durable goods orders

MARKET TAKES A BREATHER

Stocks opened down this morning (Dow -67 pts; SPX -.47%). At the sector and industry level, most everything is in the red. Attention is focused on individual companies reporting earnings, some of which are up nicely. European stock markets closed down by about one-third of a percent in the wake of a European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting (see below). Asian markets traded higher overnight. The dollar is flat at the moment, and commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is up about .6% to trade around $56.24/barrel. Bonds are trading broadly lower as yields tick upward. The 10-year US Treasury Note yield is hovering around 2.07%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

WAITING ON THE FED

Stocks opened sharply higher this morning (Dow +99 pts; SPX +.6%), probably because recent economic data (see below) encourages traders to believe the Federal Reserve will soon begin lowering interest rates.

Payroll processor ADP says the US economy generated 102,000 new jobs in the month of June. That’s a lot better than May’s 41,000 but it’s also less than economists were forecasting. The fear, of course, is that hiring activity is slowing, whether because economic growth is slowing or because we’re already at full employment. It’s true that there are more open positions than job seekers.

ISM’s Non-Manufacturing Index, which measures business activity in the service sector, fell to 55.1 in June from 56.9 in the prior month. The decline was a bit more than economists were expecting. And while any reading above 50.0 indicates continued expansion of activity, the index is down around a 2-year low. The index’s key forward-looking new orders component fell to 55.8, the lowest since December 2017. In both manufacturing and service sectors, overall business activity as well as hiring, cost inflation and new orders are slowing. A spokesman for ISM noted the trend and said surveys “reflect mixed sentiment about business conditions and the overall economy. A degree of uncertainty exists due to trade and tariffs.” However, business activity “continues to reflect strength.”

Investors are rightly concerned about the trade war’s impact on business investment. And today we learned that corporate capital spending continued to soften in May. New orders for capital equipment excluding defense/aircraft are up only 1% from year-ago levels. That compares with 7% growth a year ago. Still, Bloomberg points out that conditions aren’t as bad as many anticipated. At least business investment is still showing some growth. Perhaps some underlying resilience can be teased out of this report.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

STOCKS SAG IN FRONT OF HOLIDAY WEEKEND

Stocks gapped up at the open but quickly lost momentum. The Dow is currently up 26 points and the SPX is up .25%. Most sectors are bouncing back a little after yesterday’s rout. But the energy sector continues to struggle under the weight of rising crude inventories. The market is of course wandering aimlessly on Tweets and headlines regarding trade. European markets closed up by about .6% and most of Asia was modestly higher overnight. Commodities are having their worst week so far this year, dented by trade & global growth fears. Copper is down 1.6% today (and nearly 9% so far this month) on China jitters. WTI crude oil is flat, trading around $60/barrel. Bonds aren’t moving much today after strong gains earlier this week. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.32%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

THE UPWARD MARCH CONTINUES

The major stock market indexes opened higher this morning ( Dow +151 pts; SPX +.5%). Consumer discretionary is the leading sector (+1.2%) on strength in its major constituents Amazon (AMZN) & Home Depot (HD). Semiconductor stocks are also up about 1.3%. Most other sectors are participating, save utilities and real estate. Those two groups recently achieved all-time highs and so some give-back is to be expected. WTI crude oil is down a bit to trade around $58.90/barrel after yesterday’s sharp rally. OPEC decided to continue established production cuts through June. Cuts by OPEC late last year are helping to balance global demand and supply even though US producers are steadily ramping production levels. Bonds are trading lower today as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield edged back up to 2.61%. We should perhaps expect some rate volatility around the Fed announcement tomorrow.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

ECONOMIC DATA TO THE RESCUE

Stocks surged at the open this morning on better than expected economic data. The Dow is currently up 187 pts and the SPX is up .9%. Tech and healthcare sectors are leading the way, up over 1% in early trading. Banks, transports and biotechs are particularly strong. The VIX Index sank back toward 13.3, indicating waning investor fears. So far, the trading session can be characterized as broadly risk-on. Commodities are trading mostly higher. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up .5% today, and 6% so far on the year. Crude oil rose to nearly $58/barrel, the highest level since November. Bonds are mostly selling off, with the exception of high-yield (or junk). After dipping to a 2+ month low, the 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.62% today. Since the stock market bottomed on Christmas Eve, the 10-year yield is up only 7 basis points (or .07%). Typically, a huge run-up in stocks is accompanied by a sharp rise in yields. After all, better prospects for stocks usually causes investors to sell bonds. Not this time, and it’s mostly due to the Federal Reserve’s abrupt pause on monetary tightening.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

SOFT ECONOMIC DATA IN FOCUS

SOFT ECONOMIC DATA IN FOCUS

Stocks opened lower today but are clawing back (Dow -63 pts; SPX -.16%). The energy sector is leading to the downside (-1.6%), along with biotechs (-1.4%). Defensives—utilities, consumer staples—are faring better. The VIX Index, down under 15, is suggesting low volatility over the next 30 days, despite the US-China trade deadline in March. The dollar is a bit stronger today and commodities are trading mostly lower. WTI crude oil is down around $56.80/barrel. Copper and iron ore are also in the red. The flavor of the day is clearly risk-off. However, the bond market is down as well. Long-term Treasury bonds, which usually trade inverse to stocks, are down nearly 1% today. The 10-year Treasury note yield shot up to 2.69%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 21, 2018

November 21, 2018

Stocks jumped up at the open this morning (Dow pts; SPX %). The SPX is now retesting its 10/29 correction low. I’d much rather see the index fall at the open and then climb into the close. At the moment, energy stocks are up over 2% on higher oil prices. Consumer discretionary, materials, communications, tech, financials, and industrials are all up over 1%. Only utilities and healthcare sectors are in the red. European markets experienced their own relief rally, with most indexes closing up over 1%. WTI crude oil spiked nearly 4% this morning, proving that day-to-day moves in this commodity represent market manipulation by traders more than they represent changes in supply and demand. By the way, oil fell 30% from 10/3 through 11/20. Bonds are trading lower today as yields rise. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up around 2.91% and the 10-year yield is back up to 3.08%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 4, 2018

October 4, 2018

Stocks sank at the open on Fed/interest rate fears. The Dow is currently down 255 pts and the SPX is down .9%. Bank—and strangely enough utilities—are just about the only groups posing gains in early trading. Consumer discretionary, healthcare, technology and telecommunications sectors are all down more than 1%. The VIX Index is back up around 13.3, as you might expect. European stock markets are down between .8% and 1.2% in today’s session. Most of Asia was down overnight with the notable exception of China, which saw gains of about 1%. The dollar is flat on the day and commodities are mostly lower. Bonds are also selling off as yields rise. The 10-year Treasury yield just climbed to 3.20% for the first time in seven years. And since short-term yields aren’t up as much, the yield curve is the steepest it has been in two months.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 27, 2018

September 27, 2018

Stocks surged at the open (Dow +159 pts; SPX +.66%) following yesterday’s Federal Reserve interest rate hike. I don’t see any good reason for the rally and wouldn’t be surprised to see it selloff this afternoon. At the moment, ten of eleven major market sectors are in the green, led by the newly renamed Communications Services sector (+1.2%). Utilities are also rebounding 1% and the tech sector is up .7%. European markets are also broadly higher by about .5% although Asia was down overnight. After the Fed meeting (see below), the dollar shot up .6% vs. a basket of foreign currencies. That is putting a lid on commodity gains. Copper, gold, and iron ore are lower on the day. WTI crude oil, however, is back up over $72/barrel. Bonds are, not surprisingly, selling off. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back up around 2.96% and 3.07%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 24, 2018

August 24, 2018

Stocks gapped higher this morning (Dow +154 pts; SPX +.6%). Flip-flopping from yesterday’s session, cyclical sectors like materials, energy and tech are leading the way. Utilities and consumer staples sectors are flat. This comes despite impeachment talk in Washington, no apparent progress in trade talks with China, and Fed Chair Powell’s comment that our economic expansion supports the case for further gradual interest rate hikes. The reason for today’s rally appears to be the durable goods report (see below). The VIX Index fell back toward 12 this morning, indicating very little expected volatility over the next 30 days. European stock markets are poised to close about .3% higher but Asia was mixed overnight. The Chinese stock market can’t get out of its own way. The Shanghai Composite Index is down 21% this year. Today, the dollar is weaker and not surprisingly commodities are higher. WTI crude oil is trading up around $69.50/barrel. Copper is up over 2% after having fallen more than 20% this year. Bonds aren’t moving much. The 2-year Treasury yield, which tends to reflect Fed rate hike expectations, has gone nowhere for the last month. In other words, investors don’t believe the Fed will more aggressive with rate hikes. And yet, the difference between the 2-year and 10-year yields has fallen to just 19 basis points (.19%).


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 27, 2018

Stocks opened higher (Dow +130 pts; SPX +.35%) following this week’s overreaction to trade rhetoric from the Trump Administration. Ten of eleven market sectors are in the green, led by energy, industrials and materials. Only healthcare is in the red. The VIX Index is back down to 15.5. European markets are poised to close up about 1% despite continued weakness in Asia overnight. Oil shot back up to $72.60/barrel. Bonds are rising in price as well. The 5-year Treasury yield has fallen back to 2.72% from its May high of 2.94%. The 10-year yield is back down to 2.85%. Go figure.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 26, 2018

Stocks gapped up at the open as investors reacted to better earnings announcements and economic data. The Dow is currently up 147 pts and the SPX is up .65%. Tech, biotech and retailers are leading the way after strong first quarter reports from Facebook (FB), Abbvie (ABBV), and Visa (V). The VIX Index is trading down around 17 and VIX May futures are trading exactly in line. So traders aren’t anticipating any blow-ups over the next month. WTI crude oil is down slightly to trade around $68/barrel. Higher oil prices boosted first quarter profits for Royal Dutch Shell, and traders are getting much more positive on the energy sector. Bonds are taking a breather after selling off hard over the last couple of weeks. While the stock market is roughly flat year-to-date, bonds are down across the board. Long-term Treasuries (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) are down 6.6% on a total return basis. Junk bonds (SPDR High Yield Bond ETF) are down 1.1%. Intermediate high-grade corporate bonds (iShares IG Corporate Bond ETF) are down 4.5%. That’s what happens when interest rates reset to a higher level. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 4, 2018

Stocks gapped down at the open after China announced the expected retaliatory trade tariffs on US goods. The Dow is currently down 49 pts and the SPX is flat. The Dow initially opened down 1.5% but is paring losses, probably because this headline shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Don’t be surprised, therefore, if we end the session in the green. At the moment, consumer staples, consumer discretion and telecoms are faring the best. Industrials and energy sectors are performing the worst, down over .8%. The VIX Index is up to bit to trade around 22.3. VIX April futures, at 21.5, show backwardation. Oil is down a bit after a higher than expected crude inventory report from Cushing, OK. WTI crude is now trading at $63.30/barrel. Most other commodities (except gold) are down as well. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.60% and 2.78%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 23, 2018

The major stock market averages are slightly higher in early trading (Dow +34 pts; SPX flat) following yesterday’s rout. Energy (+1.3%) and industrials (+.7%) are leading the way. Financials, however, aren’t responsive. Some individual stocks are bouncing hard; Raytheon (RTN) is up 3% after a deal to sell missile defense systems to Saudi Arabia. A very strong durable goods report wasn’t enough to move the market much. The VIX Index spiked to 23 yesterday but faded to 22 this morning. WTI crude oil is trading up around $65.30/barrel, back to the high end of the trading range. Bonds are slightly lower today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are at 2.62% and 2.84%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 4, 2017

The major stock market averages opened higher this morning (Dow +225 pts; SPX +.57%). Over the weekend the US Senate narrowly passed its tax reform bill, clearing the way for a conference committee to iron out differences with the House’s own bill. Value is performing better than growth today. Banks and telecoms are up over 2% in early trading. Retailers and transports are up between 1.5% and 2.5%. None of these groups has led the SPX this year, so we’re seeing a bit of catch-up. The tech sector, up over 30% this year, is taking a breather. European markets are poised to close up over 1% and Asia was mixed overnight. The dollar is stronger against a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is down 1% to trade at $57.70/barrel. Shorter-term bonds are selling off this morning. The 5-year Treasury yield rose to 2.15%, the highest since the spring of 2011. The 2-year Treasury yield is up around a nine year high. Longer term bonds, on the other hand, are pretty flat. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.39%. So the yield curve is flattening again and that’s a caution flag. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 22, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow -51 pts; SPX -.09%). Gold miners, retailers, transports, and biotechs are all trading higher. On the other hand, semiconductors, banks, real estate and utilities are in the red. So there’s no risk-on or risk-off pattern. The VIX Index is going nowhere, still trading under 10. Asia was up overnight. In fact, the Nikkei is now up over 23% for the year and the Hang Seng is up 35%. The UK government just cut its economic growth forecast to 1.5% from the previous 2.0% forecast, but for some reason I’m not seeing much of a market reaction. The dollar is weaker against a basket of foreign currencies, and commodities are predictably trading higher. Gold, copper, iron ore and oil are all in the green. WTI crude oil is up 1.7% to about $57.80/barrel. Bonds are firming a bit after a two-week selloff. The 5-year Treasury yield is back down to 2.07% and the 10-year yield edged down to 2.34%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 25, 2017

The major stock market averages gapped down at the open (Dow -105 pts; SPX -.9%). Telecoms, utilities, and industrials are leading the market lower, but all eleven market sectors are in the red. Not surprisingly, the VIX Index jumped to 12.4, the highest level since early September. The dollar is weaker today against a basket of foreign currencies but commodities aren’t getting a corresponding life. WTI crude oil is down .5% to $52.20/barrel. Despite weakness in the stock market, the bond market isn’t trading higher. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.06% (highest since early March) and the 10-year yield rose to 2.44% (highest since late March). Rates are clearly moving higher and stock investors are a little spooked by it. Rick Rieder of Blackrock says despite recent economic data, inflation is rising because the economy is doing better. But he’s not that worried that rates will move dramatically higher. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 27, 2017

Stocks opened slightly higher this morning (Dow +5 pts; SPX +.11%). Financials, especially banks, and semiconductors are up over 1% in early trading. On the other hand, gold miners, utilities and consumer staples are down about 1%. European markets are poised to close up about .3% today. The dollar is a bit stronger against a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is trading up around $52.13/barrel. We haven’t seen a 52 handle on oil since April. Bonds are selling off today as interest rates tick higher. The 5-year Treasury note yield is back up to 1.90%, a two-month high. The 10-year Treasury note yield is up around 2.29% and the next stop is probably 2.39%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 5, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning but quickly recovered (Dow -15 pts; SPX flat). The energy sector is down 1.5% as oil prices pull back for the first time in eight trading sessions. Tech, on the other hand, is the best-performing sector with semiconductors (+1.3%) leading the way. That said, over the last week or so “value” sectors like energy and financials have begun to outpace tech. So we’re seeing a bit of a sector rotation. The dollar is slightly higher on the day as commodities fall. WTI crude oil is down over 3% to trade around $45.40/barrel. Iron ore and copper are also down at least 1% today. Bonds are mostly unchanged after selling off over the past week. The 5-year Treasury yield has backed up to 1.92% and the 10-year yield is hovering around 2.34%. This is a big deal since all investors are watching the bond market like a hawk for any signs of accelerating inflation expectations. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 26, 2017

The major stock market averages climbed briefly at the open, but quickly turned around. The Dow is up 40 pts, the SPX is up .2% and the Nasdaq is flat. “Waffling” has become a consistent pattern throughout June, according to CNBC’s Jim Cramer. “The market can’t make up its mind.” In addition, we’re seeing huge dispersion of returns from sector to sector, and from stock to stock.  For example, healthcare is screaming higher (+6%) this month, while energy has sagged .5%. And even within the energy sector, Chevron (CVX) is up 1.3% this month but Schlumberger (SLB) is down 5%. Mr. Cramer rightly points out that “nothing is trading in unison.” The VIX Index continues to trade near record lows (below 10 today), but while the SPX looks like it is simply treading water, there is a lot going on under the hood. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.