existing home sales

NOTHING TO SEE HERE, CHECK BACK TOMORROW

Stocks fell at the open this morning but quickly recovered. The Dow and SPX are currently flat. Defensive, interest rate sensitive sectors (utilities, real estate) are down in early trading. The energy sector, on the other hand, is up over 1.8% on higher oil prices. Trade volume is pretty light coming off of a holiday weekend. European markets are still closed for Easter. The stock market looks kind of tired after a huge recovery rally in the first quarter. In other words, don’t expect a lot of excitement today. Earnings will provide plenty of excitement later this week. WTI crude oil shot up to $65.50/barrel, the highest since the end of October last year. That’s a direct result of the Trump Administration saying Iran’s trade sanction exemption will expire on May 2. A White House statement said the decision “is intended to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero, denying the regime its principal source of revenue.” Bonds are trading a bit lower as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield is back up to 2.58%. The “yield curve” (that is, the difference between the 10-year and 2-year rates) is still pretty narrow and fragile. In fact, the spread is just .19% and has been in the range of .10% and .20% for the last 5 months. Should it break convincingly above .20%, that will likely be viewed as a bullish signal for traders.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

SENTIMENT U-TURN ON BOND MARKET CONCERNS

The major stock market averages rolled over this morning. The Dow is currently down 379 pts and the SPX is off by 1.7%. The Nasdaq is down 2.1%. Energy, financials and materials—the sectors that tend to do poorly when interest rates drop—are down by more than 2% in early trading. On the other hand utilities, real estate and consumer staples—defensive sectors that do well in slower growth, lower-rate markets—are in the green. European stock markets closed down more than 1.5%, although most of Asia was in the green overnight. Commodities are mostly lower today. WTI crude oil backed down to $58.50/barrel. The bond market is rising as yields fall. Clearly, some capital is draining out of stock and flowing into bonds today. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.43%, the lowest since December 2017.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 19, 2018

Stocks surged at the open this morning, but who knows how the session with end? The Dow is currently up 175 pts and the SPX is up .68%. A few market sectors are up about 1%: energy, financials, materials. Most everything is trading higher, save gold miners and semiconductors. European markets are up about .3% to .9%, although Asia was mixed overnight. WTI crude oil, which has fallen out of bed since early October, is up 3% to about $47.65/barrel. OPEC says it will reduce production by about 1.2 million barrels per day but those cuts won’t go into effect until next month. At the moment, production in the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia is near record levels. Bonds are trading modestly higher in front of the Fed meeting today (see below). Since early November, bonds have done very well and that of course means interest rates have fallen. The 2-year Treasury note tends to move along with expectations for Fed rate hikes, and since November 8th the 2-year yield has declined to 2.66% from 3.1%. That probably means bond traders are predicting a pause in monetary tightening.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 21, 2018

November 21, 2018

Stocks jumped up at the open this morning (Dow pts; SPX %). The SPX is now retesting its 10/29 correction low. I’d much rather see the index fall at the open and then climb into the close. At the moment, energy stocks are up over 2% on higher oil prices. Consumer discretionary, materials, communications, tech, financials, and industrials are all up over 1%. Only utilities and healthcare sectors are in the red. European markets experienced their own relief rally, with most indexes closing up over 1%. WTI crude oil spiked nearly 4% this morning, proving that day-to-day moves in this commodity represent market manipulation by traders more than they represent changes in supply and demand. By the way, oil fell 30% from 10/3 through 11/20. Bonds are trading lower today as yields rise. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up around 2.91% and the 10-year yield is back up to 3.08%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 20, 2018

he major stock market averages gapped up again at the open. The Dow is currently up 240 pts and the SPX is up .68%. Ten of eleven sectors are in the green, led by tech (+1%), materials (+1%) and consumer staples (+1%). Only energy is stalling. The VIX Index just fell back under 12 despite the fact that we’ve had no good news on the trade war front. European stock markets are poised to close up nearly 1%. Asia was mixed overnight. The dollar is falling against a basket of foreign currencies and that’s allowing emerging markets equities to continue yesterday’s rally. Commodities are mixed today. WTI crude oil is unchanged at $70.95/barrel. Copper and gold are also flat on the session. Bonds are mixed after a 3-week selloff. The 5-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.95% today. The 10-year yield is unchanged at 3.06%. Junk bonds have been performing better than Treasuries or investment grade corporates all year, and today is no exception.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 22, 2018

August 22, 2018

tocks opened mixed this morning following yesterday’s brief run to all-time highs. The Dow and S&P 500 (SPX) are flat at the moment. It took more than 6 months to fully recover from last winter’s 10% correction. But here we are. The energy sector is up more than 1% for the second consecutive trading session. Other cyclical sectors like consumer discretion and technology are seeing a little bit of momentum. On the other hand, utilities, real estate and consumer staples are in the red again. So we’re seeing mini rotation away from interest rate sensitive stocks and back toward cyclical growth stocks. The VIX Index—a key measure of investor fear—is down again today to trade around 12.2. European stock markets are poised to close in green by about .2% after rallying yesterday. Commodities are mixed today but over the past week have begun to recover. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is bottoming after a 10% correction. WTI crude oil is trading back up around $67.40/barrel (remember, it started the month at $74). With the market action described above, you’d be forgiven for thinking that bonds must be selling off, but that’s not the case. Bond yields are mostly unchanged. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.72% and 2.83%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 23, 2018

Stocks are mixed in today’s trading session (Dow -14 pts; SPX +.16%). The financial sector is up over 1% on a positive move in the yield curve. Tech and healthcare sectors are also modestly higher, but most everything else is flat or down. The VIX Index is up modestly to trade around 13.5 and VIX August futures are down around 14.2. So the VIX isn’t predicting any increase in market volatility over the next 30-60 days. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up .25% this morning, but is still down nearly 5% so far this year. WTI crude is back up around $68.60/barrel and has been trending upward over the last 12 months. But copper, gold and many agricultural commodities are down on the year. Bonds are selling off a bit today as yields head higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up to 2.81% and the 10-year yield is up around 2.95%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 24, 2018

Stocks sank at the open this morning after President Trump canceled the nuclear summit with North Korea. The Dow is down 190 pts and the SPX is down .47%. Wow, the stock market is doing a terrible job of ignoring day-to-day political rhetoric. It fell head-over-heels for Mnuchin’s overly optimistic messaging on the China trade negotiations, and now it feigns total surprise that the North Korean summit may not happen. There are a few groups trading higher today. Utilities are up for the second consecutive day, and telecoms are trying to rebound from a 3-month slide. Industrials are also up modestly because the dollar is a bit weaker. Commodities are mixed in early trading. Gold is up 1%, not surprisingly. WTI crude oil is down 1% to $71.10/barrel. Bonds are trading up today—and over the last week—as yields dip. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 2.80% and 2.96%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 23, 2018

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow flat; SPX +.15%). Most major market sectors are up slightly, led by consumer discretionary, healthcare and telecoms. The materials sector is sagging a bit as commodities pull back. The dollar is moving higher on commodity weakness and higher interest rates. Following a very strong two-week run, WTI crude oil is falling back toward $68/barrel. Aluminum prices fell sharply after the US Treasury softened sanctions against a specific Russian aluminum producer. Bonds are selling off today. The 5-year Treasury yield shot up to 2.82%, an 8 ½-year high. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.98%, a four-year high. Bond traders are bothered by the Federal Reserve’s apparent staunch commitment to raising rates despite the recent 10% stock market correction coupled with tame inflation readings. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 22, 2018

Stocks opened sharply lower this morning (Dow -366 pts; SPX -1.3%) on trade war fears. It looks like the SPX wants to re-test its recent correction low. The tech sector is under pressure again today (-2%) as a result of Facebook’s (FB) user account data leak incident, which made its way back into headlines on Monday. Traders are using this as an excuse to take profits across the entire sector. Make no mistake, fundamentals are in the back seat today and traders are taking the lead. That’s why volatility is exploding so quickly. Everything could turn on a dime, however, so don’t be surprised if stocks end the session in the green. Most sectors are down over 1% in early trading. Only consumer staples, real estate and utilities are in the green. European markets are poised to close down about 2% and Asia was mostly lower overnight. Emerging markets stocks are getting hammered (-3%). WTI crude oil is down 1% to $64.50/barrel. Bonds are performing well as yields plunge. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 2.61% and 2.81%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 21, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher this morning (Dow +126 pts; SPX +.55%). Gold miners, banks and transports are rebounding +1%, while defensive sectors like real estate, telecom and consumer staples are down. The VIX Index is trading down around 18.5, which is good news. There’s still a chance that the market dips to re-test the correction low of 2/9, but thus far stocks are clearly in recovery mode. WTI crude oil is down modestly around $61.50/barrel. Last week, the Baker Hughes Rig Count climbed by 7 to a total of 798 active drilling rigs. That’s 201 higher than year-ago levels. US oil production has reached a new record of 10.2mil barrels per day. Bonds are slightly lower as yields march gradually higher. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are up to 2.65% and 2.90%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 20, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow +16 pts; SPX flat). Utilities and real estate are down for the second straight session, and consumer staples about-faced to fall .7%. Telecoms are the best performing sector at the moment, up 1.5%, likely because they will really benefit from lower corporate taxes. Energy, materials and industrials are also trading higher. European stock markets will close in the red and Asia was mostly down overnight. The dollar is a bit weaker today against a basket of foreign currencies and commodities are not surprisingly trading higher. WTI crude oil is up slightly to trade around $57.80/barrel. Bonds are again selling off, with yields higher. And again, this is probably the biggest story of the day. The 5-year Treasury yield spiked to 2.24% and the 10-year yield rose to 2.49%, breaking out of its recent trading range. Importantly, the yield curve has steepened over the last two trading sessions. That is, the difference between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury note yields has increased from 51 basis points to 62 basis points. When longer term rates rise faster than short term rates, it is a signal of rising inflation expectations. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 21, 2017

Stocks gapped up at the open (Dow +175 pts; SPX +.68%). Tech and healthcare are the best-performing sectors in early trading (up over 1%). Telecoms and banks, however, aren’t participating. The VIX is retreating toward 9.8. European markets are poised to close up about .5% and Asia traded higher overnight. The dollar is unchanged and most commodities are trading higher. Copper is up about 1%, recovering from a recent pullback. WTI crude oil is up a bit to trade around $56.70/barrel. Shorter-term bonds are selling off again as yields head higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 2.10% (highest since mid-March). Strangely, longer-term yields are not moving today. The 10-year Treasury is unchanged at 2.36%. And that means the yield curve is flattening. Since November 10th, we’ve seen short rates rise while long rates remained about flat. This bears watching because it implies that bond traders believe the Fed will continue hiking short rates even though long-term inflation expectations aren’t rising.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 20, 2017

Stocks are mixed in early trading (Dow +16 pts; SPX flat; Nasdaq -.24%). We’ve seen a rotation in the last couple of weeks away from defensive sectors (i.e. utilities, consumer staples) and toward cyclicals (industrials, financials, energy, materials). This seems to be driven by a rebound in interest rates & oil; it’s hard to say how long that will last. This morning, transports are up 1.5%, biotechs are up .7%, and energy stocks are up about .6%. We are seeing some uncharacteristic weakness in semiconductors after Apple (AAPL) admitted lower pre-orders for the new iPhone 8 because consumers are waiting for the iPhone X. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 22, 2017

Stocks opened mixed after yesterday’s selloff. At the moment, the Dow is down 27 pts and the SPX is up .1%. The Nasdaq is up .25%. Biotechs, semiconductors and transports are bouncing back. But utilities are also higher and that suggests investors are looking to position a little more defensively for the near-term. The VIX Index, which jumped to 12.5 yesterday, is back down to 12. VIX April futures are trading at 13.6. So traders are clearly not panicking in the wake of yesterday’s surprise dip. The dollar (and most commodities) are a little weaker this morning. WTI crude is down 1% to $47.70/barrel and we’re hearing constant chatter about rising US oil production, which will add to global over-supply. Bonds are up modestly in price, down in yield. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields ticked down to 1.94% and 2.40%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 22, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow +3 pts; SPX -.18%). The Dow very briefly touched a record intra-day high of 20,766. Gold miners and transports are down more than 1%. Energy stocks are also lower in early trading. There are a few stand-outs (TOL +5%, AET +1.4%, FB +1.8%, DOW +3.6%) but most stocks are taking a breather. Most commodities are also lower today. WTI crude oil is down 1.4% to $53.50/barrel. Bonds prices are mostly unchanged. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.90% and 2.42%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

January 30, 2017

Stocks sank at the open (Dow -166 pts, SPX -.9%). All eleven market sectors are lower, led by energy (-1.9%), materials (-1.3%), and financials (-1.2%). Biotechs are also down over 1%. The VIX Index is up sharply to trade around 12.3. Usually, stock declines coincide with VIX spikes. The dollar is about flat today but commodities are down almost across the board. WTI oil is down to $52.70/barrel. Bonds are rising in price, with yields lower. The 5-year Treasury yield is down to 1.93% and the 10-year is trading at 2.47%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 22, 2016

Stocks opened sharply higher this morning (Dow +112 pts; SPX +.5%). All eleven major market sectors are higher in early trading. Gold miners, transports, REITs, mid-caps and emerging markets stocks are up over 1%. Bloomberg is calling this a “Fed-Inspired Rally” because the FOMC yet again decided not to raise short-term interest rates. So the dollar is a bit weaker and commodities are higher. WTI crude oil is up to $46/barrel and copper is up 1.3% on the day. European markets are poised to close up 1-2% and Asia was higher overnight. Bonds are higher as yields fall today. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are back down to 1.16% and 1.62%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 24, 2016

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -44 pts; SPX -.2%). The Nasdaq is flat. All ten major market sectors are in the red, led by utilities, telecoms and materials. Gold mining stocks are particularly hard hit (-3%) after a disappointing earnings report from Glencore. Banks, retailers and biotech are actually up modestly. So today is sort of counter-trend for 2016. The VIX Index is trading up to 13 and VIX September futures are up to 15. So a modest increase in expected volatility in the next couple of months. WTI crude oil dropped to $/barrel this morning and the Bloomberg Commodity Index is down .8% in early trading. Bonds are little changed today, with the 5- and 10-year Treasury yields at 1.14% and 1.56%, respectively. Corporate bonds (and junk bonds in particular) are seeing a bid this month, which, by the way, argues for a better economy. The iShares Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) is up 2% so far this month. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 21, 2016

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -17 pts; SPX flat). Energy, healthcare and consumer discretion are higher but just about every other sector is modestly lower. The VIX has fallen flat around 1 12, indicating low expected volatility over the next 30 days. The dollar is flat and commodities are higher on the day.  WTI crude oil is down a bit to $45.40/barrel. Bonds are lower again this morning with yields moving higher. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are up to 1.14% and 1.60%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.