china

TRADE FRICTION TAKING A TOLL

The major stock market averages opened lower again today on trade tensions (Dow -278 pts; SPX -.9%). All eleven market sectors are down, led by Energy, healthcare, consumer discretionary, and communications (all down about 1%). European stock markets closed down over 1% as well, and most Asian markets closed lower last night. The one exception seems to have been the Shanghai Composite, which closed slightly higher on the session. Commodities are mixed today. Corn futures surged as flooding threatened crops. Copper rose .9% today after falling about 8% so far this month. WTI crude oil fell 2.7% to trade around $57.50/barrel. Bonds are trading mostly higher, especially safe-haven Treasuries. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since September 2017.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

HIGHER TRADE TARIFFS COME AT LAST

The major stock market averages opened lower as the trade war with China escalated. The Dow is down 290 pts and the SPX is down 1.4%. The pattern over the last few trading sessions has been a sharp decline in the morning following by a recovery in the afternoon. We’ll see if that pattern persists today; my guess is that traders won’t want to be “long” going into the weekend. Tech and healthcare are the worst performing sectors at the moment, down about 1.8%. Utilities is the only sector in the green. The VIX Index continues to hover around 20, which is typically considered the lower threshold of elevated fear among traders. Overseas things are looking better. European markets closed flat. China’s Shanghai Composite Index actually closed up by 3%! Commodities are trading mostly higher. Copper, gold and iron ore are up a bit. WTI crude oil is flat at $61.60/barrel. Bonds are following the same pattern we’ve seen through the week. Treasuries are up in price, down in yield; high yield corporates (junk) are down in price, up in yield. The 10-year Treasury yield is all the way back down to 2.43%. So bonds are painting a risk-off picture, if only temporarily.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

TRADE WAR REDUX?

Tough trade talk is again knocking the stock market around this morning. The Dow is currently down 440 pts and the SPX is off 1.6%. All eleven market sectors are in the red, let by tech (-2%). Several industry groups are down more than 2%, including semiconductors, transports, and biotechs. The VIX Index, a measure of investor fear, jumped to 20 for the first time since January. European stock markets closed down by 1-2% in today’s session. Obviously, crude oil fell on the news. WTI crude is trading back down around $61.30/barrel. Bonds are mixed. Corporates are flat to down, whereas lower-risk Treasury bonds are up on the day. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.46%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

MIXED SIGNALS ON THE ECONOMY

The major stock market averages opened slightly higher after Apple’s (AAPL) surprise earnings announcement (sell below). The Dow is currently up 39 pts and the SPX is just above flat. Not surprisingly, the tech sector is leading the way, up .8% in early trading. The defensive sectors are giving up yesterday’s gains (except, oddly, for real estate). The energy sector is down .8% on lower oil prices. WTI crude oil fell back to $63.40/barrel following a report showing higher than expected crude stockpiles. Bonds are gaining ground again today as yields tick lower. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.48%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

GDP AND EARNINGS DISAPPOINTING

The major stock market averages fell at the open but quickly pared losses. The Dow is currently up 33 points and the SPX is up .17%. Nine of eleven market sectors are higher in early trading, led by materials (+1%) and consumer staples (+.6%). But energy and tech sectors are down sharply. WTI crude oil plunged 4% to trade around $62.40/barrel after President Trump complained to OPEC that oil prices are too high. That’s the problem with oil—it really is the purview of traders, not investors. Price fluctuations are driven more by headlines and politics than by actual supply and demand. You get far more volatility than is warranted. Copper is down today along with China’s stock market after the Chinese government signaled less economic stimulus going forward. Bonds are faring well today as yields dip. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back to 2.50% from 2.60% a week ago.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

HEALTHCARE ROUT

Stocks opened a bit lower this morning (Dow -23 pts; SPX -.2%). The healthcare sector is down nearly 2% today and 5.5% so far this month. The direct cause is fear over the rise of socialism in Congress. See yesterday’s update for more details. The real estate sector is down 1% today and 2.7% this month after having climbed over 17% during the first quarter. Semiconductor stocks are up over 1% after Apple (AAPL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) finally settled their legal battle over intellectual property. The energy sector is up about .5% after a report showing lower than expected crude stockpiles in the US. Commodities are mixed. Copper is now up 14% this year and a good portion of that has to do with China stimulating its economy. WTI crude is flat on the day at $64/barrel. Bonds are trading pretty flat as well. The 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering around 2.59%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

JOBS REPORT TO THE RESCUE

Stocks opened higher this morning after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its March jobs report (see below). The Dow is currently up 34 pts and the SPX is up .38%. Nine of eleven major market sectors are trading higher, led by energy (+1.5%) and healthcare (+.8%). The communications services sector is flat. Small-caps and emerging markets equities are outperforming today. The US dollar is slightly higher in early trading, and commodities are mixed.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

STOCK RALLY EXTENDED, EXPECT TEST OF HIGHS

Stocks opened higher today, extending the recovery rally. The Dow is currently up 75 pts and the SPX is up .5%. The SPX is now only 1.5% away from its all-time closing high back in September 2018. Nine of eleven major market sectors are higher, led by materials, tech and communications services. Only consumer staples and energy sectors are lower on the day…


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

DOUBLING DOWN ON A DOVISH FED

The major stock market averages are mixed in early trading (Dow -70 pts; SPX +.5%; Nasdaq +.6%). Gold miners, healthcare, and energy exploration stocks are all up about .7% to 1.2%%. On the other hand, airline and aerospace names are trading lower, paced by Boeing (BA) down 6.7% after the Ethiopian Airlines jet crashed. Retailers and consumer staples names are flat to down at the moment. The US dollar is weaker today after a softer inflation report (see below), and not surprisingly, commodities are trading higher. WTI crude oil is back up around $57.22/barrel. Copper is up .5% today and 12% on the year, reflecting optimism over a potential trade deal. Copper is sort of a commodity trader’s referendum on the Chinese economy, since China accounts for half of global copper demand. Bonds are mostly higher today as yields tick lower. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.63%, the lowest in the past 6 weeks.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

WAITING FOR THE NEXT CATALYST

WAITING FOR THE NEXT CATALYST

The major US stock market averages opened slightly lower again this morning (Dow -50 pts; SPX -.4%). We’re in a holding pattern with very little news. Healthcare and energy sectors are faring the worst, down more than 1%. Banks and transports are treading water. European markets are poised to close nearly flat, but China’s stock market continues to power ahead on expectations for a trade deal. In fact, CNBC reports President Trump is “pushing hard” to ink a deal in order to improve his chances of re-election. Commodities are slipping today as the dollar strengthens. WTI crude oil dipped slightly to $56.35/barrel. Bonds are trading a bit higher today as yields tick lower. Long term Treasury bonds are faring the best, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) up about .4%. The 10-year Treasury yield, which finally broke out of its tight range last week, is fading back toward 2.69%. That is to be expected—Treasuries should rise when the stock market falls.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

FADING THE TRADE DEAL

FADING THE TRADE DEAL

Stocks gapped up at the open, only to quickly fade. The Dow is currently down 236 points, and the SPX is down 1.1%. All eleven major market sectors are lower, led by healthcare (-1.8%) and tech (-1.4%). As some type of US-China trade deal looks more likely—see below—traders are selling the news. European markets closed mixed but Asian markets rallied overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is up over 20% so far this year. The US dollar is a bit stronger today, and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil rallied back to $56.50/barrel, pretty close to the 2019 high. In fact, most commodity prices are higher this year after suffering declines late last year. Recently, President Trump has said he believes oil prices are too high and the dollar is too strong. I’m not sure why the market is reacting to these remarks, but it does feed day-to-day volatility. Bonds are trading a bit higher as yields tick lower this morning. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.73%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

WAITING ON MAR-A-LAGO

WAITING ON MAR-A-LAGO

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning following the Trump Administration’s announcement that it will further delay a scheduled trade tariff hike on Chinese imports. The Dow is currently up 157 pts and the SPX is up .45%. Cyclicals are leading the way—financials, industrials, tech, materials. And yet, the VIX Index is trading back up around 13.8. That’s not a high level, but one would typically expect the VIX to fall as the stock market rises. Commodities are mostly lower in early trading. WTI crude oil is down 3% today to trade around $55.30/barrel after President Trump complained to OPEC that oil prices are too high. I’m shaking my head in disbelief. If this isn’t proof that oil prices are routinely manipulated by traders and politicians, I don’t know what is. Bonds are trading mostly lower. The 10-year Treasury yield is back up around 2.68%. It has been trading between 2.65% and 2.70% for the last three weeks. As I mentioned last week, interest rate volatility has collapsed. By the way, Warrant Buffett says stocks are incredibly cheap if you think interest rates won’t skyrocket upward. If rates are relatively stable around current levels, stocks are attractive relative to bonds.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

OPTIMISM OVER POTENTIAL TRADE DEAL

Stocks opened sharply higher this morning (Dow +188 pts; SPX +%). Every single week in 2019 has been positive for the US stock market. Today, tech, healthcare and communications services are leading. Only consumer staples and financials are in the red. Commodities are trading higher (except gold). WTI crude oil is up around $57.30/barrel. That’s an amazing turnaround when you consider that it traded down to $42 on Christmas Eve. Once again, Treasury bonds and stocks are moving in tandem. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) is up .7% in early trading. The 10-year Treasury yield is back down around 2.65%. Following extremely high volatility late last year, interest rates have settled down at a low level along with low volatility.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

STOCKS IN A HOLDING PATTERN

STOCKS IN A HOLDING PATTERN

The major stock market averages opened roughly unchanged this morning (Dow & SPX flat). The materials sector is leading the way (+1.4) on higher commodity prices and optimism over a potential US-China trade deal. Semiconductors and gold miners are up 1%+, energy stocks are up over .5%, and banks are up .3%. The healthcare sector is lower after CVS Health (CVS) reported quarterly results. REITs are down nearly 1% in early trading. Commodities are trading higher today. Copper and iron ore—which tend to move on China’s economic outlook—are up 12% and 26%, respectively, so far this year. WTI crude oil is back up to nearly $57/barrel. Bonds are mostly lower in price, higher in yield today. The 10-year Treasury yield is up slightly to 2.65%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

RISING INFLATION SAYS RECESSION NOT IMMINENT

RISING INFLATION SAYS RECESSION NOT IMMINENT

Stocks gapped up at the open this morning, but quickly faded. The Dow is currently up 70 pts and the S&P 500 (SPX) is up .2%. Gains are broad-based, led by energy, semiconductors and transports. Defensive sectors like utilities aren’t really participating. The VIX Index has stabilized below 16 over the last week. Foreign stock markets are acting better—especially China—and that suggests some expectation for resolution of trade concerns. Traders are excited about the fact that the SPX closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time in over two months. The index is now only about 6.5% below its all-time high reached 13 months ago. So risk assets are acting better this year. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is up 4.5% so far in 2019. WTI crude oil is back up over $54/barrel. Iron ore and copper are also climbing. I’ll point out that while falling commodity prices were seen as a very scary sign of falling economic growth in 2018, very few are seeing the commodity recovery as a sign global economic improvement.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

IGNORE WASHINGTON, WATCH EARNINGS

IGNORE WASHINGTON, WATCH EARNINGS

Stocks opened modestly lower this morning (Dow flat; SPX -.25%; Nasdaq -.4%). Exchange trade volume is low. The communications services sector is down 1.5%; REITs are down .75%; energy is off .3% and banks are down .2%. Semiconductors are bucking the trend, however (see below). As I mentioned yesterday, The VIX Index has collapsed back to 15; traders are no longer as fearful, but they’re wondering how far this V-shaped recovery can go before the market needs to step back and consolidate. After all, the SPX has now retraced nearly ¾ of its late 2018 correction. Commodities are trading mostly higher—with the notable exception of gold. WTI crude oil is back up around $54.10/barrel and it looks like the path of least resistance is up. Copper is now up 9% on the year, which is odd since China’s economy is said to be losing steam. Further, iron ore is up around a 2-year high and Barzil’s Vale SA (VALE) just warned of a global shortage. That doesn’t square with the consensus narrative that global economic growth is falling. So either global growth is better than we’ve been hearing, or China is pushing fiscal stimulus in a big way this year. Usually those two move together. Bonds are roughly unchanged this morning. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.50% and 2.69%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

RETURN OF THE FED PUT

RETURN OF THE FED PUT

RETURN OF THE FED PUT

Stocks surged at the open this morning following yesterday’s Fed meeting. The SPX is up .8% and the Nasdaq is up 1.4%. Only the Dow is lagging a bit, down 6 points. The communications services sector shot up nearly 4%. Most other sectors are in the green as well, with the notable exceptions of financials and materials. Oil prices continue to recover, with WTI crude back above $55/barrel. Copper is now up over 5% this month, signaling some optimism over a trade deal with China. Bonds, strangely enough, are uniformly higher as well. The iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is up .8% in early trading, and the SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is up .4%. It is rather unusual to see stocks, commodities and bonds all trading higher on the same day.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 28, 2019

Stocks sank at the open this morning after Nvidia (NVDA) and Caterpillar (CAT) reported quarterly results. The Dow is currently down 340 points and the SPX is down 1%. A number of major market sectors are down more than 1%: tech, communications, industrials, healthcare, and energy. The VIX Index rose back to nearly 20, which shouldn’t cause much panic among traders. After all, we’ve had five consecutive weeks of gains for the stock market, and a pause (or some give-back) should be expected. Commodities are mostly lower today; WTI crude oil is back down around $51.60/barrel. Copper is up about 4% so far this year, which suggests some nascent optimism regarding China’s ability to stabilize their economy with fiscal stimulus. Bonds are trading slightly higher today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields dipped to 2.57% and 2.73%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

EARNINGS & STIMULUS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS & STIMULUS TO THE RESCUE

EARNINGS & STIMULUS TO THE RESCUE

The stock market gapped up at the open today on overseas headlines (see below). The Dow is currently up 126 pts and the SPX is up .24%. Banks are up over 2% in early trading after strong earnings reports from Bank of America (BAC) and Goldman Sachs (GS). Oil fell back under $52/barrel in early trading, but that could easily turn around through the trading day. Bonds are mixed—corporates are modestly higher on the day but Treasuries are selling off as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield has rebounded to 2.73% from 2.55% just 2 weeks ago. Remember, higher long-term Treasury yields will likely be viewed by investors as a positive for the economic outlook.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

EARNINGS SEASON BEGINS

EARNINGS SEASON BEGINS

EARNINGS SEASON BEGINS

The stock market opened lower this morning after some soft Chinese economic data (see below). The Dow is currently down 98 pts and the SPX is off .5%. Ten of eleven market sectors are lower, led by utilities (-3%), tech (-.9%) and materials (-.7%). One of the only groups working today is the banks, up about 1%. European markets closed down by roughly .5% and most of Asia was lower overnight. The dollar is lower after a report showing US exports to China fell flat. WTI crude oil is down about 1% to trade at $51/barrel. Bonds are trading lower today. Junk bonds (-.3%) are following the stock market. Treasuries are slightly lower as well as yields rise. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.71%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.