners, semiconductors and healthcare stocks. The VIX Index, which has been languishing below 10 for over a week, is up a bit to trade around 9.8. VIX October futures are up slightly to trade around 11. That’s not much of a move. Commodities are lower on the day; WTI crude oil is down 3% to $49/barrel. Despite a weak day for stocks, bonds are selling off as well. The 5-year Treasury yield shot up to 1.96% and the 10-year yield rose to 2.36%. It seems bond traders didn’t like the jobs report for a different reason—rising wage inflation.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 27, 2017

Stocks opened slightly higher this morning (Dow +5 pts; SPX +.11%). Financials, especially banks, and semiconductors are up over 1% in early trading. On the other hand, gold miners, utilities and consumer staples are down about 1%. European markets are poised to close up about .3% today. The dollar is a bit stronger against a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is trading up around $52.13/barrel. We haven’t seen a 52 handle on oil since April. Bonds are selling off today as interest rates tick higher. The 5-year Treasury note yield is back up to 1.90%, a two-month high. The 10-year Treasury note yield is up around 2.29% and the next stop is probably 2.39%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 30, 2017

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning. The Dow and SPX are currently down 10 points and up .2%, respectively. Cyclical sectors are rebounding today (energy, financials, tech). Utilities, which recently hit a 1-year high, are fading. The dollar is a bit stronger today after some encouraging economic data, but is still down 9% year-to-date against a basket of foreign currencies. Commodities are mostly lower; WTI crude is hovering around $46/barrel. Bonds are slightly lower in price, higher in yield. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields ticked up to 1.72% and 2.13%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 26, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning, digesting the prior week’s gains. The Dow is down 22 pts and the SPX is off .1%. Banks, semiconductors and energy stocks are leading the indices lower. The VIX Index just dropped under 10, right around the lowest level in at least 10 years. VIX June futures are trading under 12 this morning. So an apparent lack of concern (“complacency”) among traders is a bit of a concern. The dollar is modestly stronger today, yet most commodities are a bit higher. WTI crude oil is up .5% to trade around $49/barrel. Oil prices fell sharply yesterday even as OPEC pledged to extend its oil production freeze. Investors were hoping the cartel would agree to deeper cuts. Bonds are trading slightly higher. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.79% and 2.25%, respectively. And by the way, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently 3.95%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 16, 2017

Stocks opened a bit lower this morning (Dow -45 pts; SPX -.29%) following yesterday’s rally. Just about everything—except tech, financials and some retailers—is lower in early trading. The market has been very resilient, however, and the Dow has now gone 106 days since experiencing a 1% daily move. Most commodities are higher on the day. But WTI crude is trading down to $48.65/barrel. Bonds are trading slightly lower as yields tick higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is currently 2.02% and the 10-year is trading at 2.52%. By the way, junk bonds are the real story in the bond market this month. After selling off during the last few weeks, they rebounded strongly yesterday in the wake of the Fed announcement (see below).


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 5, 2016

Stocks opened lower this morning, following weakness in Europe. The Dow and S&P 500 are down 120 pts & .8%, respectively. The VIX Index is back up around 16 and VIX July futures are trading up around 17. So volatility isn’t expected to wane in the next 30 days. The defensive sectors (consumer staples, telecom and utilities) are holding up well despite really stretched valuations. The cyclical sectors, on the other hand, are struggling to maintain last week’s momentum. Energy stocks are down 2% in early trading and WTI crude oil is down over 4% to $46.80/barrel. The dollar is stronger this morning and commodities are sharply lower. Bond yields are also lower. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading around .94% & 1.37%, respectively. And by the way, German Bund yields are down to all-time lows. So currencies and yields are telling you the stock market won’t likely break out to new highs in the near term. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 26, 2016

Stocks opened higher but quickly gave way (Dow -10 pts; SPX flat). Tech and healthcare are leading to the downside. Energy stocks are rising, however, as oil prices continue to move higher. WTI crude is now trading up to $43.50/barrel. Last Friday, Baker Hughes said its count of active oil drilling rigs in the US fell 8 rigs to 343. Back in 2008, that same rig count was over 2,000. The dollar is weaker today, and down to a 10-month low against a basket of foreign currencies. That, plus higher oil prices, should be additive to corporate earnings in the last half of the year. A weaker dollar is helping the materials sector rise (groggily) from the dead. Bonds are selling off again, with yields moving higher. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are up to 1.39% and 1.93%, respectively. Strangely, the 2-year Treasury yield is also at a 1-month high despite that fact that no one sees the Fed raising interest rates anytime soon.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 4, 2016

Stocks opened down but (true to recent trend) are recovering. The Dow and SPX are currently flat. Healthcare and telecom sectors are leading the way. The Nasdaq Biotech Index is up 2% today after having been smashed this year. The VIX Index is trading up toward 14, but that’s still very tame. Year-to-date, the SPX and Dow are now in the green, up about 1.8% and 2.8%, respectively. The Nasdaq is lagging a bit, down 1.6% for the year. Oil and most other commodities are trading lower on the day. WTI crude oil down modestly to $36.50/barrel. Remember, back in mid-March oil was trading up around $40/barrel. So we’ve seen some give-back.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.