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STOCKS SAGGING ON SPURIOUS JOBS REPORT

STOCKS SAGGING ON SPURIOUS JOBS REPORT

Stocks gapped down at the open after a disappointing jobs report (see below). The Dow is currently off 148 pts and the SPX is down .77%. The Nasdaq has now been down for five straight sessions. The worst-performing groups include energy (-2.4%), transports (-1%), and healthcare (-.8%). In fact, transports have been down 11 consecutive sessions. Asian markets started the downshift last night. After a massive recovery rally this year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 4% in the overnight session. As I’ve mentioned, all of this is to expected. We need some consolidation after a sharp rally in stocks. Commodities are also in the red today, led by oil. WTI crude collapsed back to $55/barrel today for no good reason. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Junk bonds are down about .3% today. Long-term Treasuries are up slightly. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen back to the bottom of its six-week trading range at 2.64%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

CROSSCURRENTS GIVE THE FED PAUSE

CROSSCURRENTS GIVE THE FED PAUSE

Stocks opened lower today, but quickly recovered. The Dow and SPX are currently flat. Financials, energy and tech sectors are in the green but most everything else is slightly lower. Copper, iron ore and oil are strong today. WTI crude oil is back up around $55.75/barrel. Copper is now up something like 13% on the year, and that’s usually a sign of economic strength overseas. Strangely, bonds are trading mostly higher as well. Long-term Treasury bonds are up about .2% and junk bonds are up nearly that much. The 10-year Treasury yield fell back to 2.65%. Since the beginning of February, interest rates have been treading water with very little volatility.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 18, 2018

December 18, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow 243 pts; SPX .5%) in an attempt to recover from yesterday’s rout. A number of market sectors are up about 1%: industrials, real estate, materials, communications services and consumer discretionary. Energy stocks are down following oil prices. WTI crude oil fell to a 15-month low after a report that global oil production is rising. European stock markets closed down about .7% and Asian markets were down overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is down 22% so far this year in local currency terms (or about 26% in dollar terms). Commodities are mixed in early trading. As mentioned, WTI crude oil is down around $47/barrel (down 36% since early October. Consensus Wall Street opinion is that global oil demand is just fine, but supply is temporarily too high. As I’ve mentioned before, there is a lot of room for traders and governments to manipulate oil prices. Bonds are mixed in early trading. Treasury bonds are rising but junk bonds are falling in price. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are back down to 2.67% and 2.83%. Remember last summer when traders were freaking out over rising interest rates? They feared higher mortgage & auto loan rates and worried incessantly that the Federal Reserve would have to keep hiking rates to keep pace. Well, those concerns seem in the distant past now. We’re all wondering what the bond market’s massive volatility is trying to tell us.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 20, 2018

November 20, 2018

Stocks gapped down quickly at the open, then began to pare losses. The Dow is currently down 385 pts and the SPX is down 1.1%. Industrial, energy and financial sectors are down about 2% in early trading. But all eleven sectors are losing ground. The major stock market indexes are clearly in the process of testing their October 29th lows, and are shaking out the weak hands. European markets fell more than 1% in today’s session and Asian markets were down overnight. China’s Shanghai Composite Index is now down 25% year-to-date in local currency terms. Gold is slightly higher today, although still down 6% year-to-date. WTI crude oil plunged 5% to trade at $54.40/barrel, the lowest since early November 2017. Oil was trading in the mid $70s just six weeks ago. Remember, President Trump tricked the Russians and Saudis into raising oil production levels when he threatened to impose and oil embargo on Iran. He subsequently declined to follow through on that threat and now the world is temporarily oversupplied. Bonds are trading slightly lower today. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 2.87% and 3.06%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

October 17, 2018

October 17, 2018

Stocks fell at the open but quickly turned around. At the moment, the Dow is flat and the SPX is up .13%. The market continues to flip-flop from one day to the next. For the most part, cyclical sectors—energy, tech, discretionary, materials—are leading to the downside while defensives—telecom, healthcare and staples—are trading higher. And wonder of all wonders, the financial sectors is actually showing some signs of life (+1.3%). European stock markets closed down about .5% whereas Asia was mostly higher overnight. Japan’s Nikkei, by the way, has clawed back to flat for the year. Commodities are mixed in early trading. After climbing to $76/barrel early this month, WTI crude oil has fallen back to $70/barrel. Bonds are modestly lower in price, and less risky Treasury bonds are unchanged while corporate bonds are in the red. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury note yields are hovering around 3.02% and 3.16%, respectively. Year-to-date, the entire bond market has been a loser because inflation and interest rates have trended gradually higher.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

September 19, 2018

September 19, 2018

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +203 pts; SPX +.17%; Nasdaq flat). Banks, basic materials producers and emerging markets stocks are up over 1% in early trading. On the other hand, utilities and FAANG stocks are trading lower. European markets are poised to close up about .5% and Asia was up over 1% last night. The dollar is flat against a basket of foreign currencies today and commodities are mostly higher. WTI crude oil is up around $70.70/barrel. After falling more than 20% this year, copper prices have retraced about 3% this month. Bonds are selling off as yields head higher. The 5-year Treasury yield is back up to 2.96%, a level it hasn’t seen in 10 years. The 10-year Treasury yield is up around 3.08%, toward the high end of its 7-year range. Bond traders are clearly anticipating two more interest rate hikes by the Fed this year, but according to Bloomberg, traders are starting to price in a Fed pause in mid-2019. That’s because eventually, Fed tightening can choke off economic growth by making lending too restrictive.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

July 18, 2018

Stocks opened a bit higher this morning (Dow +63 pts; SPX +.13%). Defensive sectors—utilities, real estate, consumer staples—are down today. The financial sector, on the other hand, is up 1.5% after a strong earnings report from Morgan Stanley (see below). The industrials sectors is up over 1% on strength in the transports. Semiconductor equipment manufacturers are jumping today after a positive earnings announcement from ASML Holdings (ASML). Remember, this group has been smashed on trade tariff fears. European stock markets are poised to close up about .7%, but outside of Japan most of Asia was down overnight. Commodities are mostly lower today; WTI crude oil is trading down around $67.95/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged, continuing the month-long trend of extremely low volatility in the bond market.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

June 19, 2018

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -281 pts; SPX -.55%) mostly on trade war jitters. Industrials and materials—two sectors heavily influenced by global trade—are down about 2%; tech is down about 1.1%. The defensives—consumer staples, utilities, telecom—are trading higher in today’s mini sector rotation. The VIX Index jumped up to nearly 14 and VIX July futures are trading up around 14.4. European stock markets look to close down about 1% and Asia was very negative overnight. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.8% and is now down over 11% year-to-date. Most commodities—including gold—are down today. WTI crude oil fell 1.4% to $64.90/barrel on rumors that Saudi Arabia and Russia would like to remove OPEC oil production limits. Of course, we know that oil prices are routinely manipulated day-to-day by rumors and we know that Saudi would much rather have oil up around $80 than down around $60. Bonds are trading higher this morning in response to the stock selloff. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields dipped to 2.76% and 2.89%, respectively. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 16, 2018

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow flat; SPX +.17%). Cyclical sectors—consumer discretion, materials, tech, industrials—are leading the way. Utilities and real estate, however, are extending declines. Emerging markets are up 1% (now flat on the year). The VIX Index is trading back down under 14. Trade volume is light. The dollar is up again today and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is down .4% to trade around $71/barrel. And by the way, the DOE says total US oil production is up around 10.7 million barrels per day—a record high. Bonds are selling off again. The 5-year Treasury yield is up around 2.92% and the 10-year yield is up around 3.08%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 23, 2018

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow flat; SPX +.15%). Most major market sectors are up slightly, led by consumer discretionary, healthcare and telecoms. The materials sector is sagging a bit as commodities pull back. The dollar is moving higher on commodity weakness and higher interest rates. Following a very strong two-week run, WTI crude oil is falling back toward $68/barrel. Aluminum prices fell sharply after the US Treasury softened sanctions against a specific Russian aluminum producer. Bonds are selling off today. The 5-year Treasury yield shot up to 2.82%, an 8 ½-year high. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.98%, a four-year high. Bond traders are bothered by the Federal Reserve’s apparent staunch commitment to raising rates despite the recent 10% stock market correction coupled with tame inflation readings. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 17, 2018

Stocks surged at the open, following yesterday’s gains. The Dow is currently up 256 pts and the SPX is up 1%. Consumer discretionary, industrials, tech, materials and real estate sectors are all up over 1% in early trading. In fact, all eleven major market sectors are in the green. The VIX Index, which measures investor fear, is down around 15.6, signaling that the stock market correction is resolving. Commodities are mostly higher on the day. WTI crude oil, recently boosted by geopolitical tensions, is trading down modestly to $66.11/barrel. Short-term bonds are selling off, and yields are resuming their march higher. The 2-year Treasury yield is trading up to 2.40% (a fresh 9 ½ year high), and the 5-year is up around 2.69%. Meanwhile, longer-term bonds aren’t moving much. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.83%. And of course, that means the yield curve (difference between short and long rates) is flattening again. The Fed seems intent on two more rate hikes this year, which affects the short end. But inflation expectations have stagnated, and that affects the long end.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

March 16, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher today (Dow +104 pts; SPX +.36%). Nearly all sectors are in the green, led by energy (+1%), telecom (+.65%) and financials (+.7%). Only tech is trading slightly lower. It looks like traders are putting aside for the moment chaos as the White House. European markets are poised to close up about .7% although most of Asia was down overnight. The VIX Index is trading down toward 15.3. The dollar is stronger today after some better than expected economic data. WTI crude oil opened roughly unchanged but suddenly, and unexpectedly, spiked to $62.00/barrel. Bonds are falling in price, rising in yield. That makes sense alongside a stronger dollar. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are up around 2.63% and 2.84%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 16, 2018

The major stock market averages opened higher again today (Dow +150 pts; SPX +.6%). Thus far, the SPX has retraced about 60% of the damage done in the recent correction. Today, telecoms, healthcare and utilities are the best performers. This is really just catch-up as interest rates fall back a bit. The VIX Index is down around 18, providing a bit more confidence that the correction is really over. The dollar is stronger today (but still down 3% on the year). WTI crude oil is up around $61.70/barrel. Remember, a weaker dollar usually helps commodity prices. Bonds are trading higher as yields tick down. By the way, the 10-year Treasury yield hit 2.91% yesterday, the highest since Jan. 2014. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 19, 2017

Stocks opened lower this morning (Dow -38 pts; SPX -.16%). Exchange trade volume is very light as investors wait for congressional votes on the tax bill. Real estate & utilities are down the most (roughly 1%) as bond yields head higher. Tech is also weak, having lost some momentum over the past two weeks. Consumer staples and energy are trading higher. WTI crude oil is up modestly to $57.25/barrel. Bonds are selling off as yields tick higher. The 5-year Treasury yield soared to 2.21% today, the highest since April 2011. The 10-year Treasury note yield ticked up to 2.44%, the highest since March of this year. This is probably the only story that matters today (sorry Bitcoin). According to Bloomberg, an official with the European Central Bank said monetary policy discussions in Europe “are moving to the future use of interest rates rather than asset purchases to regulate the economy.” In other words, they could be reducing or removing quantitative easing some time in 2018. That immediately pushed up interest rates in Europe and is likely the proximate cause of higher US yields today.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 16, 2017

Stocks gapped up at the open today (Dow +59 pts; SPX +.3%). The Nasdaq is up .4%. Nine of eleven market sectors are higher, led by materials (+.7%) and consumer discretionary (+.5%). Only energy and telecom are in the red. The transports, which have really lagged this year, are up .6% today (and up over 3% in the last week). The VIX Index is back down under 12. The dollar is slightly stronger on the day, but still down over 7% so far this year against a basket of foreign currencies. That’s likely the due to lower inflation. Most commodities are slightly higher; WTI crude oil is trading up .5% to $47.80/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged today. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 2.26%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

April 17, 2017

Stocks opened higher morning (Dow 102 pts; SPX .5%). Most market sectors and industries are in the green, led by real estate, banks, transports and semiconductors. Today the market is ignoring North Korea, the French election, Syria, etc. The VIX Index  is backing down to 15. The dollar and commodities are slightly lower today. The exception is copper, up 1% after some better-than-expected economic news out of China. US Bonds are continuing to rally as yields head lower. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are down to 1.76% and 2,23%, respectively. Those yields are 5-month lows. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 16, 2017

Stocks are flat in early trading (Dow -7 pts; SPX -.14%). Real estate is leading the way, up 1%. Tech, telecom, materials and utilities are modestly higher. The rest of the landscape is down a bit. By the way, the Trump Rally (which began the day after the election) has now eclipsed 10% for the SPX. The dollar is a bit weaker today and commodities are mixed. WTI crude oil is trading flat at about $53.20/barrel. Bonds are slightly higher on the day. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.96% and the 10-year Treasury is trading at 2.47%. On average, economic data are improving and that has pushed rates up over the last week. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

December 16, 2016

The major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow +28 pts; SPX flat). Real estate and utilities are the best performing sectors, up over 1%. Financials, consumer discretion and materials are lower. So we’re seeing a risk-off trend today. The VIX Index is down 3% to 12.4, suggesting little fear on the part of investors. The dollar is flat today but has been trending upward (+4.5% this year). And yet, commodities are mostly higher on the year. That could possibly signal better global economic growth overcoming the currency headwind. At the moment, WTI crude oil is up to nearly $52/barrel. Bonds are flattish. The 5-year and 10-year Treasuries are yielding 2.07% and 2.60%. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 17, 2016

Stocks opened higher this morning (Dow +7 pts; SPX +.35%). Consumer discretion and financials are leading the market higher. Materials, real estate and consumer staples are lower. By the way, over the last couple of months we’ve seen a change in sector leadership. The defensive sectors (utilities, telecom, staples) are losing momentum while the cyclicals (industrials, financials, tech) have been gaining momentum. The dollar continues to strengthen and interest rates are again on the rise. WTI crude oil is trading flat around $45.50/barrel. Copper and iron ore continue to surge higher, driven by stability in China and rising expectations for fiscal stimulus under President-elect Trump. Today, the 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are up around 1.69% and 2.25%, respectively. Rates are back to where they were at year-end 2015. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

August 23, 2016

he major stock market averages surged at the open (Dow +44 pts; SPX +.38%). Nine of ten market sectors are in the green, led by materials. Semiconductors continue to power ahead (SOX Index is up nearly 21% this year). Energy is bouncing back as oil moves higher. European stock markets are poised to close up 1% and Asia was mostly up overnight. WTI crude is trading up around $48/barrel on nothing more than speculation that OPEC will freeze oil production at current levels. Bonds aren’t moving much this morning. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are trading at 1.14% and 1.55%, respectively. The VXTLT (volatility index for long-term Treasuries) is down around 12, which suggests very little volatility in long bonds in the next 30 days. 


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.