median home price

THE UPWARD MARCH CONTINUES

The major stock market indexes opened higher this morning ( Dow +151 pts; SPX +.5%). Consumer discretionary is the leading sector (+1.2%) on strength in its major constituents Amazon (AMZN) & Home Depot (HD). Semiconductor stocks are also up about 1.3%. Most other sectors are participating, save utilities and real estate. Those two groups recently achieved all-time highs and so some give-back is to be expected. WTI crude oil is down a bit to trade around $58.90/barrel after yesterday’s sharp rally. OPEC decided to continue established production cuts through June. Cuts by OPEC late last year are helping to balance global demand and supply even though US producers are steadily ramping production levels. Bonds are trading lower today as yields tick higher. The 10-year Treasury yield edged back up to 2.61%. We should perhaps expect some rate volatility around the Fed announcement tomorrow.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

A LITTLE HELP FROM THE JOB MARKET

A LITTLE HELP FROM THE JOB MARKET

A LITTLE HELP FROM THE JOB MARKET

The major stock market averages opened modestly higher today following the monthly jobs report (see below). The Dow is currently up 148 pts and the SPX is up .4%. The energy sector is up nearly 2% on continued gains in oil prices. Transports, banks, and semiconductors are also in the green. On the other hand, retailers, gold miners and utilities are down in early trading. Commodities are moving higher as well. WTI crude oil is back up around $55/barrel. Copper is up .3% and iron is up more than 3%. Bonds are falling back, giving up yesterday’s gains. The 5-year and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 2.51% and 2.69%. By the way, Treasury yields have been hovering around 1-year lows this month, a condition that usually reflects a softening economic outlook and a more dovish Federal Reserve. But on days when we get some encouraging economic news—like today’s jobs report—yields tend to jump.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 23, 2017

Stocks opened higher yet again this morning (Dow +48 pts; SPX +.27%). In fact, the Dow is back to within 230 points of its all-time high. Ten of eleven major market sectors are higher in early trading, led by defensives like healthcare, consumer staples and utilities. Semiconductors, retailers and gold miners are lower on the day. The VIX Index is back down to 10.6 and VIX futures are up around 12.2. The dollar is unchanged on the day and commodities are mostly lower. WTI crude oil is trading up toward $51.30/barrel. Bonds are mostly unchanged. The 5-year Treasury yield is hovering around 1.80% and the 10-year Treasury is at 2.25%. At these yields, it’s hard to argue for a lot of opportunity in fixed income investing.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

February 22, 2017

Stocks opened mixed this morning (Dow +3 pts; SPX -.18%). The Dow very briefly touched a record intra-day high of 20,766. Gold miners and transports are down more than 1%. Energy stocks are also lower in early trading. There are a few stand-outs (TOL +5%, AET +1.4%, FB +1.8%, DOW +3.6%) but most stocks are taking a breather. Most commodities are also lower today. WTI crude oil is down 1.4% to $53.50/barrel. Bonds prices are mostly unchanged. The 5- and 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 1.90% and 2.42%, respectively.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

November 23, 2016

he major stock market averages opened mixed this morning (Dow +32 pts; SPX -.14%) after hitting fresh all-time highs yesterday. The Russell 2000 Index, by the way, also hit a new high. Industrials and financials are up nicely but most other sectors are lower. Real estate and utilities sectors are down the most in early trading. And the gold miners continue to sink. Indicated market volatility (VIX Index) has fallen from 23 to 12 in the last 3 weeks. The VIX is up a bit this morning to trade around 12.8. The dollar continues to rise (now up about 3.5% this month) in the wake of the election and although gold is down 7% this month, most other commodities are holding in there. WTI crude is up a bit to trade around $48/barrel after the Iraqi prime minster said his country is willing to abide by an OPEC production cut. Bonds are selling off again today. The 5- -year Treasury yield is up to 1.85% (matching a 5-year high) and the 10-year is trading at 2.39%.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.

May 24, 2016

By the way, one of the key bear arguments—articulated by Zacks Investment Research this morning—is that a falling 10-year yield and a rising 5-year yield tells us the stock market is poised for a pullback. That is, a “flattening yield curve” usually portends bad times for the economy and stocks. And it is true that lower long-term rates indicate very subdued inflation and (therefore) growth expectations. If the economy does begin to pick up, we’ll see the 10-year yield rise as well. But the current environment isn’t that easily analyzed. Our own bond yields are distorted by the fact that ultra-low/negative rates around the world are encouraging global investors to run for cover in US Treasuries. So there’s enormous external buying pressure keeping our Treasury rates lower than they ordinarily would be.


*The foregoing content reflects the author's personal opinions which may not coincide with the opinions of the firm, and are subject to change at any time without notice. Content provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as investment advice or a recommendation regarding the purchase or sale of any security. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions, or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. All investing involves risk. Asset allocation and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Finally, please understand that–as with other social media–if you leave a comment, it will be made public.